Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction
Ecuador · Regular Season - 28
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.29
SignalHIGHModel62%SurpriseMediumGap-1.7%
Barcelona SC Rest
4 days
Independiente del Valle Rest
4 days
Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle: the result in context
Barcelona SC beat Independiente del Valle 2-1 in the Liga Pro on 3 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Independiente del Valle had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Barcelona SC.
Independiente del Valle have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
116%3.35
X29%3.30
255%2.08
Double Chance
1X45%1.66
X285%1.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%1.75
No49%1.93
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.08 + 1.47 = 2.55
Over 1.572%1.30
Over 2.545%1.97
Over 3.525%3.40
Under 1.528%3.15
Under 2.555%1.78
Under 3.575%1.27
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
27'Damián DíazArgument
27'Mateo CarabajalArgument
37'Penalty confirmedAron Rodríguez
40'Carlos González(Penalty)
44'Jefferson IntriagoFoul
45'Carlos González INDjorkaeff Reascos out
46'Jefferson WilaAssist: Tomás Rodríguez
50'Pablo Marcelo TrobbianiAbusive Language
60'José ContrerasArgument
63'Hugo Quintana INJuan Viacava out
70'Joaquín Papa Monestier
73'William·Vargas INByron Castillo out
75'Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez INMatias Mijail Perello out
75'Junior Sornoza INRonald Briones out
79'Luis Cano INErick Mendoza out
79'Jefferson Intriago INJhonny Quinonez out
88'Damián Díaz INDarío Benedetto out
89'Jefferson Wila INYaxi Johan García Tenorio out
90+3'Jhegson Mendez Carabali INYouri Ochoa out
90+10'Darío BenedettoAssist: Erick Mendoza
Lineups
Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle
5-3-2Coach: Joaquín PapaAvg ratingAvg rating
1J. Contreras
27W. Vargas
33J. Báez
4G. Vallecilla
15J. Perlaza
35J. Intriago
32M. Lugo
16L. Cano
10D. Díaz
51J. Wila
11T. Rodríguez
1A. Quintana
17A. Rodríguez
13D. Alejandro Romero Padilla
14M. Carabajal
5R. Schunke
19L. Loor
28H. Quintana
32J. Méndez
31E. Ivan Pata Rodríguez
9C. González
10J. SornozaBarcelona SC Substitutes
14A. Rangel
28J. Quiñónez79'for Jefferson Intriago
7E. Mendoza79'for Luis Cano
13J. Angulo
77Yordi Yonier Vernaza Rodríguez
9D. Benedetto88'for Damián Díaz90+10'
26B. Castillo73'for William·Vargas
8S. Díaz
50Y. Garcia89'for Jefferson Wila
17D. Gaspar
23T. Martínez
25Ronald Perlaza
Independiente del Valle Substitutes
16R. Briones75'for Junior Sornoza
15G. Cortéz
4J. Espinoza
18Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
8Y. Ochoa90+3'for Jhegson Mendez Carabali
70M. Peralta
11M. Perelló75'for Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
56E. Quintero
57H. Quintero
99D. Reasco45'for Carlos González
33Andy René Velasco García
23Juan Viacava63'replaced by Hugo Quintana
Match Stats
Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle 59%Ball Possession41%
5Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
15Total Shots8
7Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal1
10Shots Inside Box4
5Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots3
10Fouls8
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
449Total Passes317
392Passes Accurate248
7Free Kicks9
Team Comparison
Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle1567Elo Rating 1812
1.42Attack 1.58
1.33Defense 2.86
23%Hit Rate 69%
7.8Shots per Game 15.6
2.8Shots on Target 5.5
5.4Corners per Game 5.8
3.2Cards per Game 0.8
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Barcelona SC- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Independiente del Valle- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.2 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Barcelona SC2Wins · 20%Draws220%
Independiente del Valle6Wins · 60%
6Wins · 60%2.6Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
10/05/2026Independiente del ValleBarcelona SC10
21/12/2025Independiente del ValleBarcelona SC10
06/10/2025Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle03
06/07/2025Independiente del ValleBarcelona SC11
28/05/2025Independiente del ValleBarcelona SC21
02/04/2025Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle10
09/03/2025Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle04
11/08/2024Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle32
10/03/2024Independiente del ValleBarcelona SC31
19/08/2023Barcelona SCIndependiente del Valle11
Recent Form
Barcelona SC3W3D4L
30/08/2026
Manta FCBarcelona SC
23/08/2026Manta FCBarcelona SC20
LBarcelona SC
Orense SC30
W16/08/2026
Mushuc Runa SCBarcelona SC
09/08/2026Mushuc Runa SCBarcelona SC00
DBarcelona SC
Macara12
L06/08/2026
LDU PortoviejoBarcelona SC
03/08/2026LDU PortoviejoBarcelona SC01
W
Leones del NorteBarcelona SC11
D27/07/2026Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
Barcelona SCLDU de Quito01
L22/07/2026
Universidad CatolicaBarcelona SC
19/07/2026Universidad CatolicaBarcelona SC21
LBarcelona SC
Libertad10
W16/07/2026Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC11
DIndependiente del Valle9W1D0L
29/08/2026Independiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaIndependiente del Valle
Deportes TolimaLeones del NorteIndependiente del ValleDeportes TolimaIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
Delfin SCLDU de QuitoIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
Deportivo CuencaOrense SCIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del ValleUniversidad Catolica22
D26/08/2026Independiente del ValleDeportes Tolima31
W22/08/2026Leones del NorteIndependiente del Valle23
W19/08/2026Deportes TolimaIndependiente del Valle01
W15/08/2026Independiente del ValleDelfin SC32
W08/08/2026LDU de QuitoIndependiente del Valle02
W02/08/2026Independiente del ValleDeportivo Cuenca10
W30/07/2026Independiente del ValleManta FC
26/07/2026Independiente del ValleManta FC10
WOrense SCIndependiente del Valle23
W22/07/2026Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario30
WReferee Profile
5.35Cards per match
5.00Yellow cards per match
0.35Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.35 cards a match, 0.25 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.10).
Cards come from 74 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DLDWL |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LWLDL |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | DLLDW |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | DLWLL |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LDLWW |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | DDWLW |
| 10 |  Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WLWWD |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | LDWLL |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWLWW |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | WWLLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Championship Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81:37 | +44 | 84 | WWDLW |
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52:37 | +15 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 36 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 56:35 | +21 | 54 | DLDWL |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38:32 | +6 | 54 | DLLDW |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 40:42 | -2 | 54 | LWLDL |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 39:32 | +7 | 49 | DLWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 81:37 | 84 |
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 52:37 | 67 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 36 | 56:35 | 54 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 38:32 | 54 |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 40:42 | 54 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 39:32 | 49 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Pro matches
- Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca 29/08/26
- Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica 29/08/26
- Aucas vs Libertad 30/08/26
- LDU de Quito vs Mushuc Runa SC 02/09/26
- Leones del Norte vs Orense SC 03/09/26
- Libertad vs Emelec 04/09/26
- Independiente del Valle vs Macara 06/09/26
- Guayaquil City FC vs Mushuc Runa SC 12/09/26
About the Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Pro match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Barcelona SC and Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro table
In the Liga Pro table, Independiente del Valle are 1st and Barcelona SC 6th, 30 points apart. League goal record so far: Barcelona SC 32-25, Independiente del Valle 73-33. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Some of the data for this fixture is limited, so the model gives it a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.