Derby vs Lincoln Prediction

Derby
1-2
Finished
HT 1-2
Lincoln
Pride Park Stadium, Derby· Josh Smith, England 08/08/2026
DerbyDerby
1-2
Finished
LincolnLincoln

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSOLIDModel51%RiskHighGap-1.0%
Derby Rest
3 days
Lincoln Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
24%1.97
X
22%3.67
2
54%3.40
Double Chance
1X
46%1.30
X2
77%1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%1.60
No
54%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.87 + 1.92 = 3.79
Over 1.5
82%1.20
Over 2.5
52%1.69
Over 3.5
32%2.64
Under 1.5
18%4.00
Under 2.5
48%2.10
Under 3.5
68%1.43
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

3'Ben HouseAssist: Varfolomieiev Ivan
23'Dom JefferiesAssist: Freddie Draper
32'Adam ReachFoul
35'Lewis TravisFoul
45+1'Sammie Szmodics
46'Matt Clarke INDion Sanderson out
48'Ben HouseFoul
63'Charlie Taylor INCraig Forsyth out
63'Corey Blackett-Taylor INMax Johnston out
63'Oscar Fraulo INFilip Bilbija out
67'Dom Jefferies INRyley Towler out
79'Ben House INMason Melia out
79'Robert Street INReeco Hackett-Fairchild out
79'Freddie Draper INIsaac Olaofe out
80'Sammie Szmodics INLars-Jørgen Salvesen out
88'Adam Reach INCallum Elder out

Lineups

Derby
Coach: John Eustace
Lincoln
4-4-2

Derby Starting XI

1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
23Joe WardD
6Sondre LangåsD
5Matt ClarkeD
18Charlie TaylorD
29Oscar FrauloM
27Lewis TravisM
11Sammie SzmodicsM
8Bobby ClarkM
33Corey Blackett-TaylorM
9Carlton MorrisF

Lincoln Starting XI

1George WickensG
2Tendayi DarikwaD
22Thomas HamerD
25Deji ElereweD
3Adam ReachD
16Dom JefferiesM
14Conor McGrandlesM
24Varfolomieiev IvanM
18Ben HouseM
17Robert StreetF
34Freddie DraperF

Derby Substitutes

28Dion SandersonD
3Craig ForsythD
22Max JohnstonD
13Filip BilbijaM
15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenF
31Josh VickersG
40Cruz AllenM
41Charlie SmithM
37Owen EamesM

Lincoln Substitutes

6Ryley TowlerD
7Reeco Hackett-FairchildM
19Isaac OlaofeF
10Mason MeliaF
20Callum ElderD
46Joe GauciG
21James PardingtonG
4Andrei CoubișD
23Joshua HonohanD

Match Stats

DerbyLincoln
71%Ball Possession29%
3Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots14
4Shots on Goal4
1Shots off Goal6
3Shots Inside Box10
5Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots4
12Fouls12
1Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves2
540Total Passes218
461Passes Accurate145
85%Pass Accuracy67%

Team Comparison

DerbyDerby
LincolnLincoln
1583Elo Rating 1734
0.60Attack 0.61
1.22Defense 1.89
17%Hit Rate 41%
11.0Shots per Game 8.9
2.1Shots on Target 2.7
8.5Corners per Game 2.2
1.3Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy3.79 goals
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

DerbyDerby
  • No tendency data available
LincolnLincoln
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 4 historical meetings

Derby 27%Draw 54%19% Lincoln
1.91Avg Goals
49%BTTS Rate
27%Over 2.5

Recent Form

DerbyDerby
1W1D3L
04/08/2026
RotherhamDerby
11
D
01/08/2026
Burton AlbionDerby
10
L
31/07/2026
Mansfield TownDerby
13
W
28/07/2026
DerbyValencia
12
L
24/07/2026
SC FreiburgDerby
31
L
LincolnLincoln
2W0D3L
01/08/2026
BarnsleyLincoln
30
L
01/08/2026
DoncasterLincoln
01
W
28/07/2026
GrimsbyLincoln
51
L
17/07/2026
LincolnLeyton Orient
02
L
11/07/2026
Boston UnitedLincoln
01
W

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Bournemouth
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Sunderland
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

Derby vs Lincoln Prediction

As a knockout-stage League Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

ScorePredicts covers League Cup across every knockout round. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

Derby and Lincoln have met 4 times recently, averaging 1.91 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.