Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca Prediction

Liga MXMexico Mexico · Apertura - 1
Guadalajara Chivas
0-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Toluca
Estadio Akron, Zapopan· Daniel Quintero Huitrón, Mexico 19/07/2026
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
0-2
Finished
TolucaToluca

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.34
SignalGOODModel46%RiskMediumGap+9.7%
Guadalajara Chivas Rest
14 days
Toluca Rest
8 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
47%2.20
X
30%3.50
2
23%3.05
Double Chance
1X
77%1.34
X2
53%1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.56
No
50%2.27
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1.01 = 2.21
Over 1.5
68%1.19
Over 2.5
39%1.68
Over 3.5
18%2.62
Under 1.5
32%4.26
Under 2.5
61%2.12
Under 3.5
82%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.9 = 9.5
Over 8.5
61%1.55
Over 9.5
50%1.94
Over 10.5
36%2.48
Under 8.5
39%2.23
Under 9.5
50%1.78
Under 10.5
64%1.46
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.7 = 5.1
Over 3.5
72%-
Over 4.5
55%-
Under 3.5
28%-
Under 4.5
45%-

Match Events

19'F. RomeroFoul
42'A. Vega(Penalty)
46'K. Castaneda INB. Gutierrez out
50'A. SepulvedaUnsportsmanlike conduct
54'R. AlvaradoFoul
56'R. Ledezma INA. Gonzalez out
59'E. Gutierrez INHelinho out
61'J. GallardoFoul
68'O. Govea INJ. Carrillo out
70'A. Vega INV. Guzman out
74'J. GallardoAssist: Helinho
86'D. Campillo Del Campo INR. Marin out
86'D. Aguirre INM. Gomez out
87'N. Castro INBruno Mendez out
87'J. Angulo INF. Arce out
90+6'J. CarrilloFoul

Lineups

Guadalajara Chivas
3-1-4-2Coach: Gabriel Milito
Toluca
4-2-3-1Coach: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
Raúl Rangel1R. RangelRaúl Rangel
Daniel Aguirre23D. AguirreDaniel Aguirre
Luis Romo7L. RomoLuis Romo
Diego Campillo3D. CampilloDiego Campillo
Fernando González28F. GonzálezFernando González
Richard Ledezma37R. LedezmaRichard Ledezma
Omar Govea6O. GoveaOmar Govea
Kevin Castañeda19K. CastañedaKevin Castañeda
Bryan González5B. GonzálezBryan González
Roberto Alvarado25R. AlvaradoRoberto Alvarado
Ángel Sepúlveda9Á. SepúlvedaÁngel Sepúlveda
Luis García22L. GarcíaLuis García
Santiago Simón19S. SimónSantiago Simón
Federico Pereira6F. PereiraFederico Pereira
Everardo López25E. LópezEverardo López
Jesús Gallardo20J. GallardoJesús Gallardo
Franco Romero5F. RomeroFranco Romero
Érick Gutiérrez35É. GutiérrezÉrick Gutiérrez
Jesús Ricardo Angulo10J. Ricardo AnguloJesús Ricardo Angulo
Nicolás Castro8N. CastroNicolás Castro
Alexis Vega9A. VegaAlexis Vega
Jorge Díaz29J. DíazJorge Díaz

Guadalajara Chivas Substitutes

11Brian GutiérrezM
34Armando GonzálezF
33Jordan CarrilloM
17Ricardo MarínF
24Miguel GómezD
13Óscar WhalleyG
4Miguel TapiasD
2José CastilloD
18Jonathan PerezM
16Luis Gabriel ReyD

Toluca Substitutes

11HelinhoF
7Víctor GuzmánM
4Bruno MéndezD
24Fernando Arce JuárezM
1Hugo GonzalezG
2Diego BarbosaD
3Antonio BriseñoD
17Brian GarcíaD
13LuanD
191Carlos CarrilloF

Match Stats

Guadalajara ChivasToluca
40%Ball Possession60%
9Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
13Total Shots14
4Shots on Goal9
6Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box10
3Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots1
14Fouls13
1Offsides2
7Goalkeeper Saves4
354Total Passes563
285Passes Accurate499
81%Pass Accuracy89%

Team Comparison

Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
TolucaToluca
1748Elo Rating 1813
2.66Attack 2.70
2.47Defense 2.54
81%Hit Rate 100%
9.1Shots per Game 11.1
4.5Shots on Target 4.6
5.3Corners per Game 4.5
0.3Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend19% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
TolucaToluca
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Guadalajara Chivas 0%Draw 31%69% Toluca
1.81Avg Goals
19%BTTS Rate
42%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
1W2D2L
04/07/2026
Correcaminos UatGuadalajara Chivas
00
D
17/05/2026
Guadalajara ChivasCruz Azul
12
L
14/05/2026
Cruz AzulGuadalajara Chivas
22
D
10/05/2026
Guadalajara ChivasTigres UANL
20
W
03/05/2026
Tigres UANLGuadalajara Chivas
31
L
TolucaToluca
2W1D2L
10/07/2026
Atlante FCToluca
33
D
04/07/2026
CancúnToluca
10
L
31/05/2026
TolucaTigres UANL
6050
W
11/05/2026
CF PachucaToluca
20
L
07/05/2026
TolucaLos Angeles FC
40
W

Referee Profile

Daniel Quintero Huitrón, Mexico · 20 matches analysed

4.1Avg Yellows
4.4Avg Cards
23.8Avg Fouls
Stricter than 35% of referees analysed

League Table

Liga MX 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1TolucaToluca961220:9+1119LWWWW
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas953117:8+918DWWDW
3Club AmericaClub America852117:8+917DLWWW
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul950416:15+115LWWWL
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro842211:8+314DWWLD
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana842212:10+214DLWLW
7LeonLeon942312:10+214DWLDW
8PueblaPuebla942311:11014DLWLW
9AtlasAtlas942313:15-214DLDLW
10MonterreyMonterrey841314:10+413WDLLW
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca933315:10+512DWWDD
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas933312:13-112DLWLD
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis923411:16-59WLLWD
14Atlante FCAtlante FC91538:13-58DLDDL
15NecaxaNecaxa922510:16-68LLDLD
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL91449:13-47LDDDW
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna92169:15-67WWLDL
18FC JuarezFC Juarez91086:23-173WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1TolucaToluca920:919
2Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas917:818
3Club AmericaClub America817:817
4Cruz AzulCruz Azul916:1515
5Club QueretaroClub Queretaro811:814
6Club TijuanaClub Tijuana812:1014
7LeonLeon912:1014
8PueblaPuebla911:1114
9AtlasAtlas913:1514
10MonterreyMonterrey814:1013
11CF PachucaCF Pachuca915:1012
12U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas912:1312
13Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis911:169
14Atlante FCAtlante FC98:138
15NecaxaNecaxa910:168
16Tigres UANLTigres UANL99:137
17Santos LagunaSantos Laguna99:157
18FC JuarezFC Juarez96:233
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Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Liga MX fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Guadalajara Chivas have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Toluca have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Guadalajara Chivas and Toluca have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.81 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.