V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction

J1 League

Japan · Regular Season - 8

V-varen Nagasaki

1-1

Finished

HT 1-0

Cerezo Osaka

Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki·Atsushi Kamimura 19/09/2026

V-varen Nagasaki

1-1

Finished

Cerezo Osaka

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality

Complete

Match Importance

4.2 / 10

Value Analysis

65%Trust

Corners Total

Corners Under 10.5

1.54

SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+2.2%

V-varen Nagasaki Rest

6 days

Cerezo Osaka Rest

6 days

V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka: result, form and history

V-varen Nagasaki and Cerezo Osaka drew 1-1 in the J1 League on 19 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Atsushi Kamimura averages 3.26 cards a game, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result

38%3.30

29%3.50

33%2.07

Double Chance

67%1.73

62%1.30

Both Teams to Score

Yes

57%1.65

43%2.15

Goals

Projected Goals: 1.48 + 1.27 = 2.75

Over 1.5

77%1.22

Over 2.5

48%1.77

Over 3.5

28%2.75

Under 1.5

23%3.90

Under 2.5

52%2.04

Under 3.5

72%1.40

Corners

Projected Corners: 5 + 4.6 = 9.7

Over 8.5

57%1.46

Over 9.5

46%1.82

Over 10.5

35%2.26

Under 8.5

43%2.43

Under 9.5

54%1.92

Under 10.5

65%1.54

Cards

Projected Cards: 1.4 + 1.2 = 2.6

Over 3.5

26%-

Over 4.5

12%-

Under 3.5

74%-

Under 4.5

88%-

Match Events

17'Shinnosuke Hatanaka INJavi Hernández out

17'Riku YamadaFoul

34'Matheus JesusAssist: Hijiri Onaga

41'Jackson IrvineFoul

48'Penalty confirmedKosei Okazawa

50'Shunya YonedaFoul

51'Lucas Fernandes(Penalty)

58'Shunya Yoneda INAsahi Masuyama out

58'Riku Yamada INDiego Pituca out

68'Kosuke NakamuraTime wasting

73'Thiago Santana INTenmu Matsumoto out

77'Lucas Fernandes INThiago Andrade out

82'Matheus Jesus INRyogo Yamasaki out

83'Ikki Arai INKanta Doi out

84'Dion CoolsFoul

88'Kosei Okazawa INSatoki Uejo out

Lineups

V-varen Nagasaki

3-4-2-1Coach: T. Takagi

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1Coach: Pablo Machín

Avg rating6.75

Avg rating6.56

7.11M. Goto

6.850R. Shindo

6.729I. Arai

6.36Y. Egawa

6.123S. Yoneda

6.25H. Yamaguchi

6.624R. Yamada

7.122H. Onaga

8.210M. Jesus

6.841M. Hasegawa

6.49T. Santana

6.023K. Nakamura

6.127D. Cools

6.444S. Hatanaka

7.04R. Inoue

6.816H. Okuda

7.110S. Tanaka

6.336J. Irvine

6.466A. Ohata

7.677L. Fernandes

6.628K. Okazawa

6.39S. Sakuragawa

V-varen Nagasaki Substitutes

8Y. Iwasaki

21Diego Pituca58'for Riku Yamada7.2

31K. Doi83'for Ikki Arai6.5

13G. Hatano

88A. Masuyama58'for Shunya Yoneda6.7

34T. Matsumoto73'for Thiago Santana6.5

20K. Nakamura

19T. Sawada

18R. Yamasaki82'for Matheus Jesus6.9

Cerezo Osaka Substitutes

2T. Nakamura

19P. Sabbag

17R. Sakata

97T. Takahashi

11Thiago Andrade77'for Lucas Fernandes6.5

7S. Uejo88'for Kosei Okazawa6.2

31K. Abe

15Javi Hernández17'for Shinnosuke Hatanaka6.7

Match Stats

V-varen NagasakiCerezo Osaka

44%Ball Possession56%

7Corner Kicks4

2Yellow Cards3

14Total Shots17

1Shots on Goal6

7Shots off Goal7

10Shots Inside Box11

4Shots Outside Box6

6Blocked Shots4

10Fouls9

6Offsides1

5Goalkeeper Saves0

375Total Passes478

306Passes Accurate388

8Free Kicks9

V-varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka

1527Elo Rating 1591

1.44Attack 1.59

1.90Defense 1.42

27%Hit Rate 34%

13.2Shots per Game 10.5

3.7Shots on Target 3.2

3.1Corners per Game 2.7

2.0Cards per Game 3.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

V-varen Nagasaki

Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Cerezo Osaka

Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

V-varen Nagasaki1Wins · 50%

Draws00%

Cerezo Osaka

1Wins · 50%

3.0Avg Goals

50%Both teams scored1 of 2

50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

09/05/2026

Cerezo Osaka

V-varen Nagasaki

28/02/2026

V-varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka

Recent Form

12/09/2026

V-varen Nagasaki

Nagoya Grampus

09/09/2026

Kochi United

V-varen Nagasaki

26/08/2026

V-varen Nagasaki

Ehime FC

21/08/2026

Kashiwa Reysol

V-varen Nagasaki

15/08/2026

Fagiano Okayama

V-varen Nagasaki

09/08/2026

V-varen Nagasaki

Kyoto Sanga

17/07/2026

Utrecht

V-varen Nagasaki

29/08/2026

Vissel Kobe

Cerezo Osaka

26/08/2026

Cerezo Osaka

FC Gifu

22/08/2026

Cerezo Osaka

Shimizu S-pulse

29/07/2026

Cerezo Osaka

Borussia Dortmund

15/07/2026

Cerezo Osaka

Tochigi City

Referee Profile

Atsushi Kamimura103 matches

3.26Cards per match

3.04Yellow cards per match

0.22Red cards per match

23.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Atsushi Kamimura3.26

Other referees2.69

3.26 cards a match, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.69).

Cards come from 23 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	30:10	+20	27	DWWWL
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	27:8	+19	27	WDWWW
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	29:10	+19	26	WLWWW
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	25:19	+6	25	WDLWW
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	18:11	+7	23	DLWLW
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	25:18	+7	22	WWWLD
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	21:23	-2	21	WWWLW
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	25:21	+4	20	LDWWD
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	16:12	+4	18	DDDDW
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	15:17	-2	16	LWLLL
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	14:18	-4	14	DDWWL
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	12:19	-7	14	DDLDD
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	10:20	-10	14	LLDWW
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	15:19	-4	12	LWLDD
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	14:21	-7	11	DWDLL
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	15:23	-8	10	DDLLW
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	12:22	-10	9	LLLLL
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	9:21	-12	8	WDLLL
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	13:21	-8	7	LLLWL
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	12:24	-12	7	DLDDL

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	30:10	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	27:8	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	29:10	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	25:19	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	18:11	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	25:18	22
7	Urawa	12	21:23	21
8	Kashima	12	25:21	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	16:12	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	15:17	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	14:18	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	12:19	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	10:20	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	15:19	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	14:21	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	15:23	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	12:22	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	9:21	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	13:21	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	12:24	7

Champions LeagueRelegation

About the V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

V-varen Nagasaki and Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League table

Cerezo Osaka and V-varen Nagasaki are close in the J1 League table, 12th and 14th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: V-varen Nagasaki 15-19, Cerezo Osaka 12-19. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

V-varen Nagasaki and Cerezo Osaka have met only 2 times recently, averaging 3.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka: result, form and history

Match Forecasts

Match Events