Birmingham vs Brentford Prediction

Birmingham
1-6
Finished
HT 1-3
Brentford
St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham·Tim Robinson, England 25/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.21
SignalSTRONGModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+0.3%
Value Analysis
61%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.78
SignalSOLIDModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+7.6%
Birmingham Rest
3 days
Brentford Rest
3 days

Birmingham vs Brentford: the result in context

Brentford beat Birmingham 6-1 in the League Cup on 25 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
21%4.38
X
18%3.84
2
61%1.78
Double Chance
1X
39%2.00
X2
79%1.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.63
No
49%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.92 + 1.53 = 2.45
Over 1.5
83%1.21
Over 2.5
47%1.69
Over 3.5
28%2.65
Under 1.5
17%4.15
Under 2.5
53%2.13
Under 3.5
72%1.44
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

6'C. WilsonAssist: Y. Yarmolyuk
26'J. SchusterFoul
28'D. GrayAssist: Paik Seung-Ho
35'A. Hickey
37'J. E. Solis RomeroFoul
40'N. CollinsAssist: J. Anthony
46'D. Ouattara INK. Schade out
48'Y. Yarmolyuk INM. Sangare out
55'B. Osayi-SamuelFoul
61'K. Fujimoto INJ. Stansfield out
61'L. Vazquez INA. Priske out
61'K. Lund INA. Cochrane out
62'C. Wilson INI. Thiago out
70'M. DamsgaardAssist: J. Anthony
71'R. Henry INK. Lewis-Potter out
71'V. Janelt INM. Kayode out
73'I. ThiagoAssist: J. Anthony
75'D. Gray INP. Neumann out
77'N. CollinsAssist: M. Sangare
83'Paik Seung-Ho INT. Iwata out

Lineups

Birmingham
4-2-3-1Coach: Chris Davies
Brentford
4-2-3-1Coach: Keith Andrews
Avg rating6.19
Avg rating7.22
Ryan Allsop5.921R. Allsop
Bright Osayi-Samuel5.526B. Osayi-Samuel
Dael Fry5.923D. Fry
Christoph KlarerC5.94C. Klarer
Kristoffer Lund5.925K. Lund
Jhon Solís5.614J. Solís
Seung Ho Paik6.98S. Ho Paik
Carlos Vicente5.97C. Vicente
Kanya Fujimoto6.327K. Fujimoto
Demarai Gray7.210D. Gray
Luis Vázquez6.332L. Vázquez
Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson6.512H. Rafn Valdimarsson
Aaron Hickey7.52A. Hickey
Jannik Schuster6.944J. Schuster
Nathan CollinsC9.922N. Collins
Rico Henry6.33R. Henry
Yehor Yarmoliuk6.96Y. Yarmoliuk
Vitaly Janelt7.227V. Janelt
Dango Ouattara6.311D. Ouattara
Mikkel Damsgaard8.224M. Damsgaard
Jaidon Anthony7.919J. Anthony
Callum Wilson7.213C. Wilson

Birmingham Substitutes

20Alex Cochrane61'for K. Lund6.2
9August Priske61'for L. Vazquez6.5
28Jay Stansfield61'for K. Fujimoto6.2
5Phil Neumann75'for D. Gray6.2
24Tomoki Iwata83'for Paik Seung-Ho6.6
1James Beadle
2Ethan Laird
16Patrick Roberts
33Marvin Ducksch

Brentford Substitutes

18Mamadou Sangare48'for Y. Yarmolyuk7.5
7Kevin Schade46'for D. Ouattara6.5
9Igor Thiago62'for C. Wilson73'7.5
33Michael Kayode71'for V. Janelt6.9
23Keane Lewis-Potter71'for R. Henry6.3
1Caoimhin Kelleher
20Kristoffer Ajer
8Mathias Jensen
14Fabio Carvalho

Match Stats

BirminghamBrentford
32%Ball Possession68%
4Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards1
8Total Shots18
2Shots on Goal8
4Shots off Goal7
2Shots Inside Box13
6Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots3
9Fouls12
0Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves1
238Total Passes520
155Passes Accurate435
65%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

BirminghamBirmingham
BrentfordBrentford
1686Elo Rating 1850
1.91Attack 1.72
2.45Defense 1.24
59%Hit Rate 14%
12.7Shots per Game 13.6
4.9Shots on Target 5.2
4.2Corners per Game 4.2
2.1Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

BirminghamBirmingham
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
BrentfordBrentford
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

BirminghamBirmingham1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
BrentfordBrentford0Wins · 0%
0.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2

Previous meetings

Championship06/04/2021
BrentfordBirmingham
00
Championship12/09/2020
BirminghamBrentford
10

Recent Form

BirminghamBirmingham
7W3D0L
22/08/2026
BirminghamBristol City
22
D
15/08/2026
Sheffield UtdBirmingham
00
D
08/08/2026
SwanseaBirmingham
01
W
31/07/2026
BirminghamBarcelona
3222
W
25/07/2026
CreweBirmingham
12
W
22/07/2026
Burton AlbionBirmingham
01
W
15/07/2026
Solihull MoorsBirmingham
03
W
10/07/2026
BirminghamHuddersfield
31
W
02/05/2026
PortsmouthBirmingham
11
D
25/04/2026
BirminghamBristol City
21
W
BrentfordBrentford
4W4D2L
22/08/2026
BrentfordTottenham
30
W
15/08/2026
BrentfordEintracht Frankfurt
70
W
08/08/2026
RennesBrentford
24
W
24/05/2026
LiverpoolBrentford
11
D
17/05/2026
BrentfordCrystal Palace
22
D
09/05/2026
Manchester CityBrentford
30
L
02/05/2026
BrentfordWest Ham
30
W
27/04/2026
Manchester UnitedBrentford
21
L
18/04/2026
BrentfordFulham
00
D
11/04/2026
BrentfordEverton
22
D

Referee Profile

Tim Robinson220 matches

4.14Cards per match
4.01Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tim Robinson4.14
Other referees3.78

4.14 cards a match, 0.36 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.78).

Cards come from 201 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Birmingham vs Brentford forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Birmingham have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Birmingham and Brentford have met only 2 times recently, averaging 0.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.