Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction

Atalanta
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Bologna
New Balance Arena, Bergamo·Daniele Doveri, Italy 31/08/2026
AtalantaAtalanta
1-0
Finished
BolognaBologna

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.53
SignalGOODModel52%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Atalanta Rest
4 days
Bologna Rest
7 days

Atalanta vs Bologna: the result in context

Atalanta beat Bologna 1-0 in the Serie A on 31 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Atalanta had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Bologna.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game. Referee Daniele Doveri averages 3.68 cards a game, 0.86 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.92
X
26%3.60
2
24%4.10
Double Chance
1X
76%1.25
X2
50%1.90
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.75
No
43%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.56 + 1.03 = 2.59
Over 1.5
73%1.29
Over 2.5
49%1.91
Over 3.5
22%3.23
Under 1.5
27%3.50
Under 2.5
51%1.91
Under 3.5
78%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 3.8 = 8.3
Over 8.5
36%1.59
Over 9.5
23%2.00
Over 10.5
8%2.57
Under 8.5
64%2.19
Under 9.5
77%1.75
Under 10.5
92%1.45
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.9 = 3.8
Over 3.5
52%2.58
Over 4.5
30%3.85
Under 3.5
48%1.45
Under 4.5
70%1.22

Match Events

55'C. De Ketelaere INN. Zalewski out
56'G. Raspadori INE. Elmas out
60'J. Odgaard INR. Orsolini out
60'R. Piccoli INA. Dovbyk out
61'D. Tedesco
68'G. Scamacca INN. Krstovic out
68'Ederson INL. Samardzic out
72'E. Holm INN. Zortea out
72'T. Pobega INM. Amondarain out
73'N. KrstovicUnsportsmanlike conduct
78'S. Kolasinac INR. Bellanova out
80'R. Orsolini INN. Moro out
90+6'L. SamardzicAssist: N. Zalewski

Lineups

Atalanta
4-3-3Coach: Maurizio Sarri
Bologna
4-2-3-1Coach: Domenico Tedesco
Avg rating6.99
Avg rating6.70
Marco Carnesecchi8.229M. Carnesecchi
Davide Zappacosta7.077D. Zappacosta
Odilon Kossounou7.33O. Kossounou
Giorgio Scalvini7.242G. Scalvini
Sead Kolašinac6.923S. Kolašinac
Mario Pašalić6.98M. Pašalić
Gianluca Gaetano6.970G. Gaetano
ÉdersonC6.913Éderson
Charles De Ketelaere6.917C. De Ketelaere
Gianluca Scamacca6.39G. Scamacca
Giacomo Raspadori6.518G. Raspadori
Łukasz Skorupski6.21Ł. Skorupski
Emil Holm7.22E. Holm
Eivind Helland7.05E. Helland
Torbjørn Heggem7.214T. Heggem
Abdel Rahim6.723A. Rahim
Tommaso Pobega6.74T. Pobega
Lewis FergusonC7.219L. Ferguson
Federico Bernardeschi6.910F. Bernardeschi
Jens Odgaard7.021J. Odgaard
Nicolò Cambiaghi6.228N. Cambiaghi
Roberto Piccoli6.691R. Piccoli

Atalanta Substitutes

59Nicola Zalewski55'for C. De Ketelaere6.9
99Eljif Elmas56'for G. Raspadori6.7
10Lazar Samardžić68'for Ederson90+6'7.7
90Nikola Krstović68'for G. Scamacca73'6.3
16Raoul Bellanova78'for S. Kolasinac7.2
57Marco Sportiello
95Paolo Vismara
40Relja Obrić
6Ibrahim Sulemana
49Federico Cassa
47Lorenzo Bernasconi

Bologna Substitutes

7Riccardo Orsolini60'for J. Odgaard80'for N. Moro6.3
9Artem Dovbyk60'for R. Piccoli6.3
20Nadir Zortea72'for E. Holm6.3
8Mikel Amondarain72'for T. Pobega6.7
6Nikola Moro80'replaced by R. Orsolini6.7
25Massimo Pessina
72Ukko Happonen
33Juan Miranda
16Nicolò Casale
29Lorenzo De Silvestri
3Arthur Theate
41Martin Vitík
18Marco Libra

Match Stats

AtalantaBologna
42%Ball Possession58%
1Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards0
6Total Shots16
2Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal10
3Shots Inside Box10
3Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots3
10Fouls13
0Offsides4
3Goalkeeper Saves1
478Total Passes683
407Passes Accurate620
85%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

AtalantaAtalanta
BolognaBologna
1783Elo Rating 1793
2.21Attack 2.20
0.52Defense 1.57
14%Hit Rate 66%
15.7Shots per Game 10.1
5.3Shots on Target 4.2
5.3Corners per Game 3.2
1.7Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend30% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AtalantaAtalanta
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BolognaBologna
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.8 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AtalantaAtalanta4Wins · 40%
Draws110%
BolognaBologna5Wins · 50%
1.8Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A17/05/2026
AtalantaBologna
01
Serie A07/01/2026
BolognaAtalanta
02
Serie A13/04/2025
AtalantaBologna
20
Coppa Italia04/02/2025
AtalantaBologna
01
Serie A28/09/2024
BolognaAtalanta
11
Serie A03/03/2024
AtalantaBologna
12
Serie A23/12/2023
BolognaAtalanta
10
Serie A08/04/2023
AtalantaBologna
02
Serie A09/01/2023
BolognaAtalanta
12
Serie A20/03/2022
BolognaAtalanta
01

Recent Form

AtalantaAtalanta
5W3D2L
27/08/2026
Hapoel Tel AvivAtalanta
01
W
23/08/2026
AtalantaSassuolo
21
W
20/08/2026
AtalantaHapoel Tel Aviv
00
D
14/08/2026
AtalantaAthletic Club
10
W
08/08/2026
FC Schalke 04Atalanta
03
W
02/08/2026
FeyenoordAtalanta
21
L
22/05/2026
FiorentinaAtalanta
11
D
17/05/2026
AtalantaBologna
01
L
10/05/2026
AC MilanAtalanta
23
W
02/05/2026
AtalantaGenoa
00
D
BolognaBologna
4W3D3L
24/08/2026
BolognaLazio
01
L
15/08/2026
BrightonBologna
10
L
08/08/2026
BolognaPisa
11
D
01/08/2026
BolognaCambuur
31
W
25/07/2026
BolognaIraklis 1908
20
W
22/07/2026
Bologna1. FC Heidenheim
11
D
18/07/2026
BolognaArminia Bielefeld
04
L
23/05/2026
BolognaInter
33
D
17/05/2026
AtalantaBologna
01
W
11/05/2026
NapoliBologna
23
W

Referee Profile

Daniele Doveri137 matches

3.71Cards per match
3.58Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
25.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Daniele Doveri3.68
Other referees4.54

3.68 cards a match, 0.86 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.54).

Cards come from 129 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LazioLazio1091024:8+1628WWWWW
2InterInter1081126:13+1325LWWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma1073028:10+1824WWDWD
4ComoComo1072118:8+1023WWWWD
5AC MilanAC Milan1063121:12+921WLWWD
6FrosinoneFrosinone1062224:14+1020WWDWL
7JuventusJuventus1052313:10+317WLWLD
8NapoliNapoli1042417:13+414LWDLW
9BolognaBologna1042414:13+114WWWLW
10TorinoTorino1041514:16-213LLWWW
11GenoaGenoa1041510:14-413WWWLW
12CagliariCagliari104159:15-613LLLLD
13AtalantaAtalanta932416:17-111DDLWL
14LecceLecce1030711:21-109LLLWL
15FiorentinaFiorentina1022615:23-88WDLLL
16SassuoloSassuolo1022616:26-108LLLLD
17MonzaMonza1021717:24-77LLLWL
18ParmaParma91265:15-105DLLLW
19UdineseUdinese1012711:23-125LDLLL
20VeneziaVenezia101096:20-143LLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1LazioLazio1024:828
2InterInter1026:1325
3AS RomaAS Roma1028:1024
4ComoComo1018:823
5AC MilanAC Milan1021:1221
6FrosinoneFrosinone1024:1420
7JuventusJuventus1013:1017
8NapoliNapoli1017:1314
9BolognaBologna1014:1314
10TorinoTorino1014:1613
11GenoaGenoa1010:1413
12CagliariCagliari109:1513
13AtalantaAtalanta916:1711
14LecceLecce1011:219
15FiorentinaFiorentina1015:238
16SassuoloSassuolo1016:268
17MonzaMonza1017:247
18ParmaParma95:155
19UdineseUdinese1011:235
20VeneziaVenezia106:203
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Atalanta vs Bologna forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Atalanta and Bologna in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Bologna are 9th and Atalanta 13th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Atalanta 16-17, Bologna 14-13. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Atalanta have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.