Lazio vs Genoa Prediction

Lazio
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Genoa
Stadio Olimpico, Rome·Ermanno Feliciani, Italy 30/08/2026
LazioLazio
1-0
Finished
GenoaGenoa

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
58%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+6.4%
Lazio Rest
6 days
Genoa Rest
8 days

Lazio vs Genoa: the result in context

Lazio beat Genoa 1-0 in the Serie A on 30 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Lazio had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Genoa.

Lazio have had the better of this fixture, winning 9 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.2 goals a game. Referee Ermanno Feliciani averages 3.46 cards a game, 1.06 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%2.25
X
27%3.00
2
28%3.70
Double Chance
1X
72%1.26
X2
55%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%2.01
No
58%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 0.95 = 2.42
Over 1.5
72%1.47
Over 2.5
41%2.50
Over 3.5
14%4.65
Under 1.5
28%2.63
Under 2.5
59%1.54
Under 3.5
86%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.1 = 9.5
Over 8.5
58%1.80
Over 9.5
46%2.28
Over 10.5
34%3.04
Under 8.5
42%1.95
Under 9.5
54%1.57
Under 10.5
66%1.31
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 1.7 = 3.1
Over 3.5
37%1.76
Over 4.5
19%2.35
Under 3.5
63%1.99
Under 4.5
81%1.56

Match Events

14'L. OstigardTripping
25'D. FrattesiAssist: N. Tavares
35'D. De Rossi
37'N. Rovella INR. Belahyane out
58'D. Sow INJunior Messias out
63'N. Tavares INA. Pedraza out
63'M. Cancellieri ING. Isaksen out
63'Vitinha INM. Osmajic out
78'J. Vasquez INAmorim out
78'T. Baldanzi INF. Meichtry out
80'B. Dia INA. Pinamonti out
80'R. Floriani INM. Lazzari out
90+5'M. ZaccagniUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'AmorimUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Lazio
4-3-3Coach: Gennaro Gattuso
Genoa
3-4-2-1Coach: Daniele De Rossi
Avg rating6.87
Avg rating6.75
Christos Mandas6.935C. Mandas
Romano Floriani Mussolini6.915R. Floriani Mussolini
Danilho Doekhi6.95D. Doekhi
Oliver Provstgaard7.225O. Provstgaard
Nuno Tavares7.217N. Tavares
Davide Frattesi7.516D. Frattesi
Nicolò Rovella6.96N. Rovella
Kenneth Taylor6.924K. Taylor
Matteo Cancellieri7.222M. Cancellieri
Boulaye Dia6.719B. Dia
Mattia ZaccagniC7.310M. Zaccagni
Justin Bijlow6.71J. Bijlow
Alessandro Marcandalli6.327A. Marcandalli
Leo Østigård7.05L. Østigård
Johan VásquezC7.022J. Vásquez
Mikael Ellertsson6.377M. Ellertsson
Morten Frendrup6.632M. Frendrup
Djibril Sow7.297D. Sow
Brooke Norton-Cuffy6.715B. Norton-Cuffy
Tommaso Baldanzi6.68T. Baldanzi
Vitinha6.99Vitinha
Lorenzo Colombo5.929L. Colombo

Lazio Substitutes

21Reda Belahyane37'for N. Rovella6.9
23Alfonso Pedraza63'for N. Tavares6.5
11Gustav Isaksen63'for M. Cancellieri6.2
29Manuel Lazzari80'for R. Floriani6.5
9Andrea Pinamonti80'for B. Dia6.2
47Davide Renzetti
40Edoardo Motta
33Ricardo Bordon
13Alessio Romagnoli
37Josip Šutalo
71Valerio Farcomeni
28Adrian Przyborek
63Federico Serra
14Tijjani Noslin

Genoa Substitutes

10Junior Messias58'for D. Sow7.7
18Milutin Osmajić63'for Vitinha6.9
11Franz-Ethan Meichtry78'for T. Baldanzi6.7
4Alexsandro Amorim78'for J. Vasquez90+5'6.7
39Daniele Sommariva
99Franz Stolz
85Marcelo Vaz
74Mamedi Doucoure
34Sebastian Otoa
31David Puczka
2Mario Mitaj
71Samuel Wiafe
20Stefano Sabelli
3Aarón Martín
17Elias Havel

Match Stats

LazioGenoa
46%Ball Possession54%
4Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots8
2Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal4
9Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box3
5Blocked Shots3
18Fouls6
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves1
488Total Passes565
418Passes Accurate488
86%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

LazioLazio
GenoaGenoa
1898Elo Rating 1749
3.22Attack 1.47
1.94Defense 2.26
100%Hit Rate 83%
14.6Shots per Game 11.0
5.4Shots on Target 2.8
4.5Corners per Game 3.5
1.4Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+149 Elo
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

LazioLazio
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
GenoaGenoa
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

LazioLazio9Wins · 90%
Draws00%
GenoaGenoa1Wins · 10%
3.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A30/01/2026
LazioGenoa
32
Serie A29/09/2025
GenoaLazio
03
Serie A23/04/2025
GenoaLazio
02
Serie A27/10/2024
LazioGenoa
30
Serie A19/04/2024
GenoaLazio
01
Coppa Italia05/12/2023
LazioGenoa
10
Serie A27/08/2023
LazioGenoa
01
Serie A10/04/2022
GenoaLazio
14
Serie A17/12/2021
LazioGenoa
31
Serie A02/05/2021
LazioGenoa
43

Recent Form

LazioLazio
7W0D3L
24/08/2026
BolognaLazio
01
W
16/08/2026
LazioMantova
02
L
09/08/2026
FrosinoneLazio
12
W
05/08/2026
LazioOstia Mare
40
W
02/08/2026
AscoliLazio
12
W
01/08/2026
LazioAvellino
63
W
26/07/2026
LazioFlaminia
60
W
23/05/2026
LazioPisa
21
W
17/05/2026
AS RomaLazio
20
L
13/05/2026
LazioInter
02
L
GenoaGenoa
3W3D4L
22/08/2026
GenoaNapoli
02
L
16/08/2026
GenoaAscoli
41
W
08/08/2026
GenoaDeportivo La Coruna
01
L
04/08/2026
BournemouthGenoa
101
L
01/08/2026
LeicesterGenoa
01
W
25/07/2026
GenoaVicenza Virtus
22
D
19/07/2026
GenoaTrento
21
W
17/05/2026
GenoaAC Milan
12
L
10/05/2026
FiorentinaGenoa
00
D
02/05/2026
AtalantaGenoa
00
D

Referee Profile

Ermanno Feliciani112 matches

3.46Cards per match
3.36Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
25.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ermanno Feliciani3.46
Other referees4.52

3.46 cards a match, 1.06 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.52).

Cards come from 76 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LazioLazio1192025:9+1629DWWWW
2InterInter1191128:13+1528WLWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma1183031:10+2127WWWDW
4AC MilanAC Milan1173123:13+1024WWLWW
5ComoComo1172218:10+823LWWWW
6FrosinoneFrosinone1162324:15+920LWWDW
7JuventusJuventus1052313:10+317WLWLD
8BolognaBologna1152416:14+217WWWWL
9CagliariCagliari1151510:15-516WLLLL
10NapoliNapoli1143418:14+415DLWDL
11TorinoTorino1142515:17-214DLLWW
12AtalantaAtalanta1142517:20-314WLDDL
13GenoaGenoa1141611:16-513LWWWL
14LecceLecce1131712:22-1010DLLLW
15FiorentinaFiorentina1022615:23-88WDLLL
16ParmaParma112279:17-88LWDLL
17SassuoloSassuolo1122716:29-138LLLLL
18MonzaMonza1121817:25-87LLLLW
19VeneziaVenezia112098:21-136WLLLW
20UdineseUdinese1112812:25-135LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1LazioLazio1125:929
2InterInter1128:1328
3AS RomaAS Roma1131:1027
4AC MilanAC Milan1123:1324
5ComoComo1118:1023
6FrosinoneFrosinone1124:1520
7JuventusJuventus1013:1017
8BolognaBologna1116:1417
9CagliariCagliari1110:1516
10NapoliNapoli1118:1415
11TorinoTorino1115:1714
12AtalantaAtalanta1117:2014
13GenoaGenoa1111:1613
14LecceLecce1112:2210
15FiorentinaFiorentina1015:238
16ParmaParma119:178
17SassuoloSassuolo1116:298
18MonzaMonza1117:257
19VeneziaVenezia118:216
20UdineseUdinese1112:255
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lazio vs Genoa forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lazio and Genoa in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Lazio are 1st and Genoa 13th, 16 points apart. League goal record so far: Lazio 25-9, Genoa 11-16. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Lazio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Genoa have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.