York vs Gillingham Prediction

York
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Gillingham
York`s LNER Community Stadium, York 26/09/2026
YorkYork
3-0
Finished
GillinghamGillingham

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.19
SignalHIGHModel59%SurpriseMediumGap-7.4%
York Rest
3 days
Gillingham Rest
3 days

York vs Gillingham: the result in context

York beat Gillingham 3-0 in the League Two on 26 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Gillingham had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for York.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.75
X
25%3.90
2
22%4.15
Double Chance
1X
78%1.19
X2
47%2.04
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.60
No
43%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.67 + 1.03 = 2.70
Over 1.5
79%1.17
Over 2.5
57%1.60
Over 3.5
36%2.57
Under 1.5
21%4.50
Under 2.5
43%2.22
Under 3.5
64%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4.1 = 10.2
Over 8.5
65%1.25
Over 9.5
53%1.44
Over 10.5
42%1.71
Under 8.5
35%3.53
Under 9.5
47%2.54
Under 10.5
58%2.00
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.8 = 3.4
Over 3.5
44%-
Over 4.5
25%-
Under 3.5
56%-
Under 4.5
75%-

Match Events

2'Joey GreyAssist: Ollie Pearce
19'W. Goodwin INZane Albarus out
31'Eli King INGarath McCleary out
37'Omar BecklesDissent
45+1'Robbie McKenzieFoul
45+3'Joey GreyFoul
50'Garath McClearyFoul
57'Alex Newby INjovan malcolm out
60'Zane AlbarusFoul
65'Andy Smith INJack Daley out
65'Ronan Chapman Hale INBradley Dack out
65'Logan Dobbs INS. Kendall out
70'Zane Albarus
75'jovan malcolmAssist: Harry Boyes
79'Ollie PearceAssist: Harry Boyes
81'Joseph Rabole Felix INArthur Read out
81'Ollie Banks INJeff King out
81'Joey Grey INFrankie Maguire out

Lineups

York
3-4-2-1Coach: S. Lindsey
Gillingham
3-4-3Coach: G. Ainsworth
Avg rating7.34
Avg rating5.80
Alfie Shane McNally6.51A. Shane McNally
R. Fallowfield6.92R. Fallowfield
Z. Johnson7.75Z. Johnson
M. Kitching7.63M. Kitching
J. Felix6.623J. Felix
O. Banks7.028O. Banks
A. Hunt7.28A. Hunt
H. Boyes8.612H. Boyes
J. Grey8.07J. Grey
A. Newby6.630A. Newby
O. Pearce8.610O. Pearce
O. Wright5.91O. Wright
A. Smith6.05A. Smith
O. Beckles5.719O. Beckles
L. Dobbs5.626L. Dobbs
N. Freeman5.922N. Freeman
J. Brophy6.016J. Brophy
R. McKenzie5.614R. McKenzie
E. King5.834E. King
Ronan Hale6.110R. Hale
W. Goodwin6.29W. Goodwin
H. Waldock5.624H. Waldock

York Substitutes

32J. Hunt
15J. King81'for Ollie Banks7.0
11F. Maguire81'for Joey Grey6.8
18J. Malcolm57'for Alex Newby75'7.7
6A. Palmer
16A. Read81'for Joseph Rabole Felix7.2
31G. Sykes-Kenworthy

Gillingham Substitutes

17C. Antwi
23B. Dack65'for Ronan Chapman Hale5.9
40R. Luthra
12G. McCleary31'for Eli King50'5.4
18S. Kendall65'for Logan Dobbs5.7
20J. Daley65'for Andy Smith6.3
15Z. Albarus19'for W. Goodwin60'70'5.2

Match Stats

YorkGillingham
65%Ball Possession35%
4Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
17Total Shots6
6Shots on Goal0
7Shots off Goal4
9Shots Inside Box2
8Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots2
8Fouls17
0Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves3
573Total Passes296
477Passes Accurate220
17Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

YorkYork
GillinghamGillingham
1621Elo Rating 1470
1.55Attack 1.92
2.41Defense 0.47
41%Hit Rate 31%
13.9Shots per Game 9.4
4.1Shots on Target 3.3
4.0Corners per Game 4.8
1.5Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+151 Elo
📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

YorkYork
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)
GillinghamGillingham
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

YorkYork
3W2D5L
22/09/2026
YorkRotherham
4151
L
19/09/2026
ChesterfieldYork
20
L
15/09/2026
YorkNewcastle United U21
13
L
12/09/2026
YorkSwindon Town
40
W
05/09/2026
CreweYork
11
D
01/09/2026
CheltenhamYork
32
L
29/08/2026
YorkExeter City
21
W
22/08/2026
RotherhamYork
11
D
15/08/2026
YorkBristol Rovers
32
W
03/08/2026
YorkCrawley Town
02
L
GillinghamGillingham
4W3D3L
22/09/2026
GillinghamCambridge United
14
L
19/09/2026
GillinghamBristol Rovers
30
W
12/09/2026
GillinghamTranmere
20
W
05/09/2026
RochdaleGillingham
14
W
01/09/2026
ChesterfieldGillingham
11
D
29/08/2026
GillinghamNorthampton
11
D
22/08/2026
Fleetwood TownGillingham
00
D
15/08/2026
GillinghamWalsall
03
L
08/08/2026
GillinghamLuton
03
L
31/07/2026
Ebbsfleet UnitedGillingham
12
W

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Salford CitySalford City1281319:12+725WWWWW
2BarnetBarnet1063123:15+821LWWWW
3CreweCrewe1256115:11+421LWWWD
4WalsallWalsall1147016:7+919WDDDW
5CheltenhamCheltenham1253421:22-118WLLLW
6YorkYork1145219:13+617DDDWL
7GillinghamGillingham1245317:14+317DLWDL
8ShrewsburyShrewsbury1252513:17-417WWLWD
9ChesterfieldChesterfield1244418:16+216DLDWL
10Exeter CityExeter City124448:6+216WDWWL
11Accrington STAccrington ST1236317:16+115DWDWD
12Newport CountyNewport County1236316:15+115DDWDW
13TranmereTranmere1236315:15015WLDLD
14RochdaleRochdale1243515:17-215DLDWW
15Swindon TownSwindon Town1243513:16-315WDLLD
16Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1250716:20-415LLLLW
17GrimsbyGrimsby1235415:15014DLLLL
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1235414:15-114LWDLL
19ColchesterColchester1126311:14-312DDLDD
20Port ValePort Vale103346:10-412DWWLW
21OldhamOldham1132613:17-411LWDLL
22RotherhamRotherham1225514:20-611DLLLD
23NorthamptonNorthampton102446:8-210LWDLL
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1012711:20-95LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Salford CitySalford City1219:1225
2BarnetBarnet1023:1521
3CreweCrewe1215:1121
4WalsallWalsall1116:719
5CheltenhamCheltenham1221:2218
6YorkYork1119:1317
7GillinghamGillingham1217:1417
8ShrewsburyShrewsbury1213:1717
9ChesterfieldChesterfield1218:1616
10Exeter CityExeter City128:616
11Accrington STAccrington ST1217:1615
12Newport CountyNewport County1216:1515
13TranmereTranmere1215:1515
14RochdaleRochdale1215:1715
15Swindon TownSwindon Town1213:1615
16Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1216:2015
17GrimsbyGrimsby1215:1514
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1214:1514
19ColchesterColchester1111:1412
20Port ValePort Vale106:1012
21OldhamOldham1113:1711
22RotherhamRotherham1214:2011
23NorthamptonNorthampton106:810
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1011:205
PromotionRelegation

About the York vs Gillingham forecast

The forecasts for this League Two match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

York and Gillingham in the League Two table

In the League Two table, York (6th) and Gillingham (7th) are level on 17 points. League goal record so far: York 19-13, Gillingham 17-14. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

York and Gillingham have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.