Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction

Tukums
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
BFC Daugavpils
12/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel17%SurpriseHighGap+9.7%
Tukums Rest
13 days
BFC Daugavpils Rest
12 days

Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils: the result in context

Tukums and BFC Daugavpils drew 1-1 in the Virsliga on 12 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. BFC Daugavpils tend to win more corners, 5.0 a game to 2.5 for Tukums.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
42%2.40
X
25%3.42
2
33%2.50
Double Chance
1X
67%1.42
X2
58%1.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.55
No
56%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.5
63%1.20
Over 2.5
39%1.69
Over 3.5
19%2.72
Under 1.5
37%3.96
Under 2.5
61%2.05
Under 3.5
81%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

25'K. VolkovsFoul
46'K. VolkovsFoul
46'K. VolkovsFoul
49'Leoni INM. Susts out
61'A. Garzha INM. Sylla out
65'R. Reingolcs INR. Melkis out
65'B. Samoilovs INJ. Toba out
68'Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand INR. Skrebels out
75'R. MelkisAssist: M. Derkach
80'A. Traore IND. Kivinda out
82'Anmanis Kaspars INR. Baumanis out
83'M. Derkach IND. Valmiers out
88'R. NdjikiAssist: J. Yakubu

Team Comparison

TukumsTukums
BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils
1317Elo Rating 1526
0.14Attack 1.49
1.60Defense 2.64
0%Hit Rate 86%
7.3Shots per Game 11.4
2.0Shots on Target 5.3
2.5Corners per Game 5.0
1.8Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

TukumsTukums
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.6 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

TukumsTukums2Wins · 20%
Draws330%
BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils5Wins · 50%
2.4Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Virsliga21/04/2026
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
11
Virsliga30/08/2025
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
01
Virsliga21/06/2025
BFC DaugavpilsTukums
12
Virsliga30/04/2025
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
00
Virsliga07/03/2025
BFC DaugavpilsTukums
30
Virsliga21/09/2024
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
00
Virsliga03/07/2024
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
12
Virsliga12/05/2024
BFC DaugavpilsTukums
41
Virsliga30/03/2024
BFC DaugavpilsTukums
31
Virsliga01/09/2023
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
30

Recent Form

TukumsTukums
2W4D4L
30/05/2026
FK LiepajaTukums
30
L
25/05/2026
Rīgas FSTukums
31
L
20/05/2026
TukumsRiga
13
L
15/05/2026
GrobiņaTukums
33
D
11/05/2026
Super NovaTukums
11
D
07/05/2026
TukumsOgre United
61
W
01/05/2026
TukumsFS Jelgava
50
W
26/04/2026
AudaTukums
21
L
21/04/2026
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
11
D
17/04/2026
TukumsFK Liepaja
22
D
BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils
2W3D5L
31/05/2026
FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils
11
D
26/05/2026
BFC DaugavpilsAuda
01
L
21/05/2026
BFC DaugavpilsOgre United
31
W
17/05/2026
FK LiepajaBFC Daugavpils
21
L
13/05/2026
BFC DaugavpilsRīgas FS
01
L
08/05/2026
BFC DaugavpilsRiga
13
L
02/05/2026
GrobiņaBFC Daugavpils
11
D
27/04/2026
BFC DaugavpilsSuper Nova
01
L
21/04/2026
TukumsBFC Daugavpils
11
D
16/04/2026
BFC DaugavpilsFS Jelgava
10
W

League Table

Virsliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS35285287:24+6389WWWWW
2RigaRiga35258295:33+6283DWWWW
3AudaAuda36227763:39+2473WWWLW
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3614101243:38+552DWWWW
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja361491351:50+151WDDWL
6Super NovaSuper Nova361171836:54-1840DDLLL
7FS JelgavaFS Jelgava36981941:61-2035WLLLL
8GrobiņaGrobiņa366111928:66-3829LLLWL
9TukumsTukums365102145:69-2425LLDLL
10Ogre UnitedOgre United36472534:89-5519LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3587:2489
2RigaRiga3595:3383
3AudaAuda3663:3973
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3643:3852
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651:5051
6Super NovaSuper Nova3636:5440
7FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3641:6135
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3628:6629
9TukumsTukums3645:6925
10Ogre UnitedOgre United3634:8919

About the Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils forecast

The forecasts for this Virsliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Tukums and BFC Daugavpils in the Virsliga table

The table shows a wide gap: BFC Daugavpils are 4th in the Virsliga, while Tukums sit 9th, 27 points behind. League goal record so far: Tukums 45-69, BFC Daugavpils 43-38. The full standings are on the Virsliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.