Genoa vs Ascoli Prediction

Genoa
4-1
Finished
HT 2-1
Ascoli
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa·Mario Perri, Italy 16/08/2026
GenoaGenoa
4-1
Finished
AscoliAscoli

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.25
SignalHIGHModel53%SurpriseMediumGap-0.5%
Genoa Rest
7 days
Ascoli Rest
7 days

Genoa vs Ascoli: result, form and history

Genoa beat Ascoli 4-1 in the Coppa Italia on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Ascoli tend to win more corners, 7.2 a game to 3.9 for Genoa.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.43
X
29%4.38
2
19%7.00
Double Chance
1X
81%1.08
X2
48%2.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.95
No
47%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.73 + 1.45 = 3.18
Over 1.5
81%1.25
Over 2.5
47%1.81
Over 3.5
26%3.00
Under 1.5
19%3.70
Under 2.5
53%1.97
Under 3.5
74%1.33
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

25'A. SilipoAssist: S. D'Uffizi
42'A. MarcandalliAssist: M. Mitaj
45'T. BaldanziAssist: B. Norton-Cuffy
46'M. Mitaj IND. Sow out
46'S. Otoa INL. Ostigard out
50'L. Ostigard
57'G. Corradini ING. Acampora out
57'G. Gori INM. A. Chakir out
61'L. ColomboAssist: M. Frendrup
66'L. Colombo INE. Havel out
75'T. Milanese INA. Oliveri out
75'S. Damiani INA. Russo out
78'M. E. Ellertsson IND. Puczka out
78'T. Baldanzi INS. Wiafe out
80'E. HavelAssist: S. Wiafe
80'S. D'Uffizi IND. Bolsius out
85'M. Curado

Lineups

Genoa
3-5-2Coach: Daniele De Rossi
Ascoli
4-2-3-1Coach: Francesco Tomei
Avg rating7.05
Avg rating6.51
Justin Bijlow6.31J. Bijlow
Alessandro Marcandalli8.227A. Marcandalli
Sebastian Otoa6.334S. Otoa
Johan VásquezC6.322J. Vásquez
Brooke Norton-Cuffy7.215B. Norton-Cuffy
Morten Frendrup7.532M. Frendrup
Tommaso Baldanzi8.28T. Baldanzi
Mikael Ellertsson6.777M. Ellertsson
Mario Mitaj7.32M. Mitaj
Lorenzo Colombo7.329L. Colombo
Vitinha6.69Vitinha
Samuele Vitale6.61S. Vitale
Tommaso Milanese6.362T. Milanese
Marcos Curado6.530M. Curado
Nicholas Rizzo6.233N. Rizzo
Abdoul Guiebre5.519A. Guiebre
Giovanni Corradini7.28G. Corradini
Samuele Damiani6.94S. Damiani
Andrea Silipo7.27A. Silipo
Sergiu Perciun6.311S. Perciun
Simone D'UffiziC6.315S. D'Uffizi
Gabriele Gori6.735G. Gori

Genoa Substitutes

39Daniele Sommariva
99Franz Stolz
74Mamedi Doucoure
31David Puczka78'for M. E. Ellertsson6.9
5Leo Østigård46'for S. Otoa50'6.3
44Chec Bebel Doumbia
97Djibril Sow46'for M. Mitaj6.7
71Samuel Wiafe78'for T. Baldanzi7.3
4Alexsandro Amorim
3Aarón Martín
20Stefano Sabelli
80Adam Zulevic
17Elias Havel66'for L. Colombo80'7.7
10Junior Messias

Ascoli Substitutes

12Rocco Dente
45Gian Marco Crespi
17Filippo Diamanti
32Federico Gattoni
18Luca Lo Scalzo
14Andrea Oliveri75'for T. Milanese6.7
77Don Bolsius80'for S. D'Uffizi6.5
13Gennaro Acampora57'for G. Corradini6.5
9Amine Chakir57'for G. Gori6.2
21Giacomo De Pieri
16Antonio Russo75'for S. Damiani6.5

Match Stats

GenoaAscoli
39%Ball Possession61%
8Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards1
24Total Shots9
10Shots on Goal2
9Shots off Goal1
15Shots Inside Box6
9Shots Outside Box3
5Blocked Shots6
10Fouls9
2Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
339Total Passes553
278Passes Accurate482
82%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

GenoaGenoa
AscoliAscoli
1735Elo Rating 1678
1.24Attack 2.53
2.16Defense 2.44
66%Hit Rate 64%
10.5Shots per Game 14.1
3.0Shots on Target 5.2
3.9Corners per Game 7.2
2.1Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.18 goals
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

GenoaGenoa
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AscoliAscoli
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

GenoaGenoa1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
AscoliAscoli0Wins · 0%
1.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

Serie B06/05/2023
GenoaAscoli
21
Serie B11/12/2022
AscoliGenoa
00

Recent Form

GenoaGenoa
3W3D4L
08/08/2026
GenoaDeportivo La Coruna
01
L
04/08/2026
BournemouthGenoa
101
L
01/08/2026
LeicesterGenoa
01
W
25/07/2026
GenoaVicenza Virtus
22
D
19/07/2026
GenoaTrento
21
W
17/05/2026
GenoaAC Milan
12
L
10/05/2026
FiorentinaGenoa
00
D
02/05/2026
AtalantaGenoa
00
D
26/04/2026
GenoaComo
02
L
19/04/2026
PisaGenoa
12
W
AscoliAscoli
4W2D4L
08/08/2026
AscoliPotenza
31
W
02/08/2026
AscoliLazio
12
L
26/07/2026
FrosinoneAscoli
10
L
07/06/2026
AscoliUnion Brescia
30
W
03/06/2026
Union BresciaAscoli
11
D
27/05/2026
CataniaAscoli
21
L
24/05/2026
AscoliCatania
40
W
20/05/2026
AscoliPotenza
10
W
17/05/2026
PotenzaAscoli
00
D
26/04/2026
Campobasso FCAscoli
10
L

Referee Profile

Mario Perri97 matches

4.68Cards per match
4.54Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
28.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mario Perri4.68
Other referees4.56

4.68 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.56).

Cards come from 41 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

About the Genoa vs Ascoli forecast

As a knockout tie in the Coppa Italia, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Coppa Italia

More Coppa Italia fixtures and forecasts are on the Coppa Italia Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Genoa have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Genoa and Ascoli have met only 2 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.