Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction

Toluca
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca· Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico 22/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 9.5
1.77
SignalGOODModel45%RiskMediumGap+11.0%
Toluca Rest
3 days
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
46%1.58
X
26%4.10
2
28%5.20
Double Chance
1X
72%1.15
X2
54%2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.66
No
50%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.04 = 2.31
Over 1.5
72%1.18
Over 2.5
45%1.62
Over 3.5
23%2.50
Under 1.5
28%4.47
Under 2.5
55%2.25
Under 3.5
77%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 3.7 = 8.9
Over 8.5
51%1.54
Over 9.5
37%1.97
Over 10.5
28%2.48
Under 8.5
49%2.25
Under 9.5
63%1.77
Under 10.5
72%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.6 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%1.41
Over 4.5
55%1.84
Under 3.5
28%2.50
Under 4.5
45%1.86

Match Events

14'J. Diaz PriceAssist: Helinho
17'HelinhoFoul
46'P. Bennevendo INS. Cordova out
57'V. ArteagaAssist: R. Morales
63'S. CordovaAssist: R. Lopez
66'V. Guzman INN. Castro out
66'J. Angulo INF. Romero out
66'A. Vega INJ. Gallardo out
76'B. A. Garcia Caprizo INC. Carrillo out
80'R. LopezFoul
86'D. Barbosa INS. Simon out
88'Juninho INA. Medina out
90+1'R. Morales ING. Martinez out
90+6'U. Antuna INT. Leone out

Lineups

Toluca
4-2-3-1Coach: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
4-3-3Coach: Esteban Solari
Hugo Gonzalez1H. GonzalezHugo Gonzalez
Diego Barbosa2D. BarbosaDiego Barbosa
Bruno Méndez4B. MéndezBruno Méndez
Luan13LuanLuan
Brian García17B. GarcíaBrian García
Víctor Guzmán7V. GuzmánVíctor Guzmán
Fernando Arce Juárez24F. Arce JuárezFernando Arce Juárez
Helinho11HelinhoHelinho
Jesús Ricardo Angulo10J. Ricardo AnguloJesús Ricardo Angulo
Alexis Vega9A. VegaAlexis Vega
Jorge Díaz29J. DíazJorge Díaz
Keylor Navas1K. NavasKeylor Navas
Pablo Bennevendo2P. BennevendoPablo Bennevendo
Nathan Silva6N. SilvaNathan Silva
Rubén Duarte5R. DuarteRubén Duarte
Álvaro Angulo77Á. AnguloÁlvaro Angulo
Rodrigo Lopez7R. LopezRodrigo Lopez
Pedro Vite45P. VitePedro Vite
Victor Arteaga18V. ArteagaVictor Arteaga
Uriel Antuna21U. AntunaUriel Antuna
Juninho23JuninhoJuninho
Robert Morales31R. MoralesRobert Morales

Toluca Substitutes

20Jesús GallardoD
5Franco RomeroM
8Nicolás CastroM
191Carlos CarrilloF
19Santiago SimónM
22Luis GarcíaG
6Federico PereiraD
25Everardo LópezD
3Antonio BriseñoD
35Érick GutiérrezM

U.N.A.M. - Pumas Substitutes

17Sebastián CórdovaM
22Alan MedinaF
24Antonio LeoneD
9Guillermo MartínezF
35Pablo LaraG
12Cristian CalderónD
199Kleber CarranzaD
34Angel AzuajeD
20Santiago TrigosM
203Stanley GarcíaM

Match Stats

TolucaU.N.A.M. - Pumas
66%Ball Possession34%
9Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards1
17Total Shots8
4Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal4
11Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box4
8Blocked Shots1
4Fouls11
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves3
576Total Passes306
489Passes Accurate234
85%Pass Accuracy76%

Team Comparison

TolucaToluca
U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
1813Elo Rating 1660
2.70Attack 0.85
2.54Defense 1.41
100%Hit Rate 23%
11.1Shots per Game 15.6
4.6Shots on Target 4.6
4.5Corners per Game 6.1
1.6Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+153 Elo
📈BTTS Trend86% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

TolucaToluca
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Toluca 41%Draw 59%0% U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2.95Avg Goals
86%BTTS Rate
41%Over 2.5

Recent Form

TolucaToluca
2W1D2L
19/07/2026
Guadalajara ChivasToluca
02
W
10/07/2026
Atlante FCToluca
33
D
04/07/2026
CancúnToluca
10
L
31/05/2026
TolucaTigres UANL
6050
W
11/05/2026
CF PachucaToluca
20
L
U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
1W1D3L
19/07/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasCF Pachuca
03
L
12/07/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasAmerica de Cali
01
L
05/07/2026
CancúnU.N.A.M. - Pumas
03
W
25/05/2026
U.N.A.M. - PumasCruz Azul
12
L
22/05/2026
Cruz AzulU.N.A.M. - Pumas
00
D

Referee Profile

Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico · 25 matches analysed

4.0Avg Yellows
4.3Avg Cards
25.1Avg Fouls
Stricter than 28% of referees analysed

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1TolucaToluca961220:9+1119LWWWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas953117:8+918DWWDW
3Club AmericaClub America852117:8+917DLWWW
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul950416:15+115LWWWL
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro842211:8+314DWWLD
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana842212:10+214DLWLW
7LeonLeon942312:10+214DWLDW
8PueblaPuebla942311:11014DLWLW
9AtlasAtlas942313:15-214DLDLW
10MonterreyMonterrey841314:10+413WDLLW
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca933315:10+512DWWDD
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas933312:13-112DLWLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis923411:16-59WLLWD
14Atlante FCAtlante FC91538:13-58DLDDL
15NecaxaNecaxa922510:16-68LLDLD
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL91449:13-47LDDDW
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna92169:15-67WWLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez91086:23-173WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1TolucaToluca920:919
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas917:818
3Club AmericaClub America817:817
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul916:1515
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro811:814
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana812:1014
7LeonLeon912:1014
8PueblaPuebla911:1114
9AtlasAtlas913:1514
10MonterreyMonterrey814:1013
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca915:1012
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas912:1312
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis911:169
14Atlante FCAtlante FC98:138
15NecaxaNecaxa910:168
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL99:137
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna99:157
18FC JuarezFC Juarez96:233
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Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Liga MX fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Toluca have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Toluca and U.N.A.M. - Pumas have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.95 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.