Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Prediction

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh 10/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
64%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.45
SignalSOLIDModel67%SurpriseMediumGap-5.1%
Heart Of Midlothian Rest
20 days
ST Mirren Rest
21 days

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren: result, form and history

Heart Of Midlothian beat ST Mirren 5-0 in the Premiership on 10 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Heart Of Midlothian had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for ST Mirren.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.45
X
21%4.72
2
15%6.05
Double Chance
1X
85%1.11
X2
36%2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.65
No
43%2.13
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.06 + 0.99 = 3.05
Over 1.5
82%1.14
Over 2.5
62%1.50
Over 3.5
41%2.30
Under 1.5
18%5.00
Under 2.5
38%2.50
Under 3.5
59%1.61
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.1 + 3.1 = 10.2
Over 8.5
64%1.27
Over 9.5
52%1.48
Over 10.5
43%1.80
Under 8.5
36%3.30
Under 9.5
48%2.46
Under 10.5
57%1.91
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.6 = 4.4
Over 3.5
64%1.62
Over 4.5
44%2.20
Under 3.5
36%2.20
Under 4.5
56%1.62

Match Events

20'Laurent mendy
23'Calvin MillerFoul
30'Alexander GogićFoul
32'Calvin Miller(Penalty)
45'Chris MochrieFoul
45'Fraser Taylor INJake Young out
45'Chris Mochrie INLuke Thomas out
45'Ryan Carr INLiam Donnelly out
50'Calvin Miller(Penalty)
54'Claudio Rafael Soares BragaAssist: Calvin Miller
56'Calvin Miller INSabah Kerjota out
56'Eduardo Ageu INOisin McEntee out
65'Severin Sabri Guendouz
65'Wouter VranckenDissent
67'Ismeal Kabia INEseosa Sule out
73'James wilson INJerome Williams out
74'Claudio Rafael Soares Braga INSeverin Sabri Guendouz out
80'Josh McpakeAssist: Malachi Walcott
82'Josh Mcpake INStuart Findlay out
82'Calvin Ramsay INMarcus Fraser out
90+1'Killian PhillipsFoul

Lineups

Heart Of Midlothian
4-2-3-1Coach: W. Vrancken
ST Mirren
4-2-3-1Coach: Craig McLeish
Avg rating7.28
Avg rating5.74
B. Reus6.81B. Reus
J. Altena8.023J. Altena
M. Fagan-Walcott8.164M. Fagan-Walcott
J. McCart7.35J. McCart
H. Milne7.318H. Milne
Ageu7.28Ageu
L. Mendy7.978L. Mendy
C. Miller7.77C. Miller
Cláudio Braga8.210C. Braga
J. McPake8.215J. McPake
J. Wilson6.421J. Wilson
J. Chapman5.61J. Chapman
C. Ramsay5.047C. Ramsay
A. Gogić5.213A. Gogić
Henry Fieldson5.153H. Fieldson
D. John5.93D. John
R. Carr5.88R. Carr
P. Nsio5.648P. Nsio
C. Mochrie5.523C. Mochrie
F. Taylor6.030F. Taylor
Ismeal Kabia6.119I. Kabia
K. Phillips6.188K. Phillips

Heart Of Midlothian Substitutes

30R. Fulton
6O. McEntee56'for Eduardo Ageu6.9
2C. Borchgrevink
17S. Findlay82'for Josh Mcpake7.1
22T. Magnússon
29S. Kerjota56'for Calvin Miller6.6
74R. Mato
19S. Guendouz65'74'for Claudio Rafael Soares Braga6.3
9J. Williams73'for James wilson6.5

ST Mirren Substitutes

22M. Fraser82'for Calvin Ramsay5.5
16L. Thomas45'for Chris Mochrie6.3
4L. Donnelly45'for Ryan Carr5.9
6Louis Jackson
9Eseosa Sule67'for Ismeal Kabia6.3
35Grant Tamosevicius
37C. McEvoy
10Samu
20J. Young45'for Fraser Taylor5.9

Match Stats

Heart Of MidlothianST Mirren
49%Ball Possession51%
6Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards3
18Total Shots8
6Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal5
14Shots Inside Box4
4Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots2
16Fouls18
3Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves1
418Total Passes438
325Passes Accurate339
17Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
ST MirrenST Mirren
1672Elo Rating 1490
1.78Attack 0.41
0.44Defense 0.01
19%Hit Rate 0%
17.6Shots per Game 11.6
5.2Shots on Target 3.3
4.9Corners per Game 3.7
2.1Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+182 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.05 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
ST MirrenST Mirren
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.4 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian4Wins · 40%
Draws440%
ST MirrenST Mirren2Wins · 20%
2.9Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Premiership03/02/2026
ST MirrenHeart Of Midlothian
10
Premiership14/01/2026
Heart Of MidlothianST Mirren
20
Premiership29/10/2025
ST MirrenHeart Of Midlothian
22
League Cup16/08/2025
ST MirrenHeart Of Midlothian
5141
Premiership26/02/2025
Heart Of MidlothianST Mirren
31
FA Cup10/02/2025
ST MirrenHeart Of Midlothian
2141
Premiership19/10/2024
Heart Of MidlothianST Mirren
40
Premiership21/09/2024
ST MirrenHeart Of Midlothian
21
Premiership15/05/2024
ST MirrenHeart Of Midlothian
22
Premiership06/04/2024
ST MirrenHeart Of Midlothian
12

League Table

Premiership 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CelticCeltic980123:5+1824WWLWW
2RangersRangers962113:7+620DWWWW
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian951320:15+516LWDLW
4DundeeDundee942313:10+314DWWLD
5ST JohnstoneST Johnstone933311:11012DWDLW
6Dundee UtdDundee Utd933311:12-112DWWDL
7AberdeenAberdeen932410:10011WLDWD
8ST MirrenST Mirren93159:17-810LLLLL
9FalkirkFalkirk92349:12-39WLDWD
10MotherwellMotherwell922511:16-58LLLLL
11KilmarnockKilmarnock922510:20-108WLDWD
12HibernianHibernian92169:14-57LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1CelticCeltic923:524
2RangersRangers913:720
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian920:1516
4DundeeDundee913:1014
5ST JohnstoneST Johnstone911:1112
6Dundee UtdDundee Utd911:1212
7AberdeenAberdeen910:1011
8ST MirrenST Mirren99:1710
9FalkirkFalkirk99:129
10MotherwellMotherwell911:168
11KilmarnockKilmarnock910:208
12HibernianHibernian99:147
PromotionRelegation

About the Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren in the Premiership table

In the Premiership table, Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd and ST Mirren 8th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Heart Of Midlothian 20-15, ST Mirren 9-17. The full standings are on the Premiership Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.