Lanus vs Independiente Prediction
Argentina · Clausura - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.57
SignalGOODModel41%SurpriseMediumGap+10.5%
Lanus Rest
5 days
Independiente Rest
4 days
Lanus vs Independiente: result, form and history
Independiente beat Lanus 3-1 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 17 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 1.9 goals a game across 10 matches. Referee Sebastian Nicolas Martinez averages 6.16 cards a game, 0.90 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
139%2.35
X29%2.87
232%3.40
Double Chance
1X68%1.30
X261%1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%2.18
No48%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 1 = 2.24
Over 1.569%1.57
Over 2.544%2.81
Over 3.520%5.67
Under 1.531%2.35
Under 2.556%1.40
Under 3.580%1.13
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.4 = 9.3
Over 8.557%1.70
Over 9.545%2.10
Over 10.532%2.77
Under 8.543%2.05
Under 9.555%1.64
Under 10.568%1.36
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.7 = 5.1
Over 3.570%-
Over 4.553%1.38
Under 3.530%-
Under 4.547%2.63
Match Events
37'L. MillanAssist: S. Montiel
47'L. Millan
50'A. WlkAssist: R. Carrera
61'M. Perez Curci IND. Martinez out
61'L. Millan INM. Meza out
64'E. Salvio INM. Sepulveda out
64'A. Wlk INY. Valois out
69'R. CarreraUnsportsmanlike conduct
77'F. Pena Biafore INL. Besozzi out
77'S. Montiel INM. Abaldo out
77'J. Palais INM. Gutierrez out
85'T. Guidara INN. Morgantini out
85'D. Aquino INB. Acosta out
87'I. MarconeHandling
87'G. AvalosDelay of game
89'B. AcostaFoul
90+1'G. Avalos INF. Cruz out
90+4'M. GutierrezAssist: M. Abaldo
90+5'R. ReyDelay of game
Lineups
LanusIndependiente
4-1-4-1Coach: Gustavo QuinterosAvg ratingAvg rating
26N. Losada
33T. Guidara
C24C. Izquierdoz
35R. De Jesus
6S. Marcich
5F. Peña Biafore
30A. Cardozo
11E. Salvio
23R. Carrera
25D. Aquino
20A. Wlk
33R. Rey
4S. Arias
26K. Lomónaco
35J. Miguel Arrayago
22F. Zabala
C23I. Marcone
7S. Montiel
16M. Perez Curci
14L. Millán
24J. Palais
9G. ÁvalosLanus Substitutes
16Matías Sepúlveda64'for E. Salvio
19Yoshan Valois64'for A. Wlk
1Franco Petroli
40Tomás López
4Gonzalo Perez
3Nicolás Morgantini85'for T. Guidara
13José Canale
27Facundo Sánchez
39Thiago Laplace
8Franco Watson
38Benjamin Acosta85'for D. Aquino89'
77Lucas Besozzi77'for F. Pena Biafore
Independiente Substitutes
32David Martínez61'for M. Perez Curci
8Maxi Meza61'for L. Millan
77Santiago Mele
39Ramiro Martino
40Joshua Velárdez
21Fernando Closter
28Maximiliano Gutiérrez77'for J. Palais90+4'
19Matías Abaldo77'for S. Montiel
20Facundo Cruz90+1'for G. Avalos
10Luciano Cabral
34Felipe Tempone
25Horacio Junco
Match Stats
LanusIndependiente 52%Ball Possession48%
10Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards3
21Total Shots14
6Shots on Goal4
12Shots off Goal6
14Shots Inside Box10
7Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots4
18Fouls11
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
397Total Passes379
309Passes Accurate288
78%Pass Accuracy76%
Team Comparison
LanusIndependiente1693Elo Rating 1648
1.02Attack 0.61
2.50Defense 1.74
36%Hit Rate 0%
11.7Shots per Game 14.1
3.8Shots on Target 4.0
5.0Corners per Game 4.3
1.8Cards per Game 3.3
AI Insights
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Lanus- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
Independiente- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Lanus5Wins · 50%Draws330%
Independiente2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%1.9Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
10%3+ goals1 of 10
Previous meetings
14/02/2026IndependienteLanus20
13/10/2025IndependienteLanus02
06/04/2025LanusIndependiente11
19/10/2024LanusIndependiente02
28/05/2023IndependienteLanus11
13/08/2022LanusIndependiente11
01/05/2022LanusIndependiente10
13/09/2021IndependienteLanus01
16/02/2021IndependienteLanus01
17/12/2020IndependienteLanus13
Recent Form
Lanus4W0D6L
12/08/2026
Talleres CordobaLanus
Union Santa FeLanusLanus
Instituto Cordoba
CiencianoLanusLanus
San LorenzoLanusCienciano
Talleres CordobaLanus03
W07/08/2026Union Santa FeLanus21
L03/08/2026LanusInstituto Cordoba01
L30/07/2026CiencianoLanus40
L26/07/2026LanusSan Lorenzo10
W23/07/2026LanusCienciano20
W30/05/2026Instituto CordobaLanus
Instituto CordobaLanus21
L27/05/2026Lanus
Mirassol
LanusMirassol10
W21/05/2026
LDU de QuitoLanus
LDU de QuitoLanus20
L10/05/2026
Argentinos JRSLanus
Argentinos JRSLanus20
LIndependiente5W0D5L
13/08/2026
Atletico TucumanIndependiente
09/08/2026Atletico TucumanIndependiente40
LIndependiente
Platense01
L04/08/2026
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente10
L31/07/2026Independiente
Newells Old Boys10
W26/07/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente02
W23/05/2026Union Santa FeIndependiente
Union Santa FeIndependiente02
W10/05/2026
Rosario CentralIndependiente
Rosario CentralIndependiente31
L02/05/2026San LorenzoIndependiente
San LorenzoIndependiente12
W24/04/2026
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente
Deportivo RiestraIndependiente20
L19/04/2026Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
IndependienteDefensa Y Justicia31
WReferee Profile
6.16Cards per match
5.89Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
6.16 cards a match, 0.90 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.26).
Cards come from 64 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | +12 | 31 | DWWLW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | +13 | 30 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | +6 | 28 | DDDWL |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | +4 | 26 | DWWLW |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | +4 | 24 | WLWDW |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | +3 | 24 | DLWDL |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 | LWDDW |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | +4 | 21 | DDLLW |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 | DLWWL |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 | LLLLW |
| 11 |  Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 | LWDWL |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 | LLLDD |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 | DWLLL |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 | DWDWW |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 | DWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 19:7 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 18:12 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 17:13 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 24:20 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 18:15 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14:14 | 22 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 17:17 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 18:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 14:22 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11:21 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 15:27 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5:12 | 11 |
Clausura - Group A
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 24:13 | +11 | 33 | DLWWL |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23:14 | +9 | 30 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25:17 | +8 | 28 | DDDWL |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | +7 | 28 | LLLLW |
| 5 | Lanus | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18:11 | +7 | 25 | DLWDL |
| 6 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 23 | WLWDW |
| 7 | Newells Old Boys | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 22 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Gimnasia M. | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17:16 | +1 | 21 | LWDWL |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24:24 | 0 | 21 | DDLLW |
| 10 | Platense | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 20 | LLLDD |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9:16 | -7 | 19 | LWDDW |
| 12 | Estudiantes L.P. | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 20:21 | -1 | 15 | DWWLW |
| 13 | Talleres Cordoba | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16:22 | -6 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 11:19 | -8 | 12 | DWLLL |
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11:25 | -14 | 10 | DWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 15 | 24:13 | 33 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 23:14 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 25:17 | 28 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 15 | 21:14 | 28 |
| 5 | Lanus | 15 | 18:11 | 25 |
| 6 | Independiente | 16 | 15:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Newells Old Boys | 15 | 14:11 | 22 |
| 8 | Gimnasia M. | 15 | 17:16 | 21 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 24:24 | 21 |
| 10 | Platense | 16 | 18:20 | 20 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 9:16 | 19 |
| 12 | Estudiantes L.P. | 15 | 20:21 | 15 |
| 13 | Talleres Cordoba | 15 | 16:22 | 12 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 11:19 | 12 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 15 | 11:25 | 10 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Profesional Argentina matches
- Belgrano Cordoba vs Independ. Rivadavia 16/08/26
- Newells Old Boys vs Deportivo Riestra 16/08/26
- River Plate vs Argentinos JRS 16/08/26
- Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Instituto Cordoba 17/08/26
- Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia 18/08/26
- Gimnasia M. vs Talleres Cordoba 18/08/26
- Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe 21/08/26
- Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs San Lorenzo 22/08/26
About the Lanus vs Independiente forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Lanus and Independiente in the Liga Profesional Argentina table
In the Liga Profesional Argentina table, Lanus (6th) and Independiente (5th) are level on 24 points. League goal record so far: Lanus 18-15, Independiente 24-20. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.