Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction

Olympiastadion, Berlin·Tobias Stieler 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
65%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.54
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-0.2%
Hertha BSC Rest
9 days
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Rest
9 days

Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth: the result in context

Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 in the 2. Bundesliga on 11 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Hertha BSC had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

Hertha BSC have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 3.4 goals a game. SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to win more corners, 7.1 a game to 5.0 for Hertha BSC.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.54
X
19%4.60
2
19%5.00
Double Chance
1X
81%1.16
X2
38%2.39
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.42
No
37%2.65
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.96 + 1.08 = 3.04
Over 1.5
85%1.10
Over 2.5
66%1.36
Over 3.5
45%1.89
Under 1.5
15%6.50
Under 2.5
34%3.05
Under 3.5
55%1.88
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.1 = 10.1
Over 8.5
70%1.32
Over 9.5
58%1.64
Over 10.5
47%1.98
Under 8.5
30%3.00
Under 9.5
42%2.20
Under 10.5
53%1.77
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.3 = 4.5
Over 3.5
65%-
Over 4.5
46%-
Under 3.5
35%-
Under 4.5
54%-

Match Events

60'Linus Jasper GechterFoul
62'Goal cancelledOmar Sillah
64'Jan Luca Schuler INGustaf Nilsson out
64'Oluwaseun Adewumi INFarid Alfa-Ruprecht out
65'Mads Valentin PedersenAssist: Josip Brekalo
66'Shinta Karl Appelkamp INFaton Ademi out
72'Julian EitschbergerFoul
75'Sacha Banse INJordan Siebatcheu out
76'Mads Valentin Pedersen INDeyovaisio Zeefuik out
80'Paul SeguinAssist: Josip Brekalo
81'Lukas Reich INAaron Keller out
81'Omar Sillah INDennis Srbeny out
81'Ole Pohlmann INOlgherto Balliu out
87'Kevin Sessa INPascal Klemens out
87'Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson INSoufian gouram out
90'Jannis HeuerAssist: Aaron Keller

Lineups

Hertha BSC
4-2-3-1Coach: S. Leitl
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4-2-3-1Coach: H. Vogel
Avg rating6.82
Avg rating6.52
M. Gersbeck7.235M. Gersbeck
J. Eitschberger6.82J. Eitschberger
L. Gechter6.644L. Gechter
N. Kolbe6.927N. Kolbe
M. Pedersen7.122M. Pedersen
P. Seguin8.130P. Seguin
K. Sessa6.58K. Sessa
O. Adewumi6.719O. Adewumi
J. Þorsteinsson6.023J. Þorsteinsson
J. Brekalo8.37J. Brekalo
L. Schuler6.418L. Schuler
Florian Hellstern8.11F. Hellstern
Lukas Reich6.42L. Reich
J. Heuer7.322J. Heuer
Hendry Aron Blank6.634H. Aron Blank
J. Dehm6.823J. Dehm
S. Bansé6.96S. Bansé
P. Will6.513P. Will
F. Klaus6.730F. Klaus
S. Appelkamp5.28S. Appelkamp
Ole Pohlmann6.010O. Pohlmann
O. Sillah6.542O. Sillah

Hertha BSC Substitutes

20Farid Alfa-Ruprecht64'for Oluwaseun Adewumi6.7
43T. Goller
33S. Gouram87'for Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson6.2
17S. Grønning
41P. Klemens87'for Kevin Sessa6.4
21Boris Manuzah Lum
9G. Nilsson64'for Jan Luca Schuler7.0
47Selim Telib
42D. Zeefuik76'for Mads Valentin Pedersen6.3

SpVgg Greuther Fürth Substitutes

37F. Ademi66'for Shinta Karl Appelkamp6.2
28D. Arifi
9J. Siebatcheu75'for Sacha Banse6.4
11A. Keller81'for Lukas Reich6.3
29K. Keresztes
39C. Ortag
7D. Srbeny81'for Omar Sillah6.3
21M. Wallentowitz
45Olgherto Balliu81'for Ole Pohlmann6.1

Match Stats

Hertha BSCSpVgg Greuther Fürth
42%Ball Possession58%
5Corner Kicks12
2Yellow Cards0
19Total Shots17
10Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal9
12Shots Inside Box10
7Shots Outside Box7
2Blocked Shots3
10Fouls8
1Offsides4
4Goalkeeper Saves8
339Total Passes450
261Passes Accurate370
77%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

Hertha BSCHertha BSC
SpVgg Greuther FürthSpVgg Greuther Fürth
1742Elo Rating 1584
1.41Attack 1.13
2.50Defense 2.04
77%Hit Rate 27%
18.6Shots per Game 13.9
7.1Shots on Target 4.4
5.0Corners per Game 7.1
1.7Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+157 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.04 goals
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Hertha BSCHertha BSC
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.2 in first half)
SpVgg Greuther FürthSpVgg Greuther Fürth
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

Hertha BSCHertha BSC5Wins · 63%
Draws112%
SpVgg Greuther FürthSpVgg Greuther Fürth2Wins · 25%
3.4Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored6 of 8
88%3+ goals7 of 8

Previous meetings

2. Bundesliga10/05/2026
Hertha BSCSpVgg Greuther Fürth
21
2. Bundesliga12/12/2025
SpVgg Greuther FürthHertha BSC
33
2. Bundesliga04/05/2025
Hertha BSCSpVgg Greuther Fürth
10
2. Bundesliga07/12/2024
SpVgg Greuther FürthHertha BSC
21
2. Bundesliga11/02/2024
SpVgg Greuther FurthHertha Berlin
12
2. Bundesliga26/08/2023
Hertha BerlinSpVgg Greuther Furth
50
Bundesliga12/02/2022
SpVgg Greuther FurthHertha Berlin
21
Bundesliga17/09/2021
Hertha BerlinSpVgg Greuther Furth
21

Recent Form

Hertha BSCHertha BSC
8W2D0L
02/10/2026
FC AugsburgHertha BSC
22
D
29/09/2026
Hertha ZehlendorfHertha BSC
13
W
19/09/2026
Dynamo DresdenHertha BSC
12
W
13/09/2026
VfL OsnabrückHertha BSC
13
W
06/09/2026
Hertha BSC1. FC Magdeburg
21
W
28/08/2026
Eintracht BraunschweigHertha BSC
35
W
22/08/2026
FC SaarbrückenHertha BSC
2141
W
15/08/2026
Hertha BSC1. FC Heidenheim
41
W
07/08/2026
VfL BochumHertha BSC
01
W
31/07/2026
1. FC KölnHertha BSC
22
D
SpVgg Greuther FürthSpVgg Greuther Fürth
3W3D4L
01/10/2026
VfB StuttgartSpVgg Greuther Fürth
50
L
18/09/2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth1. FC Magdeburg
11
D
12/09/2026
VfL BochumSpVgg Greuther Fürth
11
D
06/09/2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth1. FC Heidenheim
01
L
29/08/2026
Energie CottbusSpVgg Greuther Fürth
34
W
23/08/2026
SpVgg Greuther FürthVfL Bochum
12
L
15/08/2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth1. FC Nürnberg
24
L
09/08/2026
FC St. PauliSpVgg Greuther Fürth
11
D
18/07/2026
FC ZurichSpVgg Greuther Fürth
23
W
11/07/2026
Eintracht BambergSpVgg Greuther Fürth
13
W

Referee Profile

Tobias Stieler222 matches

3.89Cards per match
3.73Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tobias Stieler3.85
Other referees4.30

3.85 cards a match, 0.45 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.30).

Cards come from 211 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Hertha BSCHertha BSC981020:8+1225WDWWW
21. FC Nürnberg1. FC Nürnberg953121:12+918LDDWW
31. FC Kaiserslautern1. FC Kaiserslautern95319:4+518WWDWL
4VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg944123:14+916DWDWL
51. FC Magdeburg1. FC Magdeburg951320:12+816WLWDW
61. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim943216:16015DLDDW
7FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli926111:9+212DDWDW
8VfL OsnabrückVfL Osnabrück932414:15-111WLDDL
9Arminia BielefeldArminia Bielefeld932413:14-111LWWDL
10Eintracht BraunschweigEintracht Braunschweig931515:15010WLWLD
11Energie CottbusEnergie Cottbus924317:18-110DDLDW
12SpVgg Greuther FürthSpVgg Greuther Fürth923412:16-49LWLDD
13Holstein KielHolstein Kiel915310:11-18WDLDL
14VfL BochumVfL Bochum92256:10-48DLLLD
15Dynamo DresdenDynamo Dresden922511:18-78LWDLD
16Hannover 96Hannover 9692258:15-78LDLWL
17Karlsruher SCKarlsruher SC922511:20-98LWLLL
18SV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 9892258:18-108DLWLW
PromotionRelegation

About the Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth forecast

The forecasts for this 2. Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in the 2. Bundesliga table

In the 2. Bundesliga table, Hertha BSC are 1st and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12th, 16 points apart. League goal record so far: Hertha BSC 20-8, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12-16. The full standings are on the 2. Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.