Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo Prediction

Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito· F. Tello 11/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.53
SignalGOODModel42%RiskMediumGap+5.9%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.70
SignalGOODModel62%RiskMediumGap+4.4%
Independiente del Valle Rest
5 days
Flamengo Rest
4 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
34%3.21
X
39%2.90
2
27%2.43
Double Chance
1X
73%1.53
X2
66%1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.05
No
54%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 1.04 = 2.51
Over 1.5
70%1.50
Over 2.5
39%2.56
Over 3.5
20%5.00
Under 1.5
30%2.51
Under 2.5
61%1.49
Under 3.5
80%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 2.7 = 8.1
Over 8.5
54%1.44
Over 9.5
43%1.73
Over 10.5
33%2.17
Under 8.5
46%2.50
Under 9.5
57%1.96
Under 10.5
67%1.62
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.2 = 3.7
Over 3.5
51%1.30
Over 4.5
32%1.67
Under 3.5
49%2.92
Under 4.5
68%2.10

Match Events

45'Carlos González INDjorkaeff Reascos out
50'Erick PulgarFoul
57'Mateo CarabajalFoul
61'Bruno HenriqueAssist: Samuel Lino
72'Giorgian de Arrascaeta INLucas Paquetá out
72'Jorge Carrascal INGonzalo Plata out
75'Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez INMatias Mijail Perello out
75'Junior Sornoza INRonald Briones out
75'Léo PereiraAssist: Emerson Royal
85'Aron Rodríguez INEdwin Quintero out
85'Hugo Quintana INYouri Ochoa out
85'Bruno Henrique INPedro out
86'Ayrton Lucas INGuillermo Varela out
90'Samuel Lino INLuiz Araújo out
90+2'Edwin QuinteroFoul

Lineups

Independiente del Valle
4-3-3Coach: Joaquín Papa
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Coach: Leonardo Jardim
A. Quintana1A. QuintanaA. Quintana
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla13D. Alejandro Romero PadillaDaykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
M. Carabajal14M. CarabajalM. Carabajal
R. Schunke5R. SchunkeR. Schunke
L. Loor19L. LoorL. Loor
H. Quintana28H. QuintanaH. Quintana
J. Alcívar6J. AlcívarJ. Alcívar
J. Sornoza10J. SornozaJ. Sornoza
A. Rodríguez17A. RodríguezA. Rodríguez
C. González9C. GonzálezC. González
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez31E. Ivan Pata RodríguezEmerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
A. Rossi1A. RossiA. Rossi
Emerson Royal22E. RoyalEmerson Royal
Léo Ortiz3L. OrtizLéo Ortiz
Léo Pereira4L. PereiraLéo Pereira
Ayrton Lucas6A. LucasAyrton Lucas
E. Pulgar5E. PulgarE. Pulgar
Jorginho21JorginhoJorginho
J. Carrascal15J. CarrascalJ. Carrascal
G. de Arrascaeta10G. de ArrascaetaG. de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino16S. LinoSamuel Lino
Bruno Henrique27B. HenriqueBruno Henrique

Independiente del Valle Substitutes

16R. BrionesM
4J. EspinozaD
32J. MéndezM
8Y. OchoaM
11M. PerellóF
56E. QuinteroM
99D. ReascoF
33Andy René Velasco GarcíaD
23Juan ViacavaD
15G. CortézD
70M. PeraltaG
52Y. VásquezF

Flamengo Substitutes

18N. de la CruzM
19G. PlataF
14A. ValenciaF
8SaúlM
2G. VarelaD
44VitãoD
9PedroF
20Lucas PaquetáM
13DaniloD
30J. FreitasF
7Luiz AraújoF
42AndrewG

Match Stats

Independiente del ValleFlamengo
63%Ball Possession37%
10Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots4
3Shots on Goal2
11Shots off Goal1
10Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box0
4Blocked Shots1
10Fouls7
1Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves3
544Total Passes332
488Passes Accurate279
7Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
FlamengoFlamengo
1798Elo Rating 1905
1.84Attack 1.95
1.19Defense 2.73
46%Hit Rate 100%
15.1Shots per Game 18.5
4.8Shots on Target 5.6
5.9Corners per Game 10.0
1.2Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FlamengoFlamengo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 2 historical meetings

Independiente del Valle 46%Draw 0%54% Flamengo
4.46Avg Goals
0%BTTS Rate
100%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

F. Tello · 41 matches analysed

4.5Avg Yellows
4.7Avg Cards
25.9Avg Fouls
Stricter than 67% of referees analysed

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo651014:2+1216WWWDW
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.62316:5+19WLDDW
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin62136:11-57LWLWL
4CuscoCusco60154:12-81LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo614:216
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.66:59
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin66:117
4CuscoCusco64:121

Group H

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle641111:6+513WWLWW
2Rosario CentralRosario Central64119:1+813LWWWW
3UCVUCV63037:11-49WLWLL
4Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion60064:13-90LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle611:613
2Rosario CentralRosario Central69:113
3UCVUCV67:119
4Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion64:130

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals

Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo Prediction

As a knockout-stage CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

ScorePredicts covers CONMEBOL Libertadores across every knockout round. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.4 out of 10 by our context model. Independiente del Valle have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Independiente del Valle and Flamengo have met 2 times recently, averaging 4.46 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.