Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction

Burgos
2-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Celta de Vigo II
Municipal El Plantio, Burgos·Morales Moreno Pablo 07/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Burgos Rest
5 days
Celta de Vigo II Rest
6 days

Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II: the result in context

Burgos beat Celta de Vigo II 2-1 in the Segunda División on 7 Nov 2026. It was in line with recent form: Burgos had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Celta de Vigo II.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.65
X
23%3.77
2
21%5.00
Double Chance
1X
79%1.16
X2
44%2.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.80
No
48%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.62 + 0.95 = 2.57
Over 1.5
75%1.25
Over 2.5
52%1.85
Over 3.5
31%3.15
Under 1.5
25%3.65
Under 2.5
48%1.95
Under 3.5
69%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 3.4 = 9.5
Over 8.5
60%1.68
Over 9.5
48%2.11
Over 10.5
36%2.74
Under 8.5
40%2.08
Under 9.5
52%1.65
Under 10.5
64%1.35
Cards
Projected Cards: + =
Over 3.5
--
Over 4.5
-1.42
Under 3.5
--
Under 4.5
-2.71

Match Events

12'Alvaro·Marin SesmaAssist: Aldrine Kibet
27'Victor MollejoFoul
29'Joel LopezFoul
45'Frank Germain Jonathan Miller INHugo Cuenca out
49'Alvaro·Marin SesmaFoul
50'Adrià CapdevilaFoul
58'Brais Martínez INJavier Llabrés Exposito out
58'Pablo Galdames INIgnasi Vilarrasa Palacios out
68'CurroAssist: Alberto Dadie
74'Ángel Arcos INPablo González Meixús out
74'Jan Oliveras INVladimir Henrique Silva out
74'Alberto Dadie INJosé Gragera out
75'Victor Mollejo INKevin Appin out
77'Saul Del Cerro Garcia INSergio González out
82'Adrià Capdevila INStefan Bajcetic out
83'Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye INNoah Rodríguez Guallar out
86'Álex ForésAssist: Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios
89'Enrique Ribes RecajFoul

Lineups

Burgos
4-4-2Coach: Sergio Francisco
Celta de Vigo II
3-4-2-1Coach: Fredi
Avg rating6.80
Avg rating6.44
Ander Cantero6.313A. Cantero
Álex6.42Álex
Oier Luengo6.815O. Luengo
Saúl del Cerro7.118S. del Cerro
Brais Martínez6.422B. Martínez
Alberto Dadie7.723A. Dadie
Unai Vencedor6.212U. Vencedor
P. Galdames7.04P. Galdames
Víctor Mollejo6.511V. Mollejo
Álex Forés8.29Á. Forés
Curro Sánchez8.216C. Sánchez
Coke Carrillo6.41C. Carrillo
K. Ribes6.33K. Ribes
S. M. Ndiaye6.84S. M. Ndiaye
Joel López6.218J. López
G. Miller6.023G. Miller
Adrià Capdevila6.416A. Capdevila
M. Sobral6.729M. Sobral
Jan Oliveras6.314J. Oliveras
A. Kibet6.815A. Kibet
Ángel Arcos6.511Á. Arcos
A. Marin7.69A. Marin

Burgos Substitutes

10K. Appin75'for Victor Mollejo6.0
17Mario Cantero
5Marcelo Expósito
21Fermin Garcia
3Ignasi Vilarrasa58'for Pablo Galdames6.6
6Sergio González77'for Saul Del Cerro Garcia6.1
20José Gragera74'for Alberto Dadie6.4
1Bruno Iribarne
19Javi Llabrés58'for Brais Martínez7.0
36I. Martinez
30M. Monedero
31Irian Ribas

Celta de Vigo II Substitutes

33David Sueiro Muiños
27Noah Rodríguez Guallar83'replaced by Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye
28Vladimir Henrique Silva74'replaced by Jan Oliveras
6P. Meixus74'for Ángel Arcos6.1
25M. Gonzalez
19A. Davila Outerelo
17H. Cuenca45'for Frank Germain Jonathan Miller6.6
31Raúl Chirveches Sánchez
13Caio Barone
22Stefan Bajčetić82'for Adrià Capdevila5.9

Match Stats

BurgosCelta de Vigo II
59%Ball Possession41%
10Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards4
19Total Shots8
6Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal3
17Shots Inside Box4
2Shots Outside Box4
5Blocked Shots4
13Fouls9
1Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves4
530Total Passes369
444Passes Accurate293
9Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

BurgosBurgos
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
1692Elo Rating 1559
1.94Attack 1.91
1.74Defense 0.53
59%Hit Rate 17%
13.7Shots per Game 12.1
5.6Shots on Target 5.8
4.0Corners per Game 3.3
2.6Cards per Game 3.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+133 Elo
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

BurgosBurgos
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

BurgosBurgos1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II0Wins · 0%
1.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2

Previous meetings

Primera División RFEF - Group 109/05/2021
BurgosCelta de Vigo II
10
Primera División RFEF - Group 118/04/2021
Celta de Vigo IIBurgos
11

Referee Profile

Morales Moreno Pablo3 matches analysed

4.67Cards per match
4.51Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
24.2Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 68% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CastellónCastellón1393124:5+1930WDWWL
2AlmeriaAlmeria1392224:10+1429WDDWW
3BurgosBurgos1473420:17+324LWDWW
4EibarEibar1272321:14+723DLDLW
5Granada CFGranada CF1272320:14+623WWWWW
6Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1472516:17-123DLWLW
7MallorcaMallorca1264215:7+822WDDWD
8GironaGirona1363422:12+1021LLWWD
9OviedoOviedo1363419:16+321WLDWW
10Las PalmasLas Palmas1362519:21-220WWWLL
11CordobaCordoba1361622:22019WDWWL
12ValladolidValladolid1453622:21+118LWWLL
13SabadellSabadell1346312:11+118DLDLW
14TenerifeTenerife1236315:17-215DDDDL
15LeganesLeganes1443714:24-1015WLLDL
16EldenseEldense1342713:19-614LLLWW
17Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1334619:25-613LDLDW
18Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1434717:24-713DDWLL
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1232717:22-511DLLWD
20CadizCadiz1324716:18-210LLWLL
21AlbaceteAlbacete1331913:24-1110WWWLL
22AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC13121010:30-205LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1CastellónCastellón1324:530
2AlmeriaAlmeria1324:1029
3BurgosBurgos1420:1724
4EibarEibar1221:1423
5Granada CFGranada CF1220:1423
6Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1416:1723
7MallorcaMallorca1215:722
8GironaGirona1322:1221
9OviedoOviedo1319:1621
10Las PalmasLas Palmas1319:2120
11CordobaCordoba1322:2219
12ValladolidValladolid1422:2118
13SabadellSabadell1312:1118
14TenerifeTenerife1215:1715
15LeganesLeganes1414:2415
16EldenseEldense1313:1914
17Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1319:2513
18Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1417:2413
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1217:2211
20CadizCadiz1316:1810
21AlbaceteAlbacete1313:2410
22AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1310:305
PromotionRelegation

About the Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II forecast

The forecasts for this Segunda División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Burgos and Celta de Vigo II in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Burgos are 3rd and Celta de Vigo II 17th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: Burgos 20-17, Celta de Vigo II 19-25. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Burgos and Celta de Vigo II have met only 2 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.