Derby vs Birmingham Prediction
England · Regular Season - 7
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Derby vs Birmingham: the result in context
Birmingham beat Derby 2-1 in the Championship on 12 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Derby
Avg ratingAvg rating
1J. Widell Zetterström
23J. Ward
6S. Langås
44E. Cashin
18C. Taylor
8B. Clark
4D. Ozoh
16M. Fuseini
11S. Szmodics
19H. Meister
9C. Morris
1J. Beadle
26B. Osayi-Samuel
5P. Neumann
4C. Klarer
20A. Cochrane
24T. Iwata
14J. Solis
7C. Vicente
28J. Stansfield
17L. Millar
9A. PriskeDerby Substitutes
Birmingham Substitutes
Match Stats
DerbyBirmingham Team Comparison
DerbyBirminghamAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Derby- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Birmingham- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 6 meetings, all competitions
Derby2Wins · 34%2Wins · 33%Previous meetings
21/03/2026DerbyBirmingham26/12/2025BirminghamDerby30/01/2022DerbyBirmingham10/09/2021BirminghamDerby24/04/2021DerbyBirmingham29/12/2020BirminghamDerbyRecent Form
DerbyDerby
West Brom
West HamDerby
PortsmouthDerbyDerby
SwanseaDerby
Cardiff
CharltonDerbyDerby
Lincoln
RotherhamDerby
Burton AlbionDerby
Mansfield TownDerbyBirmingham
NorwichBirminghamBirmingham
WolvesBirmingham
Southampton
WrexhamBirminghamBirmingham
BrentfordBirmingham
Bristol City
Sheffield UtdBirminghamSwanseaBirminghamBirmingham
Barcelona
CreweBirminghamLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27:17 | +10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 23 | LLWWW |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32:15 | +17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:12 | +12 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20:12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18:16 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19:16 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19:17 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16:23 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11:18 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20:22 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 27:17 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 32:15 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 20:16 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 16:13 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 24:12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 20:12 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 18:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 19:16 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 16:15 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 19:20 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 12:15 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 19:17 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 11:18 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 20:22 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 17:25 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 10:21 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 10:25 | 5 |
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This match
About the Derby vs Birmingham forecast
The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Derby and Birmingham in the Championship table
In the Championship table, Birmingham are 7th and Derby 23rd, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: Derby 10-21, Birmingham 20-12. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Birmingham have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.