Southampton vs West Ham Prediction

Southampton
1-4
Finished
HT 1-1
West Ham
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton·Ruebyn Ricardo, England 25/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel43%SurpriseHighGap+0.1%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.48
SignalHIGHModel33%SurpriseHighGap+8.7%
Southampton Rest
3 days
West Ham Rest
3 days

Southampton vs West Ham: the result in context

West Ham beat Southampton 4-1 in the League Cup on 25 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Southampton had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for West Ham.

Their history points to a close game: 9 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game. Referee Ruebyn Ricardo averages 4.93 cards a game, 1.12 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
31%2.45
X
26%3.55
2
43%2.65
Double Chance
1X
56%1.44
X2
69%1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.53
No
49%2.38
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.31 = 2.58
Over 1.5
83%1.20
Over 2.5
48%1.66
Over 3.5
28%2.56
Under 1.5
17%4.32
Under 2.5
52%2.21
Under 3.5
72%1.48
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

10'L. Scienza
26'C. BraggFoul
34'L. ScienzaFoul
41'J. AjalaAssist: L. Orford
53'J. Ajala
59'J. Ajala INM. Solomon out
59'J. Piroe INT. Castellanos out
59'K. Lamadrid INJ. Bowen out
59'M. Kante INA. Engels out
60'T. Fellows INK. Matsuki out
60'L. Scienza INS. Edozie out
60'C. Bragg INF. Downes out
66'R. Akachukwu INF. Azaz out
75'T. CastellanosAssist: J. Veltman
80'L. Dobbin INC. Larin out
84'J. BowenAssist: L. Orford
87'D. Mukasa INK. Casey out

Lineups

Southampton
4-3-3Coach: Tonda Eckert
West Ham
4-4-1-1Coach: Nuno Espirito Santo
Avg rating6.52
Avg rating7.04
Daniel Peretz5.91D. Peretz
James Bree5.514J. Bree
Nathan Wood6.915N. Wood
Jack StephensC6.35J. Stephens
Welington6.334Welington
Romeo Akachukwu6.729R. Akachukwu
Cameron Bragg6.726C. Bragg
Leo Scienza7.37L. Scienza
Tom Fellows7.018T. Fellows
Divin Mubama6.728D. Mubama
Lewis Dobbin6.311L. Dobbin
Finlay Herrick6.249F. Herrick
Joël Veltman7.734J. Veltman
Airidas Golambeckis6.358A. Golambeckis
Max KilmanC7.23M. Kilman
Ezra Mayers6.563E. Mayers
Keiber Lamadrid6.721K. Lamadrid
Lewis Orford7.761L. Orford
Mohamadou Kanté6.517M. Kanté
Joshua Ajala8.566J. Ajala
Divine Mukasa7.014D. Mukasa
Joël Piroe6.79J. Piroe

Southampton Substitutes

23Samuel Edozie60'for L. Scienza6.7
27Kuryu Matsuki60'for T. Fellows6.3
4Flynn Downes60'for C. Bragg6.7
10Finn Azaz66'for R. Akachukwu6.5
9Cyle Larin80'for L. Dobbin6.5
25George Long
17Joshua Quarshie
3Ryan Manning
19Cameron Archer

West Ham Substitutes

7Arne Engels59'for M. Kante6.9
20Jarrod Bowen59'for K. Lamadrid84'7.9
11Valentín Castellanos59'for J. Piroe75'7.2
10Manor Solomon59'for J. Ajala6.7
42Kaelan Casey87'for D. Mukasa6.9
1Mads Hermansen
30Oliver Scarles
2Kyle Walker-Peters
27Soungoutou Magassa

Match Stats

SouthamptonWest Ham
58%Ball Possession42%
2Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards0
12Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal8
4Shots off Goal2
6Shots Inside Box14
6Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots8
7Fouls8
4Goalkeeper Saves3
600Total Passes439
532Passes Accurate386
89%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

SouthamptonSouthampton
West HamWest Ham
1794Elo Rating 1802
1.31Attack 2.38
2.18Defense 1.74
63%Hit Rate 42%
14.1Shots per Game 19.9
4.6Shots on Target 7.9
4.1Corners per Game 8.4
2.6Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend44% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

SouthamptonSouthampton
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
West HamWest Ham
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

SouthamptonSouthampton2Wins · 22%
Draws445%
West HamWest Ham3Wins · 33%
2.0Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
33%3+ goals3 of 9

Previous meetings

Premier League19/04/2025
West HamSouthampton
11
Premier League26/12/2024
SouthamptonWest Ham
01
Premier League02/04/2023
West HamSouthampton
10
Premier League16/10/2022
SouthamptonWest Ham
11
FA Cup02/03/2022
SouthamptonWest Ham
31
Premier League26/12/2021
West HamSouthampton
23
Premier League11/09/2021
SouthamptonWest Ham
00
Premier League23/05/2021
West HamSouthampton
30
Premier League29/12/2020
SouthamptonWest Ham
00

Recent Form

SouthamptonSouthampton
7W2D1L
22/08/2026
SouthamptonStoke City
31
W
16/08/2026
WatfordSouthampton
21
L
08/08/2026
ColchesterSouthampton
02
W
01/08/2026
Preußen MünsterSouthampton
12
W
24/07/2026
Eintracht BraunschweigSouthampton
01
W
18/07/2026
EastleighSouthampton
13
W
12/05/2026
SouthamptonMiddlesbrough
2111
W
09/05/2026
MiddlesbroughSouthampton
00
D
02/05/2026
PrestonSouthampton
13
W
28/04/2026
SouthamptonIpswich
22
D
West HamWest Ham
3W4D3L
22/08/2026
West HamCharlton
12
L
16/08/2026
BurnleyWest Ham
22
D
08/08/2026
West HamPortsmouth
31
W
01/08/2026
1. FC MagdeburgWest Ham
11
D
26/07/2026
RangersWest Ham
00
D
22/07/2026
StevenageWest Ham
05
W
18/07/2026
SouthendWest Ham
11
D
24/05/2026
West HamLeeds
30
W
17/05/2026
NewcastleWest Ham
31
L
10/05/2026
West HamArsenal
01
L

Referee Profile

Ruebyn Ricardo30 matches

4.93Cards per match
4.73Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
21.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ruebyn Ricardo4.93
Other referees3.81

4.93 cards a match, 1.12 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.81).

Cards come from 30 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Southampton vs West Ham forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.