FC Thun vs Lech Poznan Prediction
World · Play-offsCupKnockout
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.44
SignalGOODModel53%SurpriseHighGap+4.0%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.57
SignalGOODModel46%SurpriseHighGap+11.0%
FC Thun Rest
7 days
Lech Poznan Rest
7 days
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan: the result in context
FC Thun and Lech Poznan drew 2-2 in the UEFA Europa League on 27 Aug 2026. Lech Poznan had gone in with the better form, having won 5 of their previous five against 2 for FC Thun.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
118%2.71
X27%3.88
255%2.30
Double Chance
1X45%1.59
X282%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes64%1.46
No36%2.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.06 + 2.02 = 3.08
Over 1.580%1.15
Over 2.556%1.53
Over 3.531%2.35
Under 1.520%5.00
Under 2.544%2.40
Under 3.569%1.57
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4.7 = 10.1
Over 8.561%1.54
Over 9.551%1.94
Over 10.536%2.46
Under 8.539%2.25
Under 9.549%1.79
Under 10.564%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.3 = 5
Over 3.560%1.59
Over 4.545%2.20
Under 3.540%2.12
Under 4.555%1.54
Match Events
17'R. GumnyAssist: L. Palma
22'S. LengenAssist: F. Dursun
26'D. Hakans INP. Walemark out
32'N. MaierRoughing
40'G. BerggrenTripping
43'F. DursunAssist: N. Maier
46'T. Strannegard INF. Fehr out
46'F. Saiz INJ. Roth out
46'A. Kozubal INR. Murawski out
53'P. WalemarkDiving
56'N. Maier INA. Ilic out
61'F. Dursun INR. Braschi out
67'A. Sayyadmanesh INP. Rodriguez out
68'P. WalemarkAssist: M. Lis
73'S. Lengen INN. Reichmuth out
75'L. PassavantHolding
80'W. Monka INT. Yegbe out
80'Y. Agnero INF. Jagiello out
90+1'M. SkrzypczakRoughing
Lineups
FC ThunLech Poznan
4-2-3-1Coach: Niels Frederiksen
25T. Spycher
37L. Dähler
54L. Passavant
23M. Bürki
16T. Strannegård
30N. Maier
8F. Saiz
13N. Zoukit
21D. Derbaci
80S. Lengen
9F. Dursun
1M. Lis
20R. Gumny
27W. Mońka
72M. Skrzypczak
15M. Gurgul
43A. Kozubal
4G. Berggren
17A. Sayyadmanesh
77L. Palma
11D. Håkans
7Y. AgneroFC Thun Substitutes
47Fabio Fehr46'for T. Strannegard
16Justin Roth46'replaced by F. Saiz
52Adam Ilic56'for N. Maier
21Riccardo Braschi61'for F. Dursun
70Nils Reichmuth73'for S. Lengen
1Niklas Steffen
22Dario Walti
5Nicolas Bürgy
19Jan Bamert
58Amir Maaroufi
96Brighton Labeau
Lech Poznan Substitutes
10Patrik Wålemark26'for D. Hakans53'68'
22Radosław Murawski46'for A. Kozubal
21Pablo Rodríguez67'for A. Sayyadmanesh
59Terry Yegbe80'for W. Monka
24Filip Jagiełło80'for Y. Agnero
31Wiktor Obremski
35Mateusz Pruchniewski
2Joel Pereira
53Karol Delikat
56Wojciech Szymczak
Match Stats
FC ThunLech Poznan 40%Ball Possession60%
6Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards3
3Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal7
3Blocked Shots2
22Fouls12
1Offsides1
Team Comparison
FC ThunLech Poznan1536Elo Rating 1742
1.02Attack 1.65
1.04Defense 1.58
0%Hit Rate 39%
12.6Shots per Game 12.8
5.0Shots on Target 5.1
3.8Corners per Game 4.3
2.2Cards per Game 1.3
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.08 goals
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
Game State Tendencies
FC Thun- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Lech Poznan- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)
Head to Head
1 previous meeting, all competitions
FC Thun0Wins · 0%Draws00%
Lech Poznan1Wins · 100%
1Wins · 100%7.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1
Previous meetings
Recent Form
FC Thun3W1D6L
20/08/2026Lech PoznanFC Thun
FC Basel 1893FC ThunFC Thun
Vikingur ReykjavikFC Thun
BSC Young Boys
Dinamo ZagrebFC Thun
FC LuzernFC ThunFC ThunDinamo Zagreb
Lech PoznanFC Thun70
L16/08/2026
Saxon SportsFC Thun
Saxon SportsFC Thun06
W13/08/2026Vikingur ReykjavikFC Thun
09/08/2026Vikingur ReykjavikFC Thun32
LFC Basel 1893FC Thun42
L06/08/2026FC ThunVikingur Reykjavik30
W01/08/2026FC ThunBSC Young Boys06
L28/07/2026Dinamo ZagrebFC Thun3222
L25/07/2026FC LuzernFC Thun13
W21/07/2026FC ThunDinamo Zagreb11
D11/07/2026FC Thun
Waldhof Mannheim
FC ThunWaldhof Mannheim12
LLech Poznan8W1D1L
20/08/2026Lech PoznanFC ThunLech Poznan
Piast GliwiceLech Poznan
KI Klaksvik
Wieczysta KrakówLech PoznanLech Poznan
AarhusLech Poznan
Cracovia KrakowAarhusLech Poznan
Lech PoznanFC Thun70
W14/08/2026KI KlaksvikLech Poznan
09/08/2026KI KlaksvikLech Poznan05
WLech PoznanPiast Gliwice30
W06/08/2026Lech PoznanKI Klaksvik10
W01/08/2026Wieczysta KrakówLech Poznan12
W29/07/2026Lech PoznanAarhus3043
L25/07/2026Lech PoznanCracovia Krakow00
D21/07/2026AarhusLech Poznan14
W16/07/2026Lech Poznan
Gornik Zabrze
Lech PoznanGornik Zabrze31
W11/07/2026Lech Poznan
Bohemians 1905
Lech PoznanBohemians 190540
WReferee Profile
4.86Cards per match
4.60Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.86 cards a match, 0.28 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.58).
Cards come from 194 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsBracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Kairat Almaty
Mjallby AIF
Trabzonspor
Lillestrom
Ararat-Armenia
Kauno Žalgiris
St. Truiden
FK Crvena Zvezda
Plzen
OFIAarhus
Larne
Saburtalo
Shamrock Rovers
Egnatia RrogozhinëGornik Zabrze
KuPS
Universitatea Craiova
Jagiellonia
RangersLech PoznanKI Klaksvik
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Omonia Nicosia
Red Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur Reykjavik
Heart Of Midlothian
Tromso
Hradec Králové
PAOK
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hammarby FF
Anderlecht
FC ST. Gallen
Benfica
Twente
Beşiktaş
FC Midtjylland
PafosKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLarneSaburtaloShamrock RoversEgnatia RrogozhinëGornik ZabrzeKuPSUniversitatea CraiovaJagielloniaRangersLech PoznanKI KlaksvikLincoln Red Imps FCOmonia NicosiaRed Bull SalzburgFC ThunVikingur ReykjavikHeart Of MidlothianKairat AlmatyMjallby AIFTrabzonsporLillestromArarat-ArmeniaKauno ŽalgirisSt. TruidenFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzenOFIAarhusLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | +8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:1 | +7 | 7 | WDW |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:3 | +6 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 7 | DWW |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 | WWL |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | LWW |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | +1 | 5 | DWD |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | +5 | 4 | WDL |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | DLW |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | +2 | 4 | LDW |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 | LWD |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 4 | WLD |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:8 | -3 | 4 | WDL |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 | DLW |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:3 | +1 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 | LWL |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:6 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:9 | -7 | 1 | LDL |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:11 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Europa League
Explore more predictions
This match
More UEFA Europa League matches
About the FC Thun vs Lech Poznan forecast
As a knockout tie in the UEFA Europa League, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About UEFA Europa League
More UEFA Europa League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Europa League Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
FC Thun and Lech Poznan have met only 1 time recently, with 7.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.