Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente Prediction

Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina Argentina · Clausura - 3
Velez Sarsfield
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Independiente
Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires·Leandro Rey Hilfer, Argentina 04/08/2026
Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
1-0
Finished
IndependienteIndependiente

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+0.2%
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.57
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Velez Sarsfield Rest
4 days
Independiente Rest
3 days

Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente: the result in context

Velez Sarsfield beat Independiente 1-0 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 3 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Velez Sarsfield tend to win more corners, 6.5 a game to 4.3 for Independiente.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.55
X
30%2.90
2
26%3.05
Double Chance
1X
74%1.36
X2
57%1.49
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.02
No
47%1.73
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.16 + 1.01 = 2.17
Over 1.5
67%1.49
Over 2.5
39%2.55
Over 3.5
20%5.00
Under 1.5
33%2.56
Under 2.5
61%1.50
Under 3.5
80%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4 = 10.1
Over 8.5
60%1.79
Over 9.5
49%2.27
Over 10.5
37%3.00
Under 8.5
40%1.95
Under 9.5
51%1.55
Under 10.5
63%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.5 = 4.6
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
50%1.53
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
50%2.25

Match Events

27'L. Godoy INS. Arias out
42'Dilan GodoyFoul
45+3'Maximiliano GutiérrezFoul
46'L. Magallan INE. Mammana out
46'M. Abaldo INF. Valdez out
53'Santiago MontielFoul
57'M. Lanzini INS. Escobar out
57'D. Godoy INT. Aguirre out
70'T. Aguirre
72'Matías PellegriniFoul
76'M. Perez Curci INM. Meza out
76'M. Gutierrez INL. Millan out
85'Simon EscobarFoul
86'M. Pellegrini INL. Feler out
88'L. Robertone INC. Baeza out

Lineups

Velez Sarsfield
4-2-3-1Coach: Guilermo Barros Schelotto
Independiente
4-2-3-1Coach: Gustavo Quinteros
Avg rating7.00
Avg rating6.88
T. Marchiori6.91T. Marchiori
J. Garcia7.64J. Garcia
T. Silvero7.032T. Silvero
L. Magallan6.916L. Magallan
E. GomezC7.53E. Gomez
R. Aliendro7.529R. Aliendro
L. Robertone7.28L. Robertone
M. Pellegrini6.911M. Pellegrini
D. Valdes7.510D. Valdes
M. Lanzini6.722M. Lanzini
D. Godoy6.315D. Godoy
R. Rey7.633R. Rey
L. Godoy6.729L. Godoy
J. Fedorco7.613J. Fedorco
K. Lomonaco7.226K. Lomonaco
F. Zabala7.222F. Zabala
M. Perez Curci6.916M. Perez Curci
I. MarconeC7.023I. Marcone
M. Gutierrez6.228M. Gutierrez
S. Montiel6.97S. Montiel
M. Abaldo6.719M. Abaldo
G. Avalos6.99G. Avalos

Velez Sarsfield Substitutes

33F. Villalba
34A. Busso
5C. Baeza88'for L. Robertone
2E. Mammana46'for L. Magallan6.6
17A. Veron
19L. Cristaldo
18S. Escobar57'for M. Lanzini85'6.6
47A. Pereyra
48L. Feler86'for M. Pellegrini6.5
39T. Aguirre57'for D. Godoy70'7.3
37J. Policella
30L. Piola

Independiente Substitutes

1J. Blazquez
8M. Meza76'for M. Perez Curci6.7
3J. De Irastorza
20F. Cruz
18F. Valdez46'for M. Abaldo6.3
4S. Arias27'for L. Godoy6.6
10L. Cabral
32D. Martinez
14L. Millan76'for M. Gutierrez6.7
21F. Closter
34F. Tempone
35J. Arrayago

Match Stats

Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
54%Ball Possession46%
4Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots11
4Shots on Goal1
4Shots off Goal8
7Shots Inside Box5
5Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots2
17Fouls13
2Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves2
438Total Passes374
337Passes Accurate281
77%Pass Accuracy75%

Team Comparison

Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
IndependienteIndependiente
1732Elo Rating 1648
2.16Attack 0.61
1.85Defense 1.74
42%Hit Rate 0%
16.6Shots per Game 14.1
6.2Shots on Target 4.0
6.5Corners per Game 4.3
2.3Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
IndependienteIndependiente
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield2Wins · 20%
Draws660%
IndependienteIndependiente2Wins · 20%
2.1Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga Profesional Argentina31/01/2026
IndependienteVelez Sarsfield
11
Liga Profesional Argentina17/08/2025
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
21
Liga Profesional Argentina13/02/2025
IndependienteVelez Sarsfield
30
Copa Argentina27/09/2024
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
10
Liga Profesional Argentina27/05/2024
IndependienteVelez Sarsfield
11
Liga Profesional Argentina12/02/2023
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
00
Copa Argentina16/09/2022
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
02
Liga Profesional Argentina28/08/2022
IndependienteVelez Sarsfield
11
Liga Profesional Argentina20/02/2022
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
00
Liga Profesional Argentina03/10/2021
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
33

Recent Form

Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
5W3D2L
31/07/2026
Talleres CordobaVelez Sarsfield
13
W25/07/2026
Velez SarsfieldInstituto Cordoba
10
W
11/05/2026
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia L.P.
01
L
05/05/2026
Velez SarsfieldNewells Old Boys
11
D
01/05/2026
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro
20
W
27/04/2026
Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
22
D
21/04/2026
San LorenzoVelez Sarsfield
00
D
14/04/2026
Velez SarsfieldCentral Cordoba de Santiago
10
W
07/04/2026
Velez SarsfieldDeportivo Armenio
41
W
03/04/2026
Gimnasia M.Velez Sarsfield
32
L
IndependienteIndependiente
7W1D2L
31/07/2026
IndependienteNewells Old Boys
10
W26/07/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente
02
W
23/05/2026
Union Santa FeIndependiente
02
W
10/05/2026
Rosario CentralIndependiente
31
L
02/05/2026
San LorenzoIndependiente
12
W
24/04/2026
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente
20
L
19/04/2026
IndependienteDefensa Y Justicia
31
W
12/04/2026
Boca JuniorsIndependiente
11
D
04/04/2026
IndependienteRacing Club
10
W
27/03/2026
IndependienteAtenas
42
W

Referee Profile

Leandro Rey Hilfer213 matches

5.07Cards per match
4.87Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
25.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Leandro Rey Hilfer5.07
Other referees5.15

5.07 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.15).

Cards come from 151 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Apertura - Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1694319:7+1231DDLLD
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1686222:9+1330WWWWD
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1677218:12+628LDWWL
4Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1675417:13+426DWLLD
5IndependienteIndependiente1666424:20+424WDLDD
6LanusLanus1666418:15+324DDDWW
7San LorenzoSan Lorenzo1657414:14022LDDWW
8Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1656524:20+421WDWDL
9Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1663717:17021DDWWD
10Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1647518:21-319LDWLW
11Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1654714:22-819DDLLW
12PlatensePlatense1637610:15-516WWWLD
13Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1644811:21-1016DLLLD
14Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1636715:27-1215DDDWL
15Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra161875:12-711LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1619:731
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1622:930
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1618:1228
4Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1617:1326
5IndependienteIndependiente1624:2024
6LanusLanus1618:1524
7San LorenzoSan Lorenzo1614:1422
8Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1624:2021
9Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1617:1721
10Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1618:2119
11Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1614:2219
12PlatensePlatense1610:1516
13Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1611:2116
14Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1615:2715
15Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra165:1211

Clausura - Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba16104226:15+1134DDWWD
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1696124:14+1033WWWWD
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1677225:17+828LDWWL
4Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1684421:15+628LDWLW
5LanusLanus1675419:12+726DDDWW
6Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1658316:13+323DDDWL
7IndependienteIndependiente1665515:16-123WDLDD
8Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1664618:17+122DDLLW
9Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1663724:24021WDWDL
10PlatensePlatense1655618:20-220WWWLD
11San LorenzoSan Lorenzo165479:16-719LDDWW
12Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1644821:22-116DDLLD
13Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1634917:23-613DWLLD
14Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra1626811:19-812LLLDL
15Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1625912:26-1411DLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1626:1534
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1624:1433
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1625:1728
4Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1621:1528
5LanusLanus1619:1226
6Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1616:1323
7IndependienteIndependiente1615:1623
8Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1618:1722
9Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1624:2421
10PlatensePlatense1618:2020
11San LorenzoSan Lorenzo169:1619
12Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1621:2216
13Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1617:2313
14Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra1611:1912
15Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1612:2611

Liga Profesional Argentina

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors321712346:23+2363WWWWD
2Rosario CentralRosario Central32188646:28+1862WWWWW
3Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS32179637:27+1060LWWWD
4Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia32169750:39+1157DWLDL
5Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.32176944:39+557WWWWD
6Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield321414443:29+1456LDWWL
7River PlateRiver Plate321741143:26+1755WLWWD
8Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba32167943:32+1155DDWWD
9LanusLanus321311837:27+1050DDDWW
10Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba321310934:28+649LDLLW
11Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.321381140:29+1147DDLLD
12Barracas CentralBarracas Central321211932:28+447WDWDW
13IndependienteIndependiente321211939:36+347WDLDD
14Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia321211939:36+347LDWLW
15HuracanHuracan3211111031:29+244WLLLL
16Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe321191248:44+442WDWDL
17Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.321181332:39-741DDLLW
18San LorenzoSan Lorenzo3210111123:30-741LDDWW
19Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin321241636:44-840LLLDD
20TigreTigre329121134:31+339WWLDL
21Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba321091334:36-239DWLLD
22Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys328141031:40-938DDDWL
23Racing ClubRacing Club32991433:39-636LWLDL
24PlatensePlatense328121228:35-736WWWLD
25BanfieldBanfield32891535:44-933DLDLW
26Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman327111431:37-632DLWLD
27Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago32691723:47-2427DLLLD
28Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra323141516:31-1523LLLDL
29AldosiviAldosivi323101922:45-2319LLWLL
30Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto32352415:47-3214LLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors3246:2363
2Rosario CentralRosario Central3246:2862
3Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS3237:2760
4Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia3250:3957
5Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.3244:3957
6Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield3243:2956
7River PlateRiver Plate3243:2655
8Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba3243:3255
9LanusLanus3237:2750
10Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba3234:2849
11Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.3240:2947
12Barracas CentralBarracas Central3232:2847
13IndependienteIndependiente3239:3647
14Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia3239:3647
15HuracanHuracan3231:2944
16Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe3248:4442
17Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.3232:3941
18San LorenzoSan Lorenzo3223:3041
19Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin3236:4440
20TigreTigre3234:3139
21Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba3234:3639
22Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys3231:4038
23Racing ClubRacing Club3233:3936
24PlatensePlatense3228:3536
25BanfieldBanfield3235:4433
26Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman3231:3732
27Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago3223:4727
28Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra3216:3123
29AldosiviAldosivi3222:4519
30Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto3215:4714
Relegation

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About the Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente forecast

The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Velez Sarsfield and Independiente in the Liga Profesional Argentina table

Velez Sarsfield and Independiente are close in the Liga Profesional Argentina table, 3rd and 5th, with 4 points between them. League goal record so far: Velez Sarsfield 18-12, Independiente 24-20. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.