Lazio vs Mantova Prediction

Lazio
0-2
Finished
HT 0-0
Mantova
Stadio Olimpico, Rome·G. Mucera 16/08/2026
LazioLazio
0-2
Finished
MantovaMantova

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.18
SignalHIGHModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-5.1%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.44
SignalHIGHModel35%SurpriseHighGap+7.9%
Lazio Rest
7 days
Mantova Rest
7 days

Lazio vs Mantova: result, form and history

Mantova beat Lazio 2-0 in the Coppa Italia on 16 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Lazio had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for Mantova.

Referee G. Mucera averages 3.19 cards a game, 1.04 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.28
X
28%5.35
2
22%10.00
Double Chance
1X
78%1.04
X2
50%3.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.08
No
47%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.89 + 2.12 = 4.01
Over 1.5
82%1.18
Over 2.5
49%1.65
Over 3.5
28%2.62
Under 1.5
18%4.33
Under 2.5
51%2.19
Under 3.5
72%1.44
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

21'B. Tomasevic
25'N. Rovella
56'F. Dele-Bashiru
56'R. Ilie IND. Bragantini out
56'B. Tomasevic INA. Meroni out
56'J. Silva INI. Cajazzo out
64'A. Pedraza INL. Pellegrini out
71'F. Dele-Bashiru IND. Frattesi out
71'B. Dia INP. Ratkov out
74'L. Ignacchiti INJ. Longonda out
75'F. RuoccoAssist: D. Bragantini
79'M. Cancellieri
79'N. Rovella INR. Belahyane out
79'M. Cancellieri INT. Noslin out
85'F. Benaissa-Yahia IND. Wieser out
90+6'I. CajazzoAssist: D. Wieser

Lineups

Lazio
Coach: Gennaro Gattuso
Mantova
Coach: Francesco Modesto

Lazio Starting XI

35Christos Mandas6.9
77Adam Marušić7.3
5Danilho Doekhi6.5
25Oliver Provstgaard6.2
23Alfonso Pedraza64'replaced by L. Pellegrini6.9
7Fisayo Dele-Bashiru56'71'replaced by D. Frattesi7.0
6Nicolò Rovella25'79'replaced by R. Belahyane6.9
24Kenneth Taylor6.9
22Matteo Cancellieri79'79'replaced by T. Noslin5.6
19Boulaye Dia71'replaced by P. Ratkov6.3
10Mattia ZaccagniC6.6
Avg rating6.66

Mantova Starting XI

22Francesco Bardi7.2
5Bodin Tomašević21'56'replaced by A. Meroni6.6
29Stefano Cella6.9
27Alessio Castellini7.5
41Jonathan Silva56'replaced by I. Cajazzo6.7
21Simone TrimboliC7.0
25Lorenzo Ignacchiti74'replaced by J. Longonda6.6
50Fahem Benaissa-Yahia85'replaced by D. Wieser6.9
8Rareș Ilie56'replaced by D. Bragantini6.6
19Francesco Ruocco75'7.5
9Ettore Gliozzi6.7
Avg rating7.00

Lazio Substitutes

3Luca Pellegrini64'for A. Pedraza6.5
16Davide Frattesi71'for F. Dele-Bashiru6.3
20Petar Ratkov71'for B. Dia6.7
21Reda Belahyane79'for N. Rovella6.7
14Tijjani Noslin79'for M. Cancellieri7.2
40Edoardo Motta
47Davide Renzetti
29Manuel Lazzari
33Ricardo Bordon
15Romano Floriani Mussolini
28Adrian Przyborek
71Valerio Farcomeni
8Bruno Galassi
63Federico Serra

Mantova Substitutes

13Andrea Meroni56'for B. Tomasevic6.9
11Ismael Cajazzo56'for J. Silva90+6'8.2
30Davide Bragantini56'for R. Ilie7.3
6Jean Pierre Longonda74'for L. Ignacchiti6.5
10David Wieser85'for F. Benaissa-Yahia6.9
1Luca Gemello
12Manuel Gasparini
33Cristian Marai
18Sambaly Keïta
20Flavio Paoletti
44Yassin Banna
14Badr Bayou
71Federico Chinetti

Match Stats

LazioMantova
70%Ball Possession30%
7Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards1
21Total Shots12
3Shots on Goal7
12Shots off Goal2
14Shots Inside Box8
7Shots Outside Box4
6Blocked Shots3
14Fouls13
1Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves3
636Total Passes278
550Passes Accurate209
86%Pass Accuracy75%

Team Comparison

LazioLazio
MantovaMantova
1892Elo Rating 1618
3.44Attack 1.01
2.07Defense 1.62
100%Hit Rate 39%
15.4Shots per Game 14.7
5.3Shots on Target 5.6
4.9Corners per Game 3.9
1.4Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+274 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy4.01 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

LazioLazio
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
MantovaMantova
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

LazioLazio
7W0D3L
09/08/2026
FrosinoneLazio
12
W
05/08/2026
LazioOstia Mare
40
W
02/08/2026
AscoliLazio
12
W
01/08/2026
LazioAvellino
63
W
26/07/2026
LazioFlaminia
60
W
23/05/2026
LazioPisa
21
W
17/05/2026
AS RomaLazio
20
L
13/05/2026
LazioInter
02
L
09/05/2026
LazioInter
03
L
04/05/2026
CremoneseLazio
12
W
MantovaMantova
6W0D4L
09/08/2026
MantovaAthletic Carpi
01
L
06/08/2026
Legnago SalusMantova
13
W
30/07/2026
MantovaAlcione
62
W
08/05/2026
FrosinoneMantova
50
L
01/05/2026
MantovaMonza
32
W
25/04/2026
SudtirolMantova
03
W
18/04/2026
MantovaAvellino
02
L
12/04/2026
SpeziaMantova
02
W
06/04/2026
MantovaVirtus Entella
10
W
21/03/2026
ModenaMantova
21
L

Referee Profile

G. Mucera81 matches

3.19Cards per match
2.93Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
24.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

G. Mucera3.19
Other referees4.23

3.19 cards a match, 1.04 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.23).

Cards come from 27 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

About the Lazio vs Mantova forecast

As a knockout tie in the Coppa Italia, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Coppa Italia

More Coppa Italia fixtures and forecasts are on the Coppa Italia Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Lazio have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Lazio and Mantova have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.