Independiente del Valle vs Aucas Prediction

Estadio Banco De Guayaquil, Quito·Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano 10/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.47
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap-1.7%
Independiente del Valle Rest
15 days
Aucas Rest
21 days

Independiente del Valle vs Aucas: result, form and history

Independiente del Valle beat Aucas 2-1 in the Liga Pro on 10 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente del Valle had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Aucas.

Independiente del Valle have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game. Independiente del Valle tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 3.4 for Aucas.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.47
X
22%3.98
2
13%6.00
Double Chance
1X
87%1.10
X2
36%2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.83
No
50%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.01 + 0.75 = 2.76
Over 1.5
75%1.22
Over 2.5
53%1.74
Over 3.5
33%2.79
Under 1.5
25%3.70
Under 2.5
47%2.02
Under 3.5
67%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

33'Piero Andrés Guzmán ArroboAssist: Ayrton Preciado
34'Junior SornozaArgument
39'Junior Sornoza(Penalty missed)
56'Hugo Quintana
59'Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez INSteven Daniel Góngora Palacios out
59'Carlos González INDjorkaeff Reascos out
65'Hugo QuintanaFoul
67'Junior Sornoza INRonald Briones out
68'Luis Arroyo INMaverick Vera out
68'Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado INB. Oyola out
74'Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
79'Andres Mena INCristhoper Zambrano out
79'Ayrton Preciado INAlexander Bolaños out
86'Matias Mijail Perello INEdwin Quintero out
86'Hugo Quintana INJhegson Mendez Carabali out
90+5'Santiago MoralesFoul

Lineups

Independiente del Valle
4-1-4-1Coach: Joaquín Papa
Aucas
5-4-1Coach: N. Araujo
Avg rating6.54
Avg rating6.46
A. Quintana6.11A. Quintana
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla6.313D. Alejandro Romero Padilla
M. Carabajal6.814M. Carabajal
R. Schunke6.75R. Schunke
L. Loor6.719L. Loor
J. Alcívar6.56J. Alcívar
M. Perelló6.311M. Perelló
H. Quintana7.528H. Quintana
J. Sornoza5.910J. Sornoza
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez6.431E. Ivan Pata Rodríguez
C. González6.99C. González
Hamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez6.213H. Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez
R. Quiñónez6.528R. Quiñónez
A. Zova6.737A. Zova
S. Tapiero6.014S. Tapiero
S. Morales6.42S. Morales
B. Carabalí6.331B. Carabalí
P. Guzmán7.421P. Guzmán
A. Spina6.16A. Spina
Andrés David Mena Montenegro6.418A. David Mena Montenegro
A. Preciado7.710A. Preciado
Luis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza6.429L. Aldair Arroyo Cabeza

Independiente del Valle Substitutes

15G. Cortéz
18Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios59'replaced by Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez74'
32J. Méndez86'for Hugo Quintana5.9
8Y. Ochoa
70M. Peralta
56E. Quintero86'for Matias Mijail Perello6.3
57H. Quintero
99D. Reasco59'for Carlos González6.5
33Andy René Velasco García
23Juan Viacava
52Y. Vásquez
16R. Briones67'for Junior Sornoza6.3

Aucas Substitutes

17C. Zambrano79'for Andres Mena6.3
57M. Vera68'for Luis Arroyo6.0
5Thiago
30B. Oyola68'for Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado5.9
9R. Monti Azpiazu
1I. Chaves
4M. Burdisso
11A. Bolaños79'for Ayrton Preciado6.6
7J. Andrade

Match Stats

Independiente del ValleAucas
59%Ball Possession41%
5Corner Kicks0
2Yellow Cards2
7Total Shots3
4Shots on Goal1
3Shots off Goal2
0Blocked Shots0
0Offsides0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
AucasAucas
1793Elo Rating 1570
0.86Attack 0.83
2.44Defense 1.74
36%Hit Rate 0%
11.3Shots per Game 7.7
4.3Shots on Target 1.9
5.9Corners per Game 3.4
1.5Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+223 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
AucasAucas
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle6Wins · 60%
Draws220%
AucasAucas2Wins · 20%
2.9Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Liga Pro16/07/2026
AucasIndependiente del Valle
03
Liga Pro14/03/2026
Independiente del ValleAucas
22
Liga Pro19/07/2025
Independiente del ValleAucas
21
Liga Pro28/03/2025
AucasIndependiente del Valle
12
Liga Pro01/09/2024
AucasIndependiente del Valle
02
Liga Pro25/03/2024
Independiente del ValleAucas
11
Liga Pro12/11/2023
AucasIndependiente del Valle
20
Liga Pro03/06/2023
Independiente del ValleAucas
20
Supercopa de Ecuador11/02/2023
Independiente del ValleAucas
30
Liga Pro24/07/2022
AucasIndependiente del Valle
50

Recent Form

AucasAucas
4W3D3L
19/09/2026
AucasMacara
12
L
12/09/2026
Manta FCAucas
00
D
07/09/2026
AucasBarcelona SC
11
D
03/09/2026
Universidad CatolicaAucas
11
D
30/08/2026
AucasLibertad
10
W
27/08/2026
LDU de QuitoAucas
10
L
23/08/2026
Delfin SCAucas
01
W
17/08/2026
AucasLDU de Quito
01
L
12/08/2026
La UniónAucas
3141
W
08/08/2026
AucasLeones del Norte
30
W

Referee Profile

Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano73 matches

5.03Cards per match
4.66Yellow cards per match
0.37Red cards per match
22.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano5.03
Other referees5.05

5.03 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 38 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga Pro 2026

Liga Pro: Regular season

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle30242473:33+4074DLWWW
2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica30149751:27+2451DWLLW
3MacaraMacara30156941:33+851WWWWW
4AucasAucas30148833:28+550LDLLD
5LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito301371031:24+746LDWWD
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC301111832:25+744WLLDD
7LibertadLibertad301181133:34-141LWWWL
8Leones del NorteLeones del Norte301091131:32-139WLLDL
9Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC301091133:36-339WLWDW
10EmelecEmelec301091125:34-939LWLLL
11Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC309111035:38-338DLDLD
12Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca301061425:37-1236WWDDD
13Orense SCOrense SC30961536:47-1133WDDLL
14Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario301021828:42-1432LLDWL
15Delfin SCDelfin SC30771619:31-1228LWWDD
16Manta FCManta FC30561917:42-2521LLWWD
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle3073:3374
2Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3051:2751
3MacaraMacara3041:3351
4AucasAucas3033:2850
5LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito3031:2446
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3032:2544
7LibertadLibertad3033:3441
8Leones del NorteLeones del Norte3031:3239
9Guayaquil City FCGuayaquil City FC3033:3639
10EmelecEmelec3025:3439
11Mushuc Runa SCMushuc Runa SC3035:3838
12Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca3025:3736
13Orense SCOrense SC3036:4733
14Tecnico UniversitarioTecnico Universitario3028:4232
15Delfin SCDelfin SC3019:3128
16Manta FCManta FC3017:4221

Liga Pro: Championship Group

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle33253575:35+4078DLWWW
2MacaraMacara34196947:35+1263WWWWW
3Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica341411953:31+2253DWLLW
4LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito341581137:29+853LDWWD
5AucasAucas341491136:37-151LDLLD
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC331212938:28+1048WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle3375:3578
2MacaraMacara3447:3563
3Universidad CatolicaUniversidad Catolica3453:3153
4LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito3437:2953
5AucasAucas3436:3751
6Barcelona SCBarcelona SC3338:2848
PromotionRelegation

About the Independiente del Valle vs Aucas forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Independiente del Valle and Aucas in the Liga Pro table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Independiente del Valle are 1st in the Liga Pro, 24 points ahead of Aucas in 4th. League goal record so far: Independiente del Valle 73-33, Aucas 33-28. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.