Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction

Ticha Stadium, Varna·Ventsislav Mitrev, Bulgaria 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
Value Analysis
58%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams NOT to Score
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+7.6%
Cherno More Varna Rest
7 days
Ludogorets Rest
7 days

Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets: the result in context

Ludogorets beat Cherno More Varna 3-2 in the First League on 9 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Ludogorets had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Cherno More Varna.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.6 goals a game. Referee Ventsislav Mitrev averages 6.20 cards a game, 1.49 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
16%4.65
X
24%3.54
2
60%1.70
Double Chance
1X
40%2.02
X2
84%1.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%1.88
No
58%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.84 + 1.58 = 2.42
Over 1.5
68%1.30
Over 2.5
45%1.99
Over 3.5
25%3.35
Under 1.5
32%3.20
Under 2.5
55%1.78
Under 3.5
75%1.28
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

28'A. Nedyalkov
30'G. LazarovAssist: E. Tombak
34'M. Achi
39'E. Kurtulus
46'A. Salido Tajero INNathan Fernandes out
46'P. Stanic INA. Camara out
48'Rwan Cruz
51'Rwan Cruz
53'I. ChochevAssist: S. Shishkov
63'Z. Atanasov INN. Zlatev out
64'V. Panayotov INC. Sidney out
64'G. Lazarov INB. Beyhan out
65'J. Andersson INM. Polendakov out
68'N. Zlatev
68'Nathan Fernandes
74'Rwan Cruz INK. Duah out
77'A. Kolev INJ. Padilla out
77'M. Achi INI. Bounaas out
82'B. Beyhan
84'N. Zlatev
87'B. Tekpetey IND. Duarte out

Lineups

Cherno More Varna
3-5-2Coach: Ilian Iliev
Ludogorets
4-2-3-1Coach: Thomas Reis
Kristian Tomov81K. Tomov
Zhivko Atanasov3Z. Atanasov
Luciano Squadrone5L. Squadrone
João Bandaro26J. Bandaro
Ertan Tombak50E. Tombak
Vasil Panayotov71V. Panayotov
David Teles24D. Teles
Mohamed Achi11M. Achi
Emanuil Nyagolov13E. Nyagolov
Georgi Lazarov19G. Lazarov
Aleksandar Kolev20A. Kolev
Hendrik Bonmann39H. Bonmann
Joel Andersson2J. Andersson
Edvin Kurtulus15E. Kurtulus
Anton Nedyalkov3A. Nedyalkov
Simeon Shishkov42S. Shishkov
Ivajlo Chochev18I. Chochev
Filip Kaloč26F. Kaloč
Alberto Salido7A. Salido
Petar Stanić14P. Stanić
Bernard Tekpetey37B. Tekpetey
Rwan Cruz12R. Cruz

Cherno More Varna Substitutes

29Berk Beyhan64'for G. Lazarov82'
39Nikolay Zlatev63'for Z. Atanasov68'84'
10Celso Sidney64'for V. Panayotov
31Damyan Hristov
37Ventsislav Kerchev
93Georgi Ventsislavov
23Martin Banev
99Idris Bounaas77'for M. Achi
22Nikolay Petrov Kostadinov
14Aleksandar Todorov
9Jorge Padilla77'for A. Kolev

Ludogorets Substitutes

20Aguibou Camara46'for P. Stanic
10Nathan Fernandes46'for A. Salido Tajero68'
22Mihail Polendakov65'for J. Andersson
9Kwadwo Duah74'for Rwan Cruz
1Sergio Padt
24Olivier Verdon
27Vinicius Nogueira
23Deroy Duarte87'for B. Tekpetey
40Aleksandar Marinov
82Ivan Yordanov
29Yves Erick Bile

Team Comparison

Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
LudogoretsLudogorets
1467Elo Rating 1664
1.26Attack 2.27
2.30Defense 2.15
46%Hit Rate 73%
9.4Shots per Game 14.0
3.8Shots on Target 5.2
3.0Corners per Game 6.5
3.9Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
  • No tendency data available
LudogoretsLudogorets
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.9 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna3Wins · 30%
Draws440%
LudogoretsLudogorets3Wins · 30%
1.6Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored2 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

First League09/04/2026
LudogoretsCherno More Varna
00
First League02/11/2025
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets
00
First League13/05/2025
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets
20
First League27/04/2025
LudogoretsCherno More Varna
20
First League22/02/2025
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets
11
First League01/09/2024
LudogoretsCherno More Varna
00
First League19/05/2024
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets
40
First League19/02/2024
LudogoretsCherno More Varna
31
First League20/08/2023
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets
10
First League07/06/2023
Cherno More VarnaLudogorets
01

Recent Form

Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
3W4D3L
01/08/2026
Botev PlovdivCherno More Varna
10
L
26/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaSpartak Varna
03
L
19/07/2026
Botev VratsaCherno More Varna
11
D
11/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
11
D
08/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaDobrudzha
22
D
08/07/2026
Farul ConstantaCherno More Varna
01
W
03/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaSpartak Pleven
10
W
01/07/2026
Cherno More VarnaLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
00
D
24/06/2026
Yantra 2019Cherno More Varna
01
W
25/05/2026
Cherno More VarnaArda Kardzhali
23
L
LudogoretsLudogorets
7W2D1L
02/08/2026
LudogoretsBotev Vratsa
21
W
30/07/2026
LudogoretsHapoel Tel Aviv
22
D
27/07/2026
Dunav RuseLudogorets
02
W
23/07/2026
Hapoel Tel AvivLudogorets
20
L
18/07/2026
LudogoretsLokomotiv Plovdiv
10
W
10/07/2026
LudogoretsTeuta Durrës
10
W
10/07/2026
LudogoretsSeptemvri Sofia
10
W
04/07/2026
LudogoretsFC Botosani
22
D
26/06/2026
LudogoretsEtar Veliko Tarnovo
74
W
29/05/2026
LudogoretsLokomotiv Plovdiv
3010
W

Referee Profile

Ventsislav Mitrev63 matches

6.20Cards per match
6.00Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
24.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ventsislav Mitrev6.20
Other referees4.71

6.20 cards a match, 1.49 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.71).

Cards come from 15 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Levski SofiaLevski Sofia12102025:5+2032WDWDW
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1394029:9+2031DWWDW
3LudogoretsLudogorets1292124:9+1529WLWWW
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481391331:14+1728WWLWW
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1371522:20+222WLWWW
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1253416:18-218DLDLL
7Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia132749:9013DDLLD
8Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1334612:23-1113LLWLD
9Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1332815:22-711LWWDL
10Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1224610:21-1110DLDDW
11Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv132386:17-119LDDDL
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1316615:25-109LDDWL
13Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1223713:22-99WLDDL
14Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1222810:23-138LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Levski SofiaLevski Sofia1225:532
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia1329:931
3LudogoretsLudogorets1224:929
4CSKA 1948CSKA 19481331:1428
5Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv1322:2022
6Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali1216:1818
7Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia139:913
8Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna1312:2313
9Dunav RuseDunav Ruse1315:2211
10Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa1210:2110
11Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv136:179
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia1315:259
13Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna1213:229
14Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia1210:238
Conference LeaguePromotionRelegation

About the Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets forecast

The forecasts for this First League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Cherno More Varna and Ludogorets in the First League table

The table shows a wide gap: Ludogorets are 3rd in the First League, while Cherno More Varna sit 13th, 20 points behind. League goal record so far: Cherno More Varna 13-22, Ludogorets 24-9. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.