Vila Nova vs America Mineiro Prediction

Vila Nova
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
America Mineiro
Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania·Fabiano Monteiro dos Santos 19/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.44
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+3.6%
Value Analysis
76%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.44
SignalHIGHModel76%SurpriseMediumGap+8.3%
Vila Nova Rest
3 days
America Mineiro Rest
4 days

Vila Nova vs America Mineiro: result, form and history

Vila Nova beat America Mineiro 1-0 in the Serie B on 18 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 5 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them. Vila Nova tend to win more corners, 6.1 a game to 3.9 for America Mineiro.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
75%1.44
X
18%3.94
2
7%7.30
Double Chance
1X
93%1.08
X2
25%2.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%2.20
No
51%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.75 + 0.88 = 2.63
Over 1.5
77%1.33
Over 2.5
53%2.10
Over 3.5
31%3.75
Under 1.5
23%3.00
Under 2.5
47%1.71
Under 3.5
69%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.3 = 10.3
Over 8.5
67%1.30
Over 9.5
56%1.56
Over 10.5
46%1.94
Under 8.5
33%2.97
Under 9.5
44%2.27
Under 10.5
54%1.85
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.4 = 4.3
Over 3.5
62%-
Over 4.5
43%1.67
Under 3.5
38%-
Under 4.5
57%2.10

Match Events

14'André Luís
32'Guilherme Parede INMatías Segovia out
62'Higor Luiz de SouzaFoul
63'Marquinhos Gabriel INRaphael Guimarães de Paula out
63'Everton Galdino INRyan lima out
63'Julio César Leme Do Nascimento INMarcelo Enrique Maçola Filho out
63'Felipe INJorge Jiménez out
79'Higor Luiz de Souza INIgor Cariús out
79'João Pedro Vieira INWillian Maranhão out
82'Paulo Victor·Ferreira de JesusFoul
86'Tobias Ostchega INFernando Elizari out
86'Otavio Goncalves INLuidy Montes Carneiro out
86'André Luís INWillian Prado Camargo out
88'Raphael Guimarães de PaulaFoul
90+6'Willian Prado CamargoArgument
90+7'WillianArgument

Lineups

Vila Nova
4-2-3-1Coach: Guto Ferreira
America Mineiro
4-2-3-1Coach: Douglas Leite
Avg rating7.00
Avg rating6.58
Helton Leite7.61H. Leite
Hayner7.722Hayner
Douglas Mendes7.04D. Mendes
Jonathan Costa7.523J. Costa
Higor6.46Higor
João Vieira6.85J. Vieira
Dudu6.715Dudu
Everton Galdino6.717E. Galdino
Marquinhos Gabriel6.910M. Gabriel
Janderson6.699Janderson
André Luís7.87A. Luís
Bruno Brígido6.491B. Brígido
Fábio Almeida7.031F. Almeida
Rafael Barcelos6.74R. Barcelos
L. Sosa6.93L. Sosa
T. Ostchega6.625T. Ostchega
Felipe Amaral6.58F. Amaral
5555O. Goncalves
Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio6.437C. Leme Do Nascimento Julio
Willian6.69Willian
Guilherme Parede6.87G. Parede
Paulo Victor6.420P. Victor

Vila Nova Substitutes

8Willian Maranhão79'for João Pedro Vieira6.8
33Bruno Xavier
29Dalberson
31Dodô63'for Marquinhos Gabriel88'6.3
70Emerson Urso
18Enzo
21Higor Meritão
16Igor Cariús79'for Higor Luiz de Souza7.0
20Nathan Camargo
13Willian Formiga86'for André Luís90+6'7.1
9Puskas Gustavo
11Ryan Lima63'for Everton Galdino7.2

America Mineiro Substitutes

93J. Jiménez63'for Felipe7.2
1Gustavo
5F. Elizari86'for Tobias Ostchega6.3
77M. Segovia32'for Guilherme Parede6.6
15Alex Silva
71Cristian Do Espirito Santo Rodrigues
70Kaique Zizero Moreira Dorna
30L. Montes86'replaced by Otavio Goncalves6.1
99Marcelo Macola63'for Julio César Leme Do Nascimento6.1
13Heitor

Match Stats

Vila NovaAmerica Mineiro
41%Ball Possession59%
5Corner Kicks5
4Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots20
2Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal10
8Shots Inside Box9
6Shots Outside Box11
8Blocked Shots5
20Fouls16
2Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves1
331Total Passes482
257Passes Accurate409
16Free Kicks20

Team Comparison

Vila NovaVila Nova
America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
1661Elo Rating 1489
1.72Attack 1.23
1.38Defense 2.42
17%Hit Rate 69%
14.1Shots per Game 9.9
5.1Shots on Target 3.2
6.1Corners per Game 3.9
2.6Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+171 Elo
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Vila NovaVila Nova
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
America MineiroAmerica Mineiro
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Vila NovaVila Nova2Wins · 40%
Draws120%
America MineiroAmerica Mineiro2Wins · 40%
2.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie B24/05/2026
America MineiroVila Nova
12
Serie B09/10/2025
America MineiroVila Nova
11
Serie B14/06/2025
Vila NovaAmerica Mineiro
03
Serie B25/08/2024
Vila NovaAmerica Mineiro
10
Serie B09/05/2024
America MineiroVila Nova
31

Referee Profile

Fabiano Monteiro dos Santos47 matches

4.63Cards per match
4.33Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Fabiano Monteiro dos Santos4.63
Other referees4.77

4.63 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.77).

Cards come from 27 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino372010766:32+3470WWWDW
2JuventudeJuventude371911749:26+2368WDWDD
3Vila NovaVila Nova37199953:38+1566WDLDW
4CriciumaCriciuma371881138:31+762LWLWW
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC371614744:33+1162LDDWD
6CRBCRB371771357:51+658WLWLD
7GoiasGoias371771339:41-258WWWDW
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense371513945:35+1058WDLDD
9Operario-PROperario-PR381691351:50+157WWLWL
10Sport RecifeSport Recife3714131050:42+855LDWLD
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3814111354:44+1053DLWWL
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP371491445:39+651WDWWW
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club3811151246:46048DLWLD
14CuiabaCuiaba3711141234:32+247LLLLL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3812101641:51-1046LLWLD
16CearaCeara3711101638:47-943LLLDL
17AvaiAvai371171935:47-1240WLLDW
18LondrinaLondrina38982147:59-1235WLLLW
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro37852427:55-2829WWWWL
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta38362921:81-6015LLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3766:3270
2JuventudeJuventude3749:2668
3Vila NovaVila Nova3753:3866
4CriciumaCriciuma3738:3162
5Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3744:3362
6CRBCRB3757:5158
7GoiasGoias3739:4158
8Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3745:3558
9Operario-PROperario-PR3851:5057
10Sport RecifeSport Recife3750:4255
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3854:4453
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3745:3951
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club3846:4648
14CuiabaCuiaba3734:3247
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3841:5146
16CearaCeara3738:4743
17AvaiAvai3735:4740
18LondrinaLondrina3847:5935
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3727:5529
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3821:8115
PromotionRelegation

About the Vila Nova vs America Mineiro forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Vila Nova and America Mineiro in the Serie B table

The table shows a wide gap: Vila Nova are 3rd in the Serie B, while America Mineiro sit 19th, 37 points behind. League goal record so far: Vila Nova 53-38, America Mineiro 27-55. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.