Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II Prediction

El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini, Gijon·German Cid Camacho 04/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalHIGHModel55%SurpriseMediumGap-6.0%
Sporting Gijon Rest
6 days
Celta de Vigo II Rest
7 days

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II: the result in context

Sporting Gijon beat Celta de Vigo II 3-2 in the Segunda División on 4 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.68
X
27%3.65
2
20%4.80
Double Chance
1X
80%1.18
X2
48%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.78
No
49%1.91
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.42 + 1.13 = 2.55
Over 1.5
74%1.28
Over 2.5
51%1.87
Over 3.5
29%3.25
Under 1.5
26%3.50
Under 2.5
49%1.90
Under 3.5
71%1.31
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4 = 9.4
Over 8.5
58%1.56
Over 9.5
47%2.00
Over 10.5
37%2.56
Under 8.5
42%2.22
Under 9.5
53%1.75
Under 10.5
63%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.6 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%-
Over 4.5
54%1.56
Under 3.5
28%-
Under 4.5
46%2.35

Match Events

8'Óscar Marcos
25'Andres CuencaFoul
33'Antonio Manuel Casas Marin
45'Pablo García INIker Martinez Martinez out
45'Andres Cuenca INDiego Sánchez out
45'Antonio Manuel Casas Marin INAlejo Sarco out
45+8'Card upgrade confirmedPablo González Meixús
45+9'Pablo González Meixús
45+11'Antonio Manuel Casas Marin
50'Anxo Rodríguez ÁlvarezFoul
57'Alejo SarcoFoul
58'Enol Prendes Ortiz INDiego Matabuena Álvarez out
60'Guillermo RosasAssist: Diego Matabuena Álvarez
61'Anxo Rodríguez Álvarez INÁngel Arcos out
61'Frank Germain Jonathan Miller INVladimir Henrique Silva out
69'Manuel Rodríguez PazFoul
75'Gaspar Campos INMiguel Conde out
77'Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezFoul
78'Aldrine KibetAssist: Alvaro·Marin Sesma
82'Alvaro·Marin Sesma INJorge Pérez-Lafuente Rey out
82'Aldrine Kibet INDavid Sueiro Muiños out
86'Enrique Ribes RecajFoul
89'Joel Lopez INJan Oliveras out
90'Miguel CondeFoul

Lineups

Sporting Gijon
3-4-3Coach: N. Larcamón
Celta de Vigo II
3-4-3Coach: Fredi
Avg rating6.63
Avg rating6.45
Rubén Yáñez6.91R. Yáñez
Aimar Duñabeitia6.624A. Duñabeitia
Jorge Sáenz6.823J. Sáenz
Andrés Cuenca6.244A. Cuenca
Guille Rosas7.22G. Rosas
M. Rodriguez6.38M. Rodriguez
Álex Corredera6.414Á. Corredera
Pablo García6.03P. García
Enol Prendes6.527E. Prendes
Antonio Casas9.317A. Casas
Gaspar Campos6.77G. Campos
Coke Carrillo6.11C. Carrillo
P. Gavian6.72P. Gavian
K. Ribes6.23K. Ribes
A. Rodriguez6.020A. Rodriguez
G. Miller5.723G. Miller
Adrià Capdevila6.416A. Capdevila
P. Meixus5.16P. Meixus
Joel López6.418J. López
A. Kibet7.815A. Kibet
A. Marin6.79A. Marin
O. Marcos8.010O. Marcos

Sporting Gijon Substitutes

13Arana
35C. Ferreres
4E. Gularte
26Iker Martínez45'for Pablo García6.1
5Diego Sánchez45'for Andres Cuenca6.5
16A. Sarco45'for Antonio Manuel Casas Marin57'6.4
15Pablo Vázquez
34Diego Matabuena Álvarez58'replaced by Enol Prendes Ortiz77'
28M. Conde75'for Gaspar Campos90'6.3

Celta de Vigo II Substitutes

13Caio Barone
19A. Davila Outerelo
11Ángel Arcos61'for Anxo Rodríguez Álvarez7.2
14Jan Oliveras89'for Joel Lopez5.9
21Alexis Olmedo
28Vladimir Henrique Silva61'replaced by Frank Germain Jonathan Miller
25M. Gonzalez
26Jorge Pérez-Lafuente Rey82'replaced by Alvaro·Marin Sesma
27Noah Rodríguez Guallar
33David Sueiro Muiños82'replaced by Aldrine Kibet
4S. M. Ndiaye

Match Stats

Sporting GijonCelta de Vigo II
45%Ball Possession55%
6Corner Kicks6
5Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
13Total Shots14
7Shots on Goal8
4Shots off Goal4
7Shots Inside Box11
6Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots2
14Fouls10
1Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves4
468Total Passes485
388Passes Accurate411
10Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
1644Elo Rating 1561
1.78Attack 1.75
1.87Defense 0.59
83%Hit Rate 19%
11.0Shots per Game 9.4
3.7Shots on Target 4.7
4.6Corners per Game 3.1
3.8Cards per Game 3.1

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
4W1D5L
27/09/2026
OviedoSporting Gijon
20
L
19/09/2026
FC AndorraSporting Gijon
13
W
13/09/2026
Sporting GijonEldense
01
L
05/09/2026
Sporting GijonGirona
02
L
28/08/2026
TenerifeSporting Gijon
01
W
23/08/2026
Sporting GijonBurgos
10
W
17/08/2026
Sporting GijonSabadell
00
D
08/08/2026
Sporting GijonValladolid
24
L
07/08/2026
Racing SantanderSporting Gijon
41
L
01/08/2026
Gimnástica TorrelavegaSporting Gijon
05
W
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
4W3D3L
26/09/2026
Celta de Vigo IISabadell
11
D
20/09/2026
AlmeriaCelta de Vigo II
20
L
14/09/2026
Celta de Vigo IIEibar
04
L
05/09/2026
AD Ceuta FCCelta de Vigo II
02
W
31/08/2026
Celta de Vigo IICastellón
12
L
24/08/2026
Celta de Vigo IIFC Andorra
42
W
15/08/2026
CadizCelta de Vigo II
00
D
01/08/2026
VizelaCelta de Vigo II
01
W
20/06/2026
Celta de Vigo IIPonferradina
41
W
13/06/2026
PonferradinaCelta de Vigo II
00
D

Referee Profile

German Cid Camacho113 matches

5.34Cards per match
5.10Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
26.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

German Cid Camacho5.34
Other referees5.13

5.34 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.13).

Cards come from 70 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CastellónCastellón1182122:4+1826WWLDW
2AlmeriaAlmeria1181222:9+1325DWWWW
3EibarEibar1171320:13+722LDLWW
4GironaGirona1163222:10+1221WWDDW
5Granada CFGranada CF1162318:14+420WWWWL
6BurgosBurgos1162316:12+420WWLLW
7MallorcaMallorca1154213:6+719DDWDL
8Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1161411:13-219LWWWL
9OviedoOviedo1153315:12+318DWWLW
10SabadellSabadell1145211:9+217DLWDD
11CordobaCordoba1150617:20-315WWLWL
12TenerifeTenerife1135313:15-214DDDLD
13EldenseEldense1142513:15-214LWWWL
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1142514:19-514WLLDL
15ValladolidValladolid1133516:16012LLWDW
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1133516:21-512LDWLD
17LeganesLeganes113357:16-912DLLLL
18CadizCadiz1124514:14010WLLWD
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1131715:20-510LLWDW
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1122714:22-88LLLLL
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1112810:25-155LLLDW
22AlbaceteAlbacete111198:22-144WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1CastellónCastellón1122:426
2AlmeriaAlmeria1122:925
3EibarEibar1120:1322
4GironaGirona1122:1021
5Granada CFGranada CF1118:1420
6BurgosBurgos1116:1220
7MallorcaMallorca1113:619
8Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1111:1319
9OviedoOviedo1115:1218
10SabadellSabadell1111:917
11CordobaCordoba1117:2015
12TenerifeTenerife1113:1514
13EldenseEldense1113:1514
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1114:1914
15ValladolidValladolid1116:1612
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1116:2112
17LeganesLeganes117:1612
18CadizCadiz1114:1410
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1115:2010
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1114:228
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1110:255
22AlbaceteAlbacete118:224
PromotionRelegation

About the Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II forecast

The forecasts for this Segunda División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Sporting Gijon are 8th and Celta de Vigo II 16th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Sporting Gijon 11-13, Celta de Vigo II 16-21. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Sporting Gijon have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.