Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Vitoria
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Vasco DA Gama
Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador·Matheus Delgado Candançan, Brazil 17/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.37
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseMediumGap+5.3%
Value Analysis
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.37
SignalSTRONGModel50%SurpriseMediumGap+12.6%
Vitoria Rest
40 days
Vasco DA Gama Rest
46 days

Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama: result, form and history

Vitoria beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 in the Serie A on 16 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Vitoria had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Vasco DA Gama.

Vasco DA Gama have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%2.39
X
24%3.30
2
22%2.96
Double Chance
1X
78%1.37
X2
46%1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.75
No
40%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.77 + 0.98 = 2.75
Over 1.5
78%1.31
Over 2.5
60%2.00
Over 3.5
34%3.52
Under 1.5
22%3.25
Under 2.5
40%1.80
Under 3.5
66%1.28
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 4 = 10.4
Over 8.5
61%1.41
Over 9.5
50%1.72
Over 10.5
36%2.16
Under 8.5
39%2.60
Under 9.5
50%1.99
Under 10.5
64%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.6 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%1.47
Over 4.5
55%1.95
Under 3.5
28%2.38
Under 4.5
45%1.77

Match Events

39'Zé Vitor INTomás Pochettino out
59'Johan Rojas INAndrés Gómez out
59'Claudio Spinelli INBrenner out
63'Renê Sousa INRenato Kayzer out
69'Renato KayzerAssist: Diego Tarzia
73'Adson INMarino Hinestroza out
77'Erick INMarinho out
78'Jamerson INEmanuel Brítez out
78'Diego Tarzia INFabrício Santos out
78'Nuno Moreira INDavid out
78'Thiago Mendes INTchê Tchê out

Lineups

Vitoria
4-1-4-1Coach: Ventura Jair
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Coach: Gaucho Renato
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.63
Lucas Arcanjo7.01L. Arcanjo
Jamerson7.583Jamerson
Cacá7.325Cacá
Luan Cândido7.236L. Cândido
Ramon7.213Ramon
Gabriel BaralhasC6.944G. Baralhas
Erick6.933Erick
Zé Vitor6.388Z. Vitor
Emmanuel Martínez7.26E. Martínez
Diego Tarzia6.712D. Tarzia
Renê Sousa6.291R. Sousa
Léo Jardim7.51L. Jardim
Puma Rodríguez7.32P. Rodríguez
Carlos Cuesta6.946C. Cuesta
Robert Renan6.930R. Renan
Cuiabano6.566Cuiabano
Cauan Barros6.988C. Barros
Thiago MendesC6.623T. Mendes
Adson6.228Adson
Johan Rojas6.310J. Rojas
Nuno Moreira6.217N. Moreira
Claudio Spinelli6.077C. Spinelli

Vitoria Substitutes

8Tomás Pochettino39'for Zé Vitor6.6
79Renato Kayzer63'for Renê Sousa69'7.3
7Marinho77'for Erick6.3
2Emanuel Brítez78'for Jamerson6.9
23Fabrício Santos78'for Diego Tarzia6.7
71Yuri Sena
98Mateusinho
26Edenilson
15Walace
11Osvaldo
10Matheuzinho
41Wendell dos Santos Sacramento

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

11Andrés Gómez59'for Johan Rojas6.9
20Brenner59'for Claudio Spinelli6.7
18Marino Hinestroza73'for Adson6.3
3Tchê Tchê78'for Thiago Mendes6.6
7David78'for Nuno Moreira6.3
13Daniel Fuzato
96Paulo Henrique
6Lucas Piton
43Lucas Freitas
8Jair
98JP
83Ramon Rique

Match Stats

VitoriaVasco DA Gama
50%Ball Possession50%
3Corner Kicks2
14Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots4
12Fouls15
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
385Total Passes394
298Passes Accurate326
77%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

VitoriaVitoria
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
1604Elo Rating 1742
1.15Attack 1.64
1.71Defense 0.97
14%Hit Rate 44%
10.2Shots per Game 12.0
3.6Shots on Target 3.0
3.0Corners per Game 3.1
1.9Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

VitoriaVitoria
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

VitoriaVitoria2Wins · 33%
Draws00%
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama4Wins · 67%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
67%3+ goals4 of 6

Previous meetings

Serie A05/10/2025
Vasco DA GamaVitoria
43
Serie A10/05/2025
VitoriaVasco DA Gama
21
Serie A01/09/2024
VitoriaVasco DA Gama
01
Serie A12/05/2024
Vasco DA GamaVitoria
21
Serie B11/11/2021
Vasco DA GamaVitoria
03
Serie B08/08/2021
VitoriaVasco DA Gama
01

Recent Form

VitoriaVitoria
7W1D2L
06/06/2026
VitoriaFortaleza EC
21
W
03/06/2026
Fortaleza ECVitoria
12
W
31/05/2026
SantosVitoria
31
L
28/05/2026
ABCVitoria
34
W
23/05/2026
VitoriaInternacional
20
W
21/05/2026
VitoriaABC
62
W
17/05/2026
RB BragantinoVitoria
20
L
15/05/2026
VitoriaFlamengo
20
W
09/05/2026
FluminenseVitoria
22
D
02/05/2026
VitoriaCoritiba
41
W
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
4W2D4L
31/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaAtletico-MG
01
L
28/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaBarracas Central
30
W
25/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaRB Bragantino
03
L
21/05/2026
OlimpiaVasco DA Gama
31
L
16/05/2026
InternacionalVasco DA Gama
41
L
14/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaPaysandu
22
D
11/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense
10
W
07/05/2026
A. ItalianoVasco DA Gama
12
W
03/05/2026
FlamengoVasco DA Gama
22
D
01/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaOlimpia
30
W

Referee Profile

Matheus Delgado Candançan153 matches

4.59Cards per match
4.29Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Matheus Delgado Candançan4.59
Other referees5.08

4.59 cards a match, 0.49 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.08).

Cards come from 140 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

About the Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Vitoria and Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A table

Vasco DA Gama and Vitoria are close in the Serie A table, 13th and 15th, with 3 points between them. League goal record so far: Vitoria 35-51, Vasco DA Gama 43-50. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.