Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin Prediction

Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro·M. Ramirez 30/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.33
SignalSTRONGModel56%SurpriseMediumGap+5.1%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.54
SignalHIGHModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+14.4%
Vasco DA Gama Rest
3 days
Independiente Medellin Rest
4 days

Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin: the result in context

Vasco DA Gama beat Independiente Medellin 1-0 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 29 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee M. Ramirez averages 5.88 cards a game, 0.97 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.53
X
29%4.12
2
15%6.10
Double Chance
1X
85%1.12
X2
44%2.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.95
No
56%1.76
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 0.85 = 2.55
Over 1.5
71%1.26
Over 2.5
40%1.90
Over 3.5
20%3.25
Under 1.5
29%3.55
Under 2.5
60%1.89
Under 3.5
80%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 3.3 = 9.1
Over 8.5
57%1.62
Over 9.5
44%2.00
Over 10.5
33%2.50
Under 8.5
43%2.22
Under 9.5
56%1.75
Under 10.5
67%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.8 = 4.6
Over 3.5
73%1.16
Over 4.5
49%1.40
Under 3.5
27%3.80
Under 4.5
51%2.52

Match Events

4'C. SpinelliTripping
39'J. VarelaTripping
57'Lucas Piton INCuiabano out
57'Tche Tche INAdson out
59'H. Loboa INYony Gonzalez out
60'Robert Renan INA. Saldivia out
66'C. Spinelli INBrenner out
66'Ramon Rique INJair out
69'JairTripping
80'D. Moreno INB. Perlaza out
80'J. Montano IND. Catano out
85'Thiago MendesAssist: Paulo Henrique
86'Thiago MendesDelay of game
90'J. Cordoba INK. Klinger out
90+2'K. KlingerTripping

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Independiente Medellin
4-2-3-1Coach: Luis Perea
Avg rating6.88
Avg rating6.70
Léo Jardim6.71L. Jardim
Paulo Henrique7.996P. Henrique
Carlos Cuesta6.946C. Cuesta
Robert Renan7.330R. Renan
Lucas Piton6.66L. Piton
Thiago MendesC8.023T. Mendes
Tchê Tchê6.63T. Tchê
Andrés Gómez6.211A. Gómez
Ramon Rique7.083R. Rique
Nuno Moreira6.917N. Moreira
Claudio Spinelli6.377C. Spinelli
Eder Chaux7.525E. Chaux
Esneyder Mena7.526E. Mena
Kevin Mantilla6.94K. Mantilla
Joaquin Varela6.25J. Varela
Jhan Mena7.013J. Mena
Halam Loboa6.716H. Loboa
Didier MorenoC6.96D. Moreno
Juan Córdoba6.770J. Córdoba
Agustín Martegani6.621A. Martegani
John Edwin Montaño6.620J. Edwin Montaño
Jeison Medina6.29J. Medina

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

66Cuiabano57'for Lucas Piton6.5
28Adson57'for Tche Tche6.9
4Alan Saldivia60'for Robert Renan6.5
8Jair66'for Ramon Rique69'6.9
20Brenner66'for C. Spinelli6.9
13Daniel Fuzato
43Lucas Freitas
2Puma Rodríguez
10Johan Rojas
98JP
18Marino Hinestroza
7David

Independiente Medellin Substitutes

11Yony González59'for H. Loboa6.5
12Simón Romero
1Salvador Ichazo
19Alfonso Simarra
39Luis Escorcia
30Hayen Palacios
14Baldomero Perlaza80'for D. Moreno6.3
10Daniel Cataño80'for J. Montano6.2
34Keiner Klinger90'for J. Cordoba90+2'
31Diego Moreno

Match Stats

Vasco DA GamaIndependiente Medellin
60%Ball Possession40%
3Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards2
13Total Shots7
4Shots on Goal0
6Shots off Goal4
7Shots Inside Box3
6Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots3
16Fouls16
1Offsides0
0Goalkeeper Saves3
447Total Passes291
370Passes Accurate224
83%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
1722Elo Rating 1556
1.29Attack 1.11
0.71Defense 0.71
37%Hit Rate 14%
15.5Shots per Game 12.6
3.4Shots on Target 3.8
4.1Corners per Game 7.1
1.2Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+166 Elo

Game State Tendencies

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama0Wins · 0%
Draws1100%
Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin0Wins · 0%
4.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Recent Form

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
2W3D5L
26/07/2026
Vasco DA GamaMirassol
11
D
23/07/2026
Independiente MedellinVasco DA Gama
22
D
17/07/2026
VitoriaVasco DA Gama
10
L
31/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaAtletico-MG
01
L
28/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaBarracas Central
30
W
25/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaRB Bragantino
03
L
21/05/2026
OlimpiaVasco DA Gama
31
L
16/05/2026
InternacionalVasco DA Gama
41
L
14/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaPaysandu
22
D
11/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense
10
W
Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
4W3D3L
25/07/2026
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto
32
W
23/07/2026
Independiente MedellinVasco DA Gama
22
D
02/06/2026
Independiente MedellinCucuta
21
W
30/05/2026
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin
11
D
27/05/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin
10
L
21/05/2026
CuscoIndependiente Medellin
23
W
16/05/2026
OrsomarsoIndependiente Medellin
11
D
11/05/2026
Independiente MedellinFortaleza FC
10
W
08/05/2026
Independiente MedellinFlamengo
03
L
03/05/2026
Independiente MedellinÁguilas Doradas
12
L

Referee Profile

M. Ramirez17 matches

5.88Cards per match
5.35Yellow cards per match
0.53Red cards per match
22.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

M. Ramirez5.88
Other referees4.91

5.88 cards a match, 0.97 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.91).

Cards come from 17 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1OlimpiaOlimpia641110:6+413WWWLD
2Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama631210:6+410WLWWL
3A. ItalianoA. Italiano62137:9-27LWLDW
4Barracas CentralBarracas Central60332:8-63LLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1OlimpiaOlimpia610:613
2Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama610:610
3A. ItalianoA. Italiano67:97
4Barracas CentralBarracas Central62:83
Promotion

About the Vasco DA Gama vs Independiente Medellin forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Vasco DA Gama and Independiente Medellin have met only 1 time recently, with 4.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.