FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction
Japan · Regular Season - 8
Japan National Stadium, Tokyo·Cesar Arturo Ramos 19/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.57
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+5.2%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Over 4.5
1.61
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+7.1%
FC Tokyo Rest
7 days
Nagoya Grampus Rest
7 days
FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus: the result in context
FC Tokyo beat Nagoya Grampus 1-0 in the J1 League on 19 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: FC Tokyo had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Nagoya Grampus.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
171%1.57
X18%4.10
211%5.20
Double Chance
1X89%1.16
X229%2.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.72
No46%2.02
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.89 + 0.86 = 2.75
Over 1.577%1.18
Over 2.548%1.66
Over 3.528%2.56
Under 1.523%4.40
Under 2.552%2.18
Under 3.572%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.2 = 10
Over 8.560%1.62
Over 9.546%2.07
Over 10.536%2.63
Under 8.540%2.13
Under 9.554%1.68
Under 10.564%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.2 + 1.8 = 3
Over 3.536%-
Over 4.519%-
Under 3.564%-
Under 4.581%-
Match Events
7'Takahiro KoFoul
56'Kota TawaratsumidaAssist: Kashif Bangnagande
58'Kota Tawaratsumida INMotoki Nagakura out
61'Yuya Yamagishi INMateus out
61'Kein SatoFoul
68'Takahiro Ko
70'Marcelo INKento Hashimoto out
75'Ryuji Izumi INHidemasa Koda out
75'Takuya Uchida INTsukasa Morishima out
77'Kein Sato INHirokazu Ishihara out
77'Kashif Bangnagande INMasato Morishige out
78'Rikizo MatsuhashiDissent
79'Yudai Kimura INTomoya Koyamatsu out
90+3'Kento HashimotoFoul
90+5'Katsuhiro NakayamaFoul
Lineups
FC TokyoNagoya Grampus
3-4-2-1Coach: Michael PetrovicAvg ratingAvg rating
81K. Seung-Gyu
2S. Muroya
24A. Scholz
4H. Inamura
6K. Bangnagande
7S. Anzai
27K. Tokiwa
8T. Ko
33K. Tawaratsumida
10K. Sato
9M. Ryan
1D. Schmidt
70T. Hara
13H. Fujii
55S. Tokumoto
17T. Uchida
15S. Inagaki
31T. Takamine
27K. Nakayama
7R. Izumi
22Y. Kimura
11Y. YamagishiFC Tokyo Substitutes
1H. Tanaka
71F. Yamada
18K. Hashimoto70'for Marcelo90+3'
22H. Ishihara77'for Kein Sato
3M. Morishige77'for Kashif Bangnagande
26M. Nagakura58'for Kota Tawaratsumida
39T. Nakagawa
15R. Omori
44K. Suzuki
Nagoya Grampus Substitutes
33T. Kikuchi
19H. Koda75'for Ryuji Izumi
58T. Koyamatsu79'for Yudai Kimura
10Mateus61'for Yuya Yamagishi
14T. Morishima75'for Takuya Uchida
2Y. Nogami
41M. Ono
3Y. Sato
36Hiroaki Hagi
Match Stats
FC TokyoNagoya Grampus 38%Ball Possession62%
2Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
9Total Shots14
2Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal6
2Shots Inside Box5
7Shots Outside Box9
4Blocked Shots6
19Fouls12
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves1
350Total Passes555
282Passes Accurate477
12Free Kicks18
Team Comparison
FC TokyoNagoya Grampus1718Elo Rating 1552
3.12Attack 1.28
2.86Defense 1.46
66%Hit Rate 14%
21.5Shots per Game 14.5
7.7Shots on Target 4.5
6.5Corners per Game 4.7
0.9Cards per Game 0.8
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+166 Elo
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
Game State Tendencies
FC Tokyo- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (2.5 vs 0.7 in first half)
Nagoya Grampus- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
FC Tokyo5Wins · 50%Draws330%
Nagoya Grampus2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.6Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10
Previous meetings
21/07/2026FC TokyoNagoya Grampus21
31/08/2025Nagoya GrampusFC Tokyo11
26/02/2025FC TokyoNagoya Grampus31
14/09/2024FC TokyoNagoya Grampus41
15/05/2024Nagoya GrampusFC Tokyo31
24/06/2023FC TokyoNagoya Grampus20
18/03/2023Nagoya GrampusFC Tokyo00
29/10/2022Nagoya GrampusFC Tokyo21
20/04/2022FC TokyoNagoya Grampus00
10/10/2021FC TokyoNagoya Grampus21
Recent Form
FC Tokyo6W2D2L
12/09/2026
Gamba OsakaFC Tokyo
Gamba OsakaFC Tokyo02
W06/09/2026FC Tokyo
Kyoto Sanga
02/09/2026FC TokyoKyoto Sanga20
W
Shimizu S-pulseFC Tokyo11
D29/08/2026
V-varen NagasakiFC Tokyo03
W26/08/2026FC Tokyo
Parceiro Nagano
21/08/2026FC TokyoParceiro Nagano60
WFC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba20
W15/08/2026
Vissel KobeFC Tokyo
08/08/2026Vissel KobeFC Tokyo22
DFC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia15
L01/08/2026FC Tokyo
Borussia Dortmund
FC TokyoBorussia Dortmund01
L21/07/2026FC TokyoNagoya Grampus
FC TokyoNagoya Grampus21
WNagoya Grampus2W0D8L
12/09/2026V-varen NagasakiNagoya GrampusNagoya GrampusMachida Zelvia
Sanfrecce HiroshimaNagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
Fagiano OkayamaNagoya GrampusGamba Osaka
KashimaNagoya GrampusNagoya GrampusShimizu S-pulse
V-varen NagasakiNagoya Grampus20
L06/09/2026Nagoya GrampusMachida Zelvia13
L02/09/2026Sanfrecce HiroshimaNagoya Grampus30
L29/08/2026Nagoya GrampusFagiano Okayama21
W26/08/2026Nagoya Grampus
Gainare Tottori
22/08/2026Nagoya GrampusGainare Tottori13
LNagoya GrampusGamba Osaka31
W15/08/2026KashimaNagoya Grampus21
L08/08/2026Nagoya GrampusShimizu S-pulse01
L25/07/2026
Consadole SapporoNagoya Grampus
Consadole SapporoNagoya Grampus10
L21/07/2026FC TokyoNagoya Grampus
FC TokyoNagoya Grampus21
LReferee Profile
4.37Cards per match
4.13Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
24.5Fouls per match
Strictness
Stricter than 36% of referees analysed
Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.
League Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 33:8 | +25 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 31:20 | +11 | 31 | WWWDL |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 32:10 | +22 | 30 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 30:10 | +20 | 29 | DDDWW |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23:14 | +9 | 27 | DWDLW |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29:24 | +5 | 23 | LWLDW |
| 7 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 21:15 | +6 | 22 | DWDDD |
| 8 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 28:24 | +4 | 22 | LLWWW |
| 9 |  Urawa | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23:29 | -6 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16:22 | -6 | 17 | DLLWL |
| 11 |  Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16:25 | -9 | 17 | WLDDL |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19:23 | -4 | 16 | WWDDL |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:23 | -8 | 14 | LLDDW |
| 14 |  Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12:22 | -10 | 14 | WWWDL |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10:23 | -13 | 14 | LLLLD |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:22 | -5 | 13 | DLLWL |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 13 | WWDLD |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 16:24 | -8 | 12 | LDDWD |
| 19 |  Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12:26 | -14 | 9 | LLLLL |
| 20 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14:25 | -11 | 8 | DLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 33:8 | 33 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 31:20 | 31 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 32:10 | 30 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 30:10 | 29 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 23:14 | 27 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 29:24 | 23 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 21:15 | 22 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 28:24 | 22 |
| 9 | Urawa | 14 | 23:29 | 22 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 16:22 | 17 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 16:25 | 17 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 19:23 | 16 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 15:23 | 14 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 12:22 | 14 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 10:23 | 14 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 17:22 | 13 |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 16:24 | 13 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 16:24 | 12 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 12:26 | 9 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 14:25 | 8 |
Champions LeagueRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More J1 League matches
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus 12/09/26
- Urawa vs Fagiano Okayama 13/09/26
- Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba 19/09/26
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka 19/09/26
- Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga 19/09/26
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Mito Hollyhock 19/09/26
- Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol 20/09/26
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka 09/10/26
About the FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus forecast
The forecasts for this J1 League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
FC Tokyo and Nagoya Grampus in the J1 League table
In the J1 League table, FC Tokyo are 1st and Nagoya Grampus 13th, 19 points apart. League goal record so far: FC Tokyo 33-8, Nagoya Grampus 15-23. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.
Key Factors for This Match
FC Tokyo have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.