America Mineiro vs Juventude Prediction

America Mineiro
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Juventude
Arena Independência, Bello Harisanta·Lucas Casagrande 29/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.20
SignalHIGHModel55%SurpriseMediumGap-8.0%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.62
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+4.4%
America Mineiro Rest
10 days
Juventude Rest
9 days

America Mineiro vs Juventude: the result in context

Juventude beat America Mineiro 1-0 in the Serie B on 28 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 5 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them. Referee Lucas Casagrande averages 4.60 cards a game, 0.50 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
22%4.16
X
26%3.28
2
52%1.87
Double Chance
1X
48%1.85
X2
79%1.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.98
No
51%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.04 + 1.62 = 2.66
Over 1.5
70%1.36
Over 2.5
46%2.16
Over 3.5
27%3.80
Under 1.5
30%2.90
Under 2.5
54%1.65
Under 3.5
73%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 5.2 = 10.7
Over 8.5
74%1.34
Over 9.5
64%1.69
Over 10.5
48%2.07
Under 8.5
26%2.83
Under 9.5
36%2.11
Under 10.5
52%1.69
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.1 = 4.3
Over 3.5
63%-
Over 4.5
44%2.00
Under 3.5
37%-
Under 4.5
56%1.73

Match Events

29'Bruno Brigido INGustavo out
45'Tobias Ostchega INLuidy Montes Carneiro out
56'Otavio GoncalvesFoul
57'Diogo BarbosaFoul
57'Alan Kardec INLuis Amarilla out
57'Mandaca INMarcos Paulo out
58'Gabriel Pires
58'Lucas Mineiro INGabriel Pires out
61'Marcos PauloAssist: Gabriel Pires
62'Julio César Leme Do Nascimento INKaique Zizero Moreira Dorna out
62'Otavio Goncalves INFelipe out
69'Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior INGabriel Barbosa Pinheiro out
69'Diogo Barbosa INPatryck out
76'Matías Segovia INMarcelo Enrique Maçola Filho out
77'Fabio lima INManuel Castro out
82'Barreto INHeitor Manuel Barcelos Lima out

Lineups

America Mineiro
4-2-3-1Coach: Douglas Leite
Juventude
3-5-2Coach: Maurício Barbieri
Avg rating6.46
Avg rating7.07
Bruno Brígido6.891B. Brígido
Fábio Almeida6.431F. Almeida
Rafael Barcelos7.04R. Barcelos
L. Sosa6.63L. Sosa
T. Ostchega6.125T. Ostchega
Barreto6.188Barreto
5555O. Goncalves
Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio6.337C. Leme Do Nascimento Julio
M. Segovia6.277M. Segovia
Paulo Victor6.720P. Victor
Willian6.49Willian
Jandrei7.893Jandrei
Rodrigo Sam7.734R. Sam
Messias7.54Messias
Marcos Paulo7.947M. Paulo
Aderlan6.513Aderlan
Raí7.275Raí
Lucas Mineiro7.18L. Mineiro
Mandaca7.344Mandaca
Diogo Barbosa6.316D. Barbosa
Fábio Lima6.311F. Lima
Alan Kardec6.79A. Kardec

America Mineiro Substitutes

8Felipe Amaral62'replaced by Otavio Goncalves6.6
1Gustavo29'for Bruno Brigido6.9
19William
13Heitor82'for Barreto6.5
5F. Elizari
99Marcelo Macola76'for Matías Segovia6.2
30L. Montes45'for Tobias Ostchega6.6
32Filipe
93J. Jiménez
26Manoel
70Kaique Zizero Moreira Dorna62'replaced by Julio César Leme Do Nascimento
71Cristian Do Espirito Santo Rodrigues

Juventude Substitutes

12Pedro Rocha
70Juan Christian
5Luan Gonçalves
30Patryck69'for Diogo Barbosa6.9
10Marcos Paulo57'for Mandaca61'7.8
3Titi
17M. Castro77'for Fabio lima6.5
97Gabriel Pinheiro69'for Messias Rodrigues da Silva Júnior7.2
29Gabriel Pires58'58'for Lucas Mineiro6.9
18L. Amarilla57'for Alan Kardec6.7
72Lucas Alves
2Raí Ramos

Match Stats

America MineiroJuventude
42%Ball Possession58%
3Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards3
13Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal5
4Shots Inside Box11
9Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots9
14Fouls9
3Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves4
402Total Passes569
324Passes Accurate495
9Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
JuventudeJuventude
1451Elo Rating 1696
0.27Attack 2.02
2.10Defense 2.00
27%Hit Rate 50%
12.7Shots per Game 15.1
3.3Shots on Target 4.6
5.0Corners per Game 5.2
3.1Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.3 vs 0 in first half)
JuventudeJuventude
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

America MineiroAmerica Mineiro2Wins · 40%
Draws240%
JuventudeJuventude1Wins · 20%
2.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie B30/05/2026
JuventudeAmerica Mineiro
30
Serie A06/08/2022
JuventudeAmerica Mineiro
01
Serie A17/04/2022
America MineiroJuventude
41
Serie A10/10/2021
JuventudeAmerica Mineiro
11
Serie A24/06/2021
America MineiroJuventude
11

Referee Profile

Lucas Casagrande68 matches

4.60Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
27.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Lucas Casagrande4.60
Other referees5.10

4.60 cards a match, 0.50 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.10).

Cards come from 52 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Vila NovaVila Nova34188848:33+1562DWDWW
2NovorizontinoNovorizontino341710761:30+3161DWWWD
3JuventudeJuventude341710741:23+1861DDWWW
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC341612641:29+1260WDWDD
5CriciumaCriciuma34178935:28+759WWLWW
6Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense341412842:32+1054DDLWW
7CRBCRB341571251:48+352LDWLW
8Sport RecifeSport Recife341312945:37+851LDWWL
9GoiasGoias341471334:40-649DWWLL
10Operario-PROperario-PR341391244:46-248LLLLD
11CuiabaCuiaba341114932:27+547LLDWL
12São BernardoSão Bernardo3412101246:37+946LDLWD
13Botafogo SPBotafogo SP341281438:38044WWWLW
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3410141040:39+144DDLLD
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3411101339:42-343DLLDW
16CearaCeara3411101337:42-543DLWWD
17AvaiAvai341071733:43-1037DWWLL
18LondrinaLondrina34881843:49-632WDLLL
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro34552422:54-3220WLLLL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta34352619:74-5514DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Vila NovaVila Nova3448:3362
2NovorizontinoNovorizontino3461:3061
3JuventudeJuventude3441:2361
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3441:2960
5CriciumaCriciuma3435:2859
6Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3442:3254
7CRBCRB3451:4852
8Sport RecifeSport Recife3445:3751
9GoiasGoias3434:4049
10Operario-PROperario-PR3444:4648
11CuiabaCuiaba3432:2747
12São BernardoSão Bernardo3446:3746
13Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3438:3844
14Athletic ClubAthletic Club3440:3944
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3439:4243
16CearaCeara3437:4243
17AvaiAvai3433:4337
18LondrinaLondrina3443:4932
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3422:5420
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3419:7414
PromotionRelegation

About the America Mineiro vs Juventude forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

America Mineiro and Juventude in the Serie B table

The table shows a wide gap: Juventude are 3rd in the Serie B, while America Mineiro sit 19th, 41 points behind. League goal record so far: America Mineiro 22-54, Juventude 41-23. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.