West Ham vs Derby Prediction

West Ham
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Derby
London Stadium, London· Oliver Langford, England 05/09/2026
West HamWest Ham
3-0
Finished
DerbyDerby

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.39
SignalGOODModel76%RiskMediumGap-0.6%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.39
SignalHIGHModel63%RiskMediumGap+8.5%
West Ham Rest
3 days
Derby Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
76%1.39
X
16%4.75
2
8%7.45
Double Chance
1X
92%1.07
X2
24%2.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.87
No
49%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.93 + 0.81 = 2.74
Over 1.5
75%1.22
Over 2.5
53%1.68
Over 3.5
31%2.75
Under 1.5
25%4.10
Under 2.5
47%2.15
Under 3.5
69%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 3.7 = 10.1
Over 8.5
63%1.29
Over 9.5
53%1.56
Over 10.5
43%1.91
Under 8.5
37%3.05
Under 9.5
47%2.27
Under 10.5
57%1.80
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 2.3 = 3.6
Over 3.5
50%1.91
Over 4.5
30%2.98
Under 3.5
50%1.80
Under 4.5
70%1.35

Match Events

6'J. PiroeAssist: T. Castellanos
21'Alex MowattFoul
22'R. Brewster IND. Ozoh out
62'O. Fraulo INB. Clark out
62'H. Meister INL. Salvesen out
64'T. Castellanos INL. Orford out
71'R. Nyambe INM. Johnston out
71'R. Hedges INM. Fuseini out
77'Mohammed FuseiniFoul
77'O. Scarles INA. Boiro out
77'M. Solomon INE. Austbo out
86'A. Mowatt INC. Blackett-Taylor out
87'E. Austbo
90+1'D. Mukasa INMorato out
90+1'J. Bowen INM. Kante out
90'M. KanteAssist: E. Austbo

Lineups

West Ham
4-4-2Coach: Nuno Espirito Santo
Derby
4-2-3-1Coach: John Eustace
M. Hermansen1M. HermansenM. Hermansen
J. Veltman34J. VeltmanJ. Veltman
K. Mavropanos15K. MavropanosK. Mavropanos
M. Kilman3M. KilmanM. Kilman
O. Scarles30O. ScarlesO. Scarles
J. Bowen20J. BowenJ. Bowen
D. Mukasa14D. MukasaD. Mukasa
A. Engels7A. EngelsA. Engels
M. Solomon10M. SolomonM. Solomon
J. Piroe9J. PiroeJ. Piroe
T. Castellanos11T. CastellanosT. Castellanos
J. Widell Zetterstrom1J. Widell ZetterstromJ. Widell Zetterstrom
R. Nyambe24R. NyambeR. Nyambe
S. Langas6S. LangasS. Langas
D. Sanderson28D. SandersonD. Sanderson
C. Taylor18C. TaylorC. Taylor
A. Mowatt20A. MowattA. Mowatt
O. Fraulo29O. FrauloO. Fraulo
R. Hedges26R. HedgesR. Hedges
S. Szmodics11S. SzmodicsS. Szmodics
R. Brewster10R. BrewsterR. Brewster
H. Meister19H. MeisterH. Meister

West Ham Substitutes

49F. HerrickG
2K. Walker-PetersD
5MoratoD
18A. BoiroD
58A. GolambeckisD
61L. OrfordM
21K. LamadridM
17M. KanteM
35E. AustboF

Derby Substitutes

31J. VickersG
42R. OfforD
22M. JohnstonD
23J. WardM
8B. ClarkM
4D. OzohM
33C. Blackett-TaylorF
16M. FuseiniF
15L. SalvesenF

Match Stats

West HamDerby
52%Ball Possession48%
5Corner Kicks6
0Yellow Cards2
20Total Shots4
7Shots on Goal0
10Shots off Goal3
17Shots Inside Box2
3Shots Outside Box2
3Blocked Shots1
6Fouls16
1Offsides0
0Goalkeeper Saves4
458Total Passes421
388Passes Accurate340
85%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

West HamWest Ham
DerbyDerby
1810Elo Rating 1583
3.69Attack 0.60
2.07Defense 1.22
86%Hit Rate 17%
16.0Shots per Game 11.0
6.6Shots on Target 2.1
5.1Corners per Game 8.5
1.0Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+227 Elo
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

West HamWest Ham
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 1.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
DerbyDerby
  • No tendency data available

Head to Head

Based on 1 historical meeting

West Ham 100%Draw 0%0% Derby
2Avg Goals
0%BTTS Rate
0%Over 2.5

Recent Form

DerbyDerby
1W1D3L
01/09/2026
PortsmouthDerby
02
W
29/08/2026
DerbySwansea
03
L
22/08/2026
DerbyCardiff
22
D
15/08/2026
CharltonDerby
21
L
08/08/2026
DerbyLincoln
12
L

Referee Profile

Oliver Langford, England · 26 matches analysed

3.6Avg Yellows
3.8Avg Cards
20.8Avg Fouls
Stricter than 10% of referees analysed

League Table

Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1West HamWest Ham742120:9+1114WWWWD
2SwanseaSwansea742111:5+614WLDWW
3MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough742114:10+414DWWDW
4West BromWest Brom742110:7+314DWWDL
5QPRQPR73318:5+312DDLWW
6CharltonCharlton73316:7-112DDLDW
7WolvesWolves632114:10+411WDLWW
8LincolnLincoln73226:6011WWDDW
9SouthamptonSouthampton742118:8+1010WWDDW
10BirminghamBirmingham724110:9+110WLDDW
11MillwallMillwall731313:13010DLWLL
12Stoke CityStoke City731311:11010WDWWL
13Bristol CityBristol City731310:12-210LLWWW
14NorwichNorwich730413:1309LWWLW
15Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd72328:9-19LWLWD
16BlackburnBlackburn722310:1008WLLDL
17WatfordWatford72237:9-28LWLLD
18PortsmouthPortsmouth62137:8-17DWLLW
19WrexhamWrexham71427:11-47LDDWL
20BoltonBolton72147:12-57WLLLL
21CardiffCardiff70437:11-44LDLLD
22DerbyDerby71156:13-74LLLWL
23PrestonPreston71066:13-73LLWLL
24BurnleyBurnley70348:16-83LDLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1West HamWest Ham720:914
2SwanseaSwansea711:514
3MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough714:1014
4West BromWest Brom710:714
5QPRQPR78:512
6CharltonCharlton76:712
7WolvesWolves614:1011
8LincolnLincoln76:611
9SouthamptonSouthampton718:810
10BirminghamBirmingham710:910
11MillwallMillwall713:1310
12Stoke CityStoke City711:1110
13Bristol CityBristol City710:1210
14NorwichNorwich713:139
15Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd78:99
16BlackburnBlackburn710:108
17WatfordWatford77:98
18PortsmouthPortsmouth67:87
19WrexhamWrexham77:117
20BoltonBolton77:127
21CardiffCardiff77:114
22DerbyDerby76:134
23PrestonPreston76:133
24BurnleyBurnley78:163
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West Ham vs Derby Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Championship fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Championship

ScorePredicts covers England football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

West Ham have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. West Ham and Derby have met 1 times recently, averaging 2 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.