Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction

Excelsior
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
PSV Eindhoven
Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam·Marc Nagtegaal, Netherlands 15/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+1.6%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+7.6%
Excelsior Rest
8 days
PSV Eindhoven Rest
7 days

Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven: result, form and history

PSV Eindhoven beat Excelsior 2-1 in the Eredivisie on 15 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Excelsior had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for PSV Eindhoven.

PSV Eindhoven have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 7 previous meetings, which averaged 4.6 goals a game. Referee Marc Nagtegaal averages 2.56 cards a game, 0.70 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
15%5.80
X
18%4.68
2
67%1.44
Double Chance
1X
33%2.63
X2
85%1.12
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%1.44
No
33%2.61
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.45 + 2.04 = 3.49
Over 1.5
86%1.08
Over 2.5
77%1.33
Over 3.5
53%1.88
Under 1.5
14%7.00
Under 2.5
23%3.10
Under 3.5
47%1.90
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.5 + 5.6 = 10.1
Over 8.5
64%1.33
Over 9.5
53%1.59
Over 10.5
43%1.97
Under 8.5
36%2.97
Under 9.5
47%2.20
Under 10.5
57%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 1.6 = 3.1
Over 3.5
32%3.20
Over 4.5
9%-
Under 3.5
68%1.28
Under 4.5
91%-

Match Events

5'R. van Bommel
46'A. Sliti INN. Martens out
46'I. Silva Timas INO. Turay out
54'C. WidellAssist: I. Yegoian
56'R. PepiAssist: S. Dest
63'P. Wanner INK. Sano out
63'R. van Bommel INA. Bouhamdi out
68'D. Garden INN. Groen out
72'I. Perisic IND. Man out
74'L. Hartjes INA. Jahanbakhsh out
80'D. van Vianen INY. Finey out
80'S. Janssen INM. Dominguez out
84'R. Pepi INS. Mijnans out
88'Jan PlugFoul
89'S. Dest INK. Sildillia out

Lineups

Excelsior
4-3-3Coach: Ruben den Uil
PSV Eindhoven
4-3-3Coach: Peter Bosz
Avg rating6.61
Avg rating6.96
S. van Gassel7.31S. van Gassel
R. Meissen6.73R. Meissen
C. WidellC7.94C. Widell
J. Plug6.214J. Plug
S. Janssen6.315S. Janssen
I. Yegoian7.78I. Yegoian
L. Hartjes7.020L. Hartjes
D. van Vianen6.56D. van Vianen
A. Sliti6.67A. Sliti
D. Garden19D. Garden
I. Silva Timas6.521I. Silva Timas
M. Kovar7.032M. Kovar
S. Dest7.68S. Dest
R. Flamingo6.96R. Flamingo
A. Obispo6.74A. Obispo
Mauro JuniorC6.317M. Junior
G. Til6.920G. Til
J. Veerman8.023J. Veerman
P. Wanner6.710P. Wanner
I. Perisic6.95I. Perisic
R. Pepi7.09R. Pepi
R. van Bommel7.37R. van Bommel

Excelsior Substitutes

16C. Biai
5S. Henderikx
24G. Cairo
18V. Sulzbacher
23Y. Finey80'for D. van Vianen6.7
17N. Martens46'for A. Sliti5.6
9M. Dominguez80'for S. Janssen6.3
30A. Jahanbakhsh74'for L. Hartjes6.3
28N. Groen68'for D. Garden6.2
22O. Turay46'for I. Silva Timas5.9

PSV Eindhoven Substitutes

1N. Olij
41K. Ngom
25K. Sildillia89'for S. Dest
3Y. Gasiorowski
38F. Merien
21S. Mijnans84'for R. Pepi6.7
24K. Sano63'for P. Wanner6.6
27D. Man72'for I. Perisic6.3
19E. Bajraktarevic
37A. Bouhamdi63'for R. van Bommel7.5

Match Stats

ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
41%Ball Possession59%
1Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards0
5Total Shots20
2Shots on Goal8
2Shots off Goal7
3Shots Inside Box16
2Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots5
9Fouls3
1Offsides1
7Goalkeeper Saves1
426Total Passes603
340Passes Accurate527
80%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

ExcelsiorExcelsior
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
1645Elo Rating 1898
1.26Attack 0.98
0.88Defense 2.18
27%Hit Rate 37%
8.0Shots per Game 16.2
2.9Shots on Target 4.2
1.9Corners per Game 5.2
0.7Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.48 goals
📈BTTS Trend71% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

ExcelsiorExcelsior
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

ExcelsiorExcelsior0Wins · 0%
Draws114%
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven6Wins · 86%
4.6Avg Goals
71%Both teams scored5 of 7
86%3+ goals6 of 7

Previous meetings

Eredivisie10/01/2026
PSV EindhovenExcelsior
51
Eredivisie27/09/2025
ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
12
KNVB Beker14/01/2025
PSV EindhovenExcelsior
5343
Eredivisie02/04/2024
ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
02
Eredivisie13/01/2024
PSV EindhovenExcelsior
31
Eredivisie08/04/2023
PSV EindhovenExcelsior
40
Eredivisie28/08/2022
ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
16

Recent Form

ExcelsiorExcelsior
9W1D0L
07/08/2026
CambuurExcelsior
04
W
01/08/2026
De GraafschapExcelsior
15
W
24/07/2026
HeraclesExcelsior
35
W
18/07/2026
NAC BredaExcelsior
13
W
11/07/2026
DordrechtExcelsior
02
W
04/07/2026
ExcelsiorCambuur
32
W
17/05/2026
Sparta RotterdamExcelsior
23
W
10/05/2026
ExcelsiorFC Volendam
11
D
02/05/2026
GroningenExcelsior
23
W
26/04/2026
ExcelsiorUtrecht
50
W
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
5W3D2L
08/08/2026
PSV EindhovenFortuna Sittard
22
D
02/08/2026
PSV EindhovenAZ Alkmaar
04
L
28/07/2026
PSV EindhovenFC Eindhoven
30
W
25/07/2026
PSV EindhovenVillarreal
13
L
18/07/2026
PSV EindhovenUnion St. Gilloise
73
W
11/07/2026
PSV EindhovenRaków Częstochowa
22
D
17/05/2026
PSV EindhovenTwente
51
W
10/05/2026
GO Ahead EaglesPSV Eindhoven
14
W
02/05/2026
AjaxPSV Eindhoven
22
D
23/04/2026
PSV EindhovenPEC Zwolle
61
W

Referee Profile

Marc Nagtegaal175 matches

2.56Cards per match
2.51Yellow cards per match
0.05Red cards per match
20.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marc Nagtegaal2.56
Other referees3.26

2.56 cards a match, 0.70 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.26).

Cards come from 164 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eredivisie 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1174033:12+2125DDWWW
2AjaxAjax1173130:13+1724WWWDD
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1172235:13+2223WDLWL
4TwenteTwente1172228:10+1823WWLDW
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1162320:13+720LLDLW
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1154218:18019DWDDW
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1153319:13+618WWWLW
8GroningenGroningen1143426:24+215LDLWW
9CambuurCambuur1143423:22+115WWDWD
10GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1135323:27-414LWLDD
11Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1133520:26-612WLWDL
12UtrechtUtrecht1133519:31-1212LDWWL
13NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1125417:19-211LDDDD
14PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1132612:23-1111WDWLL
15ExcelsiorExcelsior1132616:28-1211LLLLD
16TelstarTelstar1123616:23-79WLLDL
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1113713:24-116LLWDD
18Willem IIWillem II1102910:39-292LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FeyenoordFeyenoord1133:1225
2AjaxAjax1130:1324
3PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven1135:1323
4TwenteTwente1128:1023
5AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar1120:1320
6Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard1118:1819
7HeerenveenHeerenveen1119:1318
8GroningenGroningen1126:2415
9CambuurCambuur1123:2215
10GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles1123:2714
11Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam1120:2612
12UtrechtUtrecht1119:3112
13NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen1117:1911
14PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle1112:2311
15ExcelsiorExcelsior1116:2811
16TelstarTelstar1116:239
17ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag1113:246
18Willem IIWillem II1110:392
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About the Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie table

The table shows a wide gap: PSV Eindhoven are 3rd in the Eredivisie, while Excelsior sit 15th, 12 points behind. League goal record so far: Excelsior 16-28, PSV Eindhoven 35-13. The full standings are on the Eredivisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

PSV Eindhoven have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.