V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction

Peace Stadium, Nagasaki 12/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
60%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.67
SignalNEUTRALModel43%RiskMediumGap-0.2%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.67
SignalHIGHModel63%RiskMediumGap+5.4%
V-varen Nagasaki Rest
3 days
Nagoya Grampus Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%3.42
X
25%3.60
2
31%2.00
Double Chance
1X
69%1.75
X2
56%1.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.55
No
39%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.49 + 1.46 = 2.95
Over 1.5
81%1.20
Over 2.5
60%1.67
Over 3.5
37%2.62
Under 1.5
19%4.20
Under 2.5
40%2.16
Under 3.5
63%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.8 = 9.5
Over 8.5
55%1.51
Over 9.5
43%1.72
Over 10.5
35%2.13
Under 8.5
45%2.43
Under 9.5
57%1.99
Under 10.5
65%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.4 = 2.9
Over 3.5
33%-
Over 4.5
17%-
Under 3.5
67%-
Under 4.5
83%-

Match Events

36'Matheus Jesus(Penalty)
57'Thiago SantanaAssist: Motoki Hasegawa
61'Yuya Yamagishi INTomoya Koyamatsu out
61'Shuhei Tokumoto INTaichi Kikuchi out
61'Ryuji Izumi INYuki Nogami out
62'Thiago SantanaFoul
68'Katsuhiro Nakayama INTsukasa Morishima out
80'Thiago Santana INTenmu Matsumoto out
83'Hidemasa Koda INShungo Sugiura out
86'Matheus Jesus INRyogo Yamasaki out
86'Riku Yamada INDiego Pituca out
89'Hijiri Onaga INTakashi Sawada out
89'Motoki Hasegawa INKanta Doi out
90+6'Haruya FujiiFoul

Lineups

V-varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1Coach: T. Takagi
Nagoya Grampus
4-1-2-1-2Coach: Michael Petrovic
M. Goto1M. GotoM. Goto
R. Shindo50R. ShindoR. Shindo
I. Arai29I. AraiI. Arai
Y. Egawa6Y. EgawaY. Egawa
S. Yoneda23S. YonedaS. Yoneda
H. Yamaguchi5H. YamaguchiH. Yamaguchi
R. Yamada24R. YamadaR. Yamada
H. Onaga22H. OnagaH. Onaga
Matheus Jesus10M. JesusMatheus Jesus
M. Hasegawa41M. HasegawaM. Hasegawa
Thiago Santana9T. SantanaThiago Santana
D. Schmidt1D. SchmidtD. Schmidt
H. Koda19H. KodaH. Koda
H. Fujii13H. FujiiH. Fujii
T. Hara70T. HaraT. Hara
K. Nakayama27K. NakayamaK. Nakayama
S. Inagaki15S. InagakiS. Inagaki
Y. Kimura22Y. KimuraY. Kimura
S. Tokumoto55S. TokumotoS. Tokumoto
T. Takamine31T. TakamineT. Takamine
R. Izumi7R. IzumiR. Izumi
Y. Yamagishi11Y. YamagishiY. Yamagishi

V-varen Nagasaki Substitutes

34T. MatsumotoM
20K. NakamuraM
19T. SawadaM
18R. YamasakiF
11N. CampbellF
21Diego PitucaM
31K. DoiD
13G. HatanoG
8Y. IwasakiF

Nagoya Grampus Substitutes

58T. KoyamatsuM
14T. MorishimaM
2Y. NogamiD
41M. OnoM
35A. PisanoG
30S. SugiuraF
47Yuzo TakeuchiD
49Sakuto FukayaM
33T. KikuchiM

Match Stats

V-varen NagasakiNagoya Grampus
32%Ball Possession68%
3Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots12
9Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal8
9Shots Inside Box9
7Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots2
17Fouls13
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves6
322Total Passes655
261Passes Accurate578
13Free Kicks17

Team Comparison

V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
1507Elo Rating 1491
1.37Attack 0.48
1.95Defense 1.05
42%Hit Rate 14%
14.8Shots per Game 11.5
4.9Shots on Target 1.9
4.3Corners per Game 4.2
1.7Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy2.95 goals
📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 2 historical meetings

V-varen Nagasaki 46%Draw 0%54% Nagoya Grampus
3.46Avg Goals
100%BTTS Rate
100%Over 2.5

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia752019:6+1317DWWDW
2Vissel KobeVissel Kobe751111:5+616WWWWL
3Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol750213:10+315WLLWW
4Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima742119:6+1314WLWDD
5FC TokyoFC Tokyo742113:8+514WWDWW
6Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama741210:8+213WWWLD
7Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale733113:9+412WWLWD
8KashimaKashima740314:13+112LLLWW
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos732211:9+211DWDLW
10Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka73136:11-510LDWLW
11Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock723211:9+29LDWDW
12UrawaUrawa730413:17-49LWWWL
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse72144:7-37WLDLL
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki72149:14-57WLDLL
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka71338:13-56LLDDL
16Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus72057:13-66LLLWW
17Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga71249:14-55LLDWL
18Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka71159:11-24LDLLL
19Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy70433:9-64DDLLD
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba71156:16-104DWLLL
Champions LeagueRelegation

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this J1 League fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About J1 League

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Key Factors for This Match

V-varen Nagasaki and Nagoya Grampus have met 2 times recently, averaging 3.46 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.