Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca Prediction
Mexico · Apertura - 1
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca: the result in context
Toluca beat Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 in the Liga MX on 19 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.9 goals a game. Toluca tend to win more corners, 9.4 a game to 6.7 for Guadalajara Chivas.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Guadalajara Chivas
Avg ratingAvg rating
1R. Rangel
23D. Aguirre
C7L. Romo
3D. Campillo
28F. González
37R. Ledezma
6O. Govea
19K. Castañeda
5B. González
25R. Alvarado
9Á. Sepúlveda
22L. García
19S. Simón
6F. Pereira
25E. López
20J. Gallardo
5F. Romero
35É. Gutiérrez
10J. Ricardo Angulo
8N. Castro
C9A. Vega
29J. DíazGuadalajara Chivas Substitutes
Toluca Substitutes
Match Stats
Guadalajara ChivasToluca Team Comparison
Guadalajara ChivasTolucaAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Guadalajara Chivas- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Toluca- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Guadalajara Chivas2Wins · 20%4Wins · 40%Previous meetings
01/03/2026TolucaGuadalajara Chivas21/09/2025Guadalajara ChivasToluca16/02/2025TolucaGuadalajara Chivas07/07/2024Guadalajara ChivasToluca12/05/2024TolucaGuadalajara Chivas09/05/2024Guadalajara ChivasToluca31/01/2024Guadalajara ChivasToluca03/10/2023TolucaGuadalajara Chivas22/01/2023Guadalajara ChivasToluca05/09/2022TolucaGuadalajara ChivasRecent Form
Guadalajara Chivas
Correcaminos UatGuadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
Cruz AzulCruz AzulGuadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
Tigres UANLTigres UANLGuadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
Club Tijuana
NecaxaGuadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
PueblaTigres UANLGuadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
U.N.A.M. - PumasToluca
Atlante FCToluca
CancúnTolucaTolucaTigres UANL
CF PachucaTolucaToluca
Los Angeles FCTolucaCF PachucaLos Angeles FCTolucaToluca
Leon
MazatlánToluca
Club AmericaTolucaReferee Profile
Compared with other referees
4.45 cards a match, 0.26 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.71).
Cards come from 29 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37:26 | +11 | 32 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38:23 | +15 | 30 | DDDLW |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26:15 | +11 | 30 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35:21 | +14 | 27 | WDDDD |
| 5 |  Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27:30 | -3 | 27 | LWWLW |
| 6 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:20 | +3 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23:21 | +2 | 23 | DLDWL |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29:20 | +9 | 22 | WWWLL |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25:22 | +3 | 22 | LDDWD |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 21 | LDLWW |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:26 | -2 | 21 | DWDLW |
| 12 |  Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18:23 | -5 | 20 | LLLLL |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 | WLLLD |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:24 | -5 | 19 | LLWWD |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 15 | LLDLD |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16:26 | -10 | 14 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:34 | -21 | 11 | WWDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 37:26 | 32 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 38:23 | 30 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 26:15 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 35:21 | 27 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 27:30 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 23:21 | 23 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 29:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 25:22 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 26:25 | 21 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 24:26 | 21 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 18:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 19:23 | 19 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 19:24 | 19 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 16:26 | 14 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 13:34 | 11 |
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About the Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca forecast
The forecasts for this Liga MX match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Guadalajara Chivas and Toluca in the Liga MX table
This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd in the Liga MX, 3 points ahead of Toluca in 4th. League goal record so far: Guadalajara Chivas 26-15, Toluca 35-21. The full standings are on the Liga MX Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.