Independiente vs San Lorenzo Prediction
Argentina · Clausura - 9
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.73
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+11.6%
Independiente Rest
7 days
San Lorenzo Rest
8 days
Independiente vs San Lorenzo: the result in context
Independiente and San Lorenzo drew 1-1 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 13 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 7 previous meetings produced 1.7 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
147%2.15
X29%2.94
224%3.80
Double Chance
1X76%1.24
X253%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes46%2.22
No54%1.59
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.31 + 0.77 = 2.08
Over 1.559%1.57
Over 2.533%2.73
Over 3.512%5.45
Under 1.541%2.36
Under 2.567%1.40
Under 3.588%1.10
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.3 = 9.7
Over 8.559%1.67
Over 9.546%2.11
Over 10.536%2.83
Under 8.541%2.06
Under 9.554%1.62
Under 10.564%1.35
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.558%1.23
Over 4.538%1.47
Under 3.542%3.90
Under 4.562%2.57
Match Events
6'Ignacio Perruzzi AmbrosiniFoul
7'Juan Migue ArrayagoAssist: Santiago Gabriel Montiel
26'Iván MarconeFoul
45'Ignacio Perruzzi Ambrosini INEzequiel Herrera out
45'Teo Rodríguez Pagano INMathías de Ritis out
51'Facundo FaríasAssist: Danilo Arboleda
65'Santiago Gabriel MontielDissent
72'Matías Abaldo INJosias Palais out
72'Maximiliano Meza INLautaro Millán out
72'Alexis·Cuello INEnzo Alan Salas out
80'Iván Marcone INRubén David Martínez out
80'Chimy Ávila INFelipe Tempone out
80'Carlos Manuel Insaurralde INJuan Rattalino out
86'Guzman corujoFoul
88'Mateo Pérez Curci INIván Morales out
90+3'Ezequiel Herrera
Lineups
IndependienteSan Lorenzo
3-4-1-2Coach: R. InsúaAvg ratingAvg rating
33R. Rey
29L. Godoy
13J. Fedorco
35J. Arrayago
22F. Zabala
16M. Perez
23I. Marcone
8L. Millán
7S. Montiel
6E. Ávila
19M. Abaldo
25J. Devecchi
2D. Arboleda
16G. Corujo
19E. Amor
24N. Tripichio
8M. Insaurralde
5I. Perruzzi
3T. Rodríguez
38F. Farías
9A. Cuello
29R. AuzmendiIndependiente Substitutes
9I. Morales88'for Mateo Pérez Curci
14M. Meza72'for Lautaro Millán
77S. Mele
32D. Martínez80'for Iván Marcone
2F. Calderón
4S. Arias
39R. Martino
20Facundo Cruz
24J. Palais72'for Matías Abaldo
30Tomás Parmo
34F. Tempone80'for Chimy Ávila
San Lorenzo Substitutes
35A. Cordoba
30O. Arias
10Facundo Gulli
32E. Herrera45'for Ignacio Perruzzi Ambrosini90+3'
14A. Ladstatter
42F. Lorenzón
39Elián Uriel Ojeda
13Juan Rattalino80'for Carlos Manuel Insaurralde
11M. Reali
44Enzo Alan Salas72'replaced by Alexis·Cuello
6M. de Ritis45'for Teo Rodríguez Pagano
20F. Altamirano
Match Stats
IndependienteSan Lorenzo 65%Ball Possession35%
7Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots8
4Shots on Goal3
3Shots off Goal3
7Shots Inside Box3
9Shots Outside Box5
9Blocked Shots2
11Fouls14
7Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves3
413Total Passes218
349Passes Accurate156
85%Pass Accuracy72%
Team Comparison
IndependienteSan Lorenzo1655Elo Rating 1611
0.94Attack 0.91
1.64Defense 1.67
17%Hit Rate 50%
11.3Shots per Game 12.0
2.9Shots on Target 4.1
3.3Corners per Game 4.6
2.7Cards per Game 2.7
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend71% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
San Lorenzo- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings, all competitions
Independiente2Wins · 29%Draws571%
San Lorenzo0Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%1.7Avg Goals
71%Both teams scored5 of 7
29%3+ goals2 of 7
Previous meetings
02/05/2026San LorenzoIndependiente12
21/09/2025IndependienteSan Lorenzo11
08/03/2025San LorenzoIndependiente12
04/08/2024IndependienteSan Lorenzo00
02/04/2023San LorenzoIndependiente00
04/06/2022San LorenzoIndependiente11
05/12/2021IndependienteSan Lorenzo11
Recent Form
Independiente5W1D4L
06/09/2026
Central Cordoba de SantiagoIndependienteIndependiente
Gimnasia M.Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
LanusIndependienteIndependiente
Platense
Velez SarsfieldIndependienteIndependiente
Newells Old Boys
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente
Central Cordoba de SantiagoIndependiente01
W31/08/2026IndependienteGimnasia M.03
L22/08/2026IndependienteIndepend. Rivadavia00
D17/08/2026LanusIndependiente13
W13/08/2026
Atletico TucumanIndependiente
09/08/2026Atletico TucumanIndependiente40
LIndependientePlatense01
L04/08/2026Velez SarsfieldIndependiente10
L31/07/2026IndependienteNewells Old Boys10
W26/07/2026Estudiantes L.P.Independiente02
W23/05/2026
Union Santa FeIndependiente
Union Santa FeIndependiente02
WSan Lorenzo3W2D5L
06/09/2026San Lorenzo
Talleres Cordoba
Instituto CordobaSan Lorenzo
Estudiantes de Rio CuartoSan LorenzoSan LorenzoUnion Santa FeSan Lorenzo
HuracanCentral Cordoba de SantiagoSan LorenzoSan LorenzoGimnasia M.LanusSan Lorenzo
San LorenzoTalleres Cordoba10
W01/09/2026Instituto CordobaSan Lorenzo10
L22/08/2026Estudiantes de Rio CuartoSan Lorenzo00
D15/08/2026San LorenzoUnion Santa Fe10
W09/08/2026San LorenzoHuracan02
L04/08/2026Central Cordoba de SantiagoSan Lorenzo10
L29/07/2026San LorenzoGimnasia M.10
W26/07/2026LanusSan Lorenzo10
L27/05/2026San Lorenzo
Deportivo Recoleta
San LorenzoDeportivo Recoleta01
L21/05/2026
SantosSan Lorenzo
SantosSan Lorenzo22
DReferee Profile
5.27Cards per match
5.00Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
26.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.29 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.12).
Cards come from 229 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | +12 | 31 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | +13 | 30 | DWWDD |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | +6 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | +4 | 26 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | +4 | 24 | DWLLD |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | +3 | 24 | LWDLW |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 | DDWDL |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | +4 | 21 | LWLDD |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 | WWLWL |
| 10 |  Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 | LLLWW |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 | WDWLL |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 | LLLWD |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 | WDWWL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 | LLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 19:7 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 18:12 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17:13 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 18:15 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14:14 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 17:17 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 18:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 14:22 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11:21 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 15:27 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5:12 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | +10 | 29 | WWLWL |
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20:13 | +7 | 27 | LLLWW |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21:14 | +7 | 24 | DWWDD |
| 4 | Lanus | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17:10 | +7 | 24 | LWDLW |
| 5 | Velez Sarsfield | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 18:13 | +5 | 24 | WLLWD |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 21 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:15 | +1 | 20 | WDWLL |
| 8 | Independiente | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12:13 | -1 | 19 | DWLLD |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7:12 | -5 | 18 | DDWDL |
| 10 | Estudiantes L.P. | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16:15 | +1 | 14 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18:22 | -4 | 14 | LWLDD |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14:20 | -6 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 12 | LLDLD |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11:18 | -7 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13:22 | -9 | 9 | WWLWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 13 | 20:10 | 29 |
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 20:13 | 27 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 21:14 | 24 |
| 4 | Lanus | 14 | 17:10 | 24 |
| 5 | Velez Sarsfield | 13 | 18:13 | 24 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 14 | 13:10 | 21 |
| 7 | Gimnasia M. | 14 | 16:15 | 20 |
| 8 | Independiente | 13 | 12:13 | 19 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 7:12 | 18 |
| 10 | Estudiantes L.P. | 13 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 13 | 18:22 | 14 |
| 12 | Platense | 14 | 14:20 | 14 |
| 13 | Deportivo Riestra | 13 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 13 | 11:18 | 10 |
| 15 | Talleres Cordoba | 14 | 13:22 | 9 |
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This match
About the Independiente vs San Lorenzo forecast
The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Independiente and San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional Argentina table
Independiente and San Lorenzo are close in the Liga Profesional Argentina table, 5th and 7th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Independiente 24-20, San Lorenzo 14-14. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.