Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol Prediction

Primera DivisiónUruguay Uruguay · Clausura - 11
Liverpool Montevideo
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Penarol
Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera, Montevideo·Esteban Ostojich 18/10/2026
Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo
1-0
Finished
PenarolPenarol

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.29
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseHighGap-7.2%
Liverpool Montevideo Rest
8 days
Penarol Rest
8 days

Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol: the result in context

Liverpool Montevideo beat Penarol 1-0 in the Primera División on 18 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them. Referee Esteban Ostojich averages 6.62 cards a game, 1.44 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
30%3.19
X
29%3.09
2
41%2.13
Double Chance
1X
59%1.60
X2
71%1.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.83
No
48%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.26 + 1.23 = 2.49
Over 1.5
69%1.36
Over 2.5
45%2.10
Over 3.5
25%3.87
Under 1.5
31%2.92
Under 2.5
55%1.64
Under 3.5
75%1.21
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

13'Jesús Trindade
26'Enzo Castillo Sosa
32'Mauricio Lemos
45+2'Jesús Trindade
46'Mauricio Lemos INThiago Espinosa out
49'Eric Remedi
63'Kevin Lewis
65'Renzo Machado INRubén Bentancourt out
65'Kevin Lewis INDiego Romero Lanz out
72'Ramiro Matias Degregorio INDiego Zabala out
73'Federico Martinez
75'Matías Arezo INAbel Hernández out
75'Cristian Jaime INFranco González out
75'Javier Cabrera INRoberto Fernández out
79'Germán Pezzella
84'Nicolas Garayalde
87'Lucas acosta INSantiago Laquidain out
87'Nicolas Garayalde INSantiago Milano Larrosa out
87'Eric Remedi INLuis Miguel Angulo out
88'Santiago Milano Larrosa

Lineups

Liverpool Montevideo
3-4-1-2Coach: J. Fossati
Penarol
3-4-2-1Coach: D. Aguirre
M. Bernatene1M. Bernatene
S. Strasorier3S. Strasorier
E. Castillo23E. Castillo
A. Cayetano18A. Cayetano
R. Haller24R. Haller
N. Garayalde5N. Garayalde
Lucas Acosta Moreno16L. Acosta Moreno
K. Lewis34K. Lewis
R. Degregorio10R. Degregorio
F. Martínez7F. Martínez
R. Machado9R. Machado
W. Aguerre29W. Aguerre
N. Herrera34N. Herrera
G. Pezzella2G. Pezzella
M. Lemos3M. Lemos
J. Cabrera7J. Cabrera
E. Remedi5E. Remedi
J. Trindade21J. Trindade
E. Darias13E. Darias
C. Jaime11C. Jaime
L. Umpiérrez32L. Umpiérrez
M. Arezo19M. Arezo

Liverpool Montevideo Substitutes

19R. Bentancourt65'for Renzo Machado
26T. Brizuela
25M. Campaña
15S. Laquidaín87'for Lucas acosta
6S. Milano87'for Nicolas Garayalde88'
4F. Perdomo
33Joaquin Pintos
27D. Romero65'for Kevin Lewis
22D. Zabala72'for Ramiro Matias Degregorio
8M. Mir

Penarol Substitutes

28I. Alegre
77L. Angulo87'for Eric Remedi
1S. Britos
26Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat46'for Mauricio Lemos
8N. Fernández75'for Javier Cabrera
80F. González75'for Cristian Jaime
99A. Hernández75'for Matías Arezo
27L. Hernández
15M. Olivera
33J. Rodríguez

Match Stats

Liverpool MontevideoPenarol
63%Ball Possession37%
5Corner Kicks4
4Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
10Total Shots5
3Shots on Goal0
7Shots off Goal5
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo
PenarolPenarol
1626Elo Rating 1661
1.47Attack 0.50
2.33Defense 2.44
81%Hit Rate 17%
9.7Shots per Game 9.8
4.9Shots on Target 2.8
4.4Corners per Game 4.2
3.3Cards per Game 3.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PenarolPenarol
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0.1 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo5Wins · 50%
Draws110%
PenarolPenarol4Wins · 40%
2.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura16/05/2026
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
21
Primera División - Apertura14/04/2026
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
02
Copa Uruguay11/09/2025
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
21
Primera División - Apertura19/06/2025
Liverpool MontevideoPenarol
32
Primera División - Apertura21/03/2025
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
03
Primera División - Apertura03/05/2024
Liverpool MontevideoPenarol
22
Copa Uruguay13/02/2024
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
31
Primera División - Apertura25/03/2023
Liverpool MontevideoPenarol
10
Primera División - Apertura26/06/2022
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
01
Primera División - Apertura09/04/2022
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
21

Recent Form

Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo
5W3D2L
10/10/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoLiverpool Montevideo
11
D03/10/2026
Liverpool MontevideoProgreso
32
W27/09/2026
Central EspanolLiverpool Montevideo
12
W
23/09/2026
Liverpool MontevideoColón
30
W
21/09/2026
Liverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo
00
D
15/09/2026
Atletico TorqueLiverpool Montevideo
31
L
07/09/2026
Liverpool MontevideoBoston River
10
W
02/09/2026
Liverpool MontevideoBoston River
01
L
31/08/2026
Cerro LargoLiverpool Montevideo
11
D
27/08/2026
FenixLiverpool Montevideo
02
W
PenarolPenarol
5W4D1L
10/10/2026
PenarolProgreso
11
D05/10/2026
Racing MontevideoPenarol
01
W
01/10/2026
Atletico TorquePenarol
11
D
26/09/2026
PenarolBoston River
21
W
24/09/2026
DanubioPenarol
11
D
19/09/2026
CerroPenarol
12
W
14/09/2026
PenarolAlbion FC
31
W
05/09/2026
DanubioPenarol
04
W
03/09/2026
AtenasPenarol
22
D
30/08/2026
PenarolClub Nacional
01
L

Referee Profile

Esteban Ostojich179 matches

6.62Cards per match
6.24Yellow cards per match
0.38Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Esteban Ostojich6.62
Other referees5.18

6.62 cards a match, 1.44 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.18).

Cards come from 110 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol34198751:27+2464DLWLW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque341861057:40+1760DLDLL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional331841151:40+1158LLWWL
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo341512742:30+1257DWWWD
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo331411844:31+1353WLDDL
7WanderersWanderers341481241:43-250LLLWL
8Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
9JuventudJuventud3410111337:41-441DWLLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo349101532:38-637LDDWL
12Boston RiverBoston River341071733:45-1237WLWWL
13CerroCerro341071728:51-2337DDWLW
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting348121433:43-1036DWLDD
15ProgresoProgreso341051931:47-1635WLLDD
16DanubioDanubio346141428:43-1532DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3451:2764
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3457:4060
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3351:4058
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3442:3057
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3344:3153
7WanderersWanderers3441:4350
8Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
9JuventudJuventud3437:4141
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo3432:3837
12Boston RiverBoston River3433:4537
13CerroCerro3428:5137
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3433:4336
15ProgresoProgreso3431:4735
16DanubioDanubio3428:4332

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol71431414117:61+56143DLWLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional70421414127:73+54137LLWWL
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7032221695:68+27118WLDDL
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7129231981:68+13110DWWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71311624111:91+20109DLDLL
7JuventudJuventud7128182582:80+2102DWLLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7126192675:81-697DWLDD
9Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
10Boston RiverBoston River7124202783:84-192WLWWL
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7121232773:79-686LDDWL
12CerroCerro7122183161:93-3283DDWLW
13WanderersWanderers7120213066:90-2481LLLWL
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
15DanubioDanubio7116272869:84-1575DDDLD
16ProgresoProgreso7120143769:107-3874WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol71117:61143
2Club NacionalClub Nacional70127:73137
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7095:68118
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7181:68110
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71111:91109
7JuventudJuventud7182:80102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7175:8197
9Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
10Boston RiverBoston River7183:8492
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7173:7986
12CerroCerro7161:9383
13WanderersWanderers7166:9081
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
15DanubioDanubio7169:8475
16ProgresoProgreso7169:10774

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916DLWLW
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LDDWL
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110DWWWD
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509WLDDL
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409LDWWD
6CerroCerro73046:10-49DDWLW
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36DWLDD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55WLWWL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931DWWWD
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829DWWLW
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWDDW
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727DLWLW
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124LDWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623DLDLL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522LLWWL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221DWLDD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220WLDDL
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520LLLWL
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418DDDLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LDDWL
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617WLWWL
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DWLLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110WLLDD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610DDWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1281324:13+1125DLDLL
2Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1173119:8+1124WLDDL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1172217:11+623LLWWL
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1263318:10+821DWWLW
5PenarolPenarol1264216:8+821DLWLW
6ProgresoProgreso1261513:13019WLLDD
7JuventudJuventud1246212:8+418DWLLL
8CerroCerro1253414:17-318DDWLW
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1244415:13+216DWWWD
10Boston RiverBoston River1243514:15-115WLWWL
11WanderersWanderers1243513:18-515LLLWL
12Albion FCAlbion FC1240815:20-512WWDDW
13DanubioDanubio122466:13-710DDDLD
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo121659:14-59LDDWL
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1223714:23-99DWLDD
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol121296:21-155LDWWD
#TeamMPGPts
1Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1224:1325
2Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1119:824
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1117:1123
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1218:1021
5PenarolPenarol1216:821
6ProgresoProgreso1213:1319
7JuventudJuventud1212:818
8CerroCerro1214:1718
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1215:1316
10Boston RiverBoston River1214:1515
11WanderersWanderers1213:1815
12Albion FCAlbion FC1215:2012
13DanubioDanubio126:1310
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo129:149
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1214:239
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol126:215
PromotionRelegation

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About the Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol forecast

The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol in the Primera División table

In the Primera División table, Penarol are 1st and Liverpool Montevideo 6th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: Liverpool Montevideo 44-31, Penarol 51-27. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.