Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso Prediction
Uruguay · Clausura - 9
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.16
SignalSTRONGModel60%SurpriseMediumGap-6.1%
Liverpool Montevideo Rest
6 days
Progreso Rest
7 days
Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso: the result in context
Liverpool Montevideo beat Progreso 3-2 in the Primera División on 3 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.8 a game across 4 meetings, with both teams scoring in 3.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
158%1.65
X24%3.75
218%4.70
Double Chance
1X82%1.16
X242%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%1.80
No49%1.89
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.06 + 0.82 = 2.88
Over 1.576%1.25
Over 2.553%1.84
Over 3.531%3.09
Under 1.524%3.59
Under 2.547%1.93
Under 3.569%1.33
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
10'Lucas acosta
18'Emiliano Alvarez
34'Kevin Lewis
36'Marco Antonio Saravia
38'Santiago Milano Larrosa
45+1'Gianfranco trasante
46'Marco Antonio Saravia INhernan carroso out
46'Gianfranco trasante INNahuel acosta out
48'nahuel lopez
51'Lucas acosta INDiego Romero Lanz out
62'Federico Martinez INRamiro Matias Degregorio out
62'Kevin Lewis INDiego Zabala out
67'Rafael Haller IN
67'Thiago Brizuela INFacundo Barcelo out
68'Rubén Bentancourt
71'Ramiro Matias Degregorio
73'Maximiliano Juambeltz INMatteo copelotti out
77'nahuel lopez
79'Rubén Bentancourt
82'Diego Zabala
83'Ayrton Cougo INgary silva out
88'Diego Zabala
90+2'Gastón Silva
Lineups
Liverpool MontevideoProgreso
4-2-3-1Coach: Tabaré Silva
1M. Bernatene
3S. Strasorier
23E. Castillo
18A. Cayetano
24R. Haller
6S. Milano
16L. Acosta Moreno
34K. Lewis
26T. Brizuela
7F. Martínez
19R. Bentancourt
1R. Bacchia
24E. Álvarez
15M. Martin
6M. Saravia
40A. Cougo
5A. Pinheiro
25R. Cristóbal
16G. Trasante
10N. López
7A. Ocampo
8M. JuambeltzLiverpool Montevideo Substitutes
31F. Barceló67'for Thiago Brizuela
25M. Campaña
10R. Degregorio62'for Federico Martinez71'
17Gonzalo de Mello
15S. Laquidaín
8M. Mir
29E. Olivera
27D. Romero51'for Lucas acosta
22D. Zabala62'for Kevin Lewis82'88'
33J. Pintos
Progreso Substitutes
13H. Carroso46'for Marco Antonio Saravia
30Agustin Codagnone
23M. Copelotti73'for Maximiliano Juambeltz
4L. Couture
17F. de León
12L. Fernández
27G. Silva83'for Ayrton Cougo90+2'
93gary silva83'for Ayrton Cougo90+2'
21S. Bruschi
11N. Acosta46'for Gianfranco trasante
Match Stats
Liverpool MontevideoProgreso 53%Ball Possession47%
3Corner Kicks4
4Yellow Cards4
9Total Shots8
5Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal5
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0
Team Comparison
Liverpool MontevideoProgreso1626Elo Rating 1468
1.47Attack 1.77
2.33Defense 1.88
81%Hit Rate 58%
9.7Shots per Game 8.7
4.9Shots on Target 4.4
4.4Corners per Game 3.3
3.3Cards per Game 2.3
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+158 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals
📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Liverpool Montevideo- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Progreso- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings, all competitions
Liverpool Montevideo2Wins · 50%Draws125%
Progreso1Wins · 25%
1Wins · 25%3.8Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored3 of 4
75%3+ goals3 of 4
Previous meetings
31/03/2026ProgresoLiverpool Montevideo33
27/04/2025ProgresoLiverpool Montevideo02
28/04/2024ProgresoLiverpool Montevideo21
04/06/2021ProgresoLiverpool Montevideo13
Recent Form
Liverpool Montevideo6W2D2L
27/09/2026
Central EspanolLiverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo
Racing MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo
Boston River
Central EspanolLiverpool Montevideo12
W23/09/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Colón
21/09/2026Liverpool MontevideoColón30
WLiverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo00
D15/09/2026
Atletico TorqueLiverpool Montevideo
07/09/2026Atletico TorqueLiverpool Montevideo31
LLiverpool MontevideoBoston River10
W02/09/2026Liverpool MontevideoBoston River
Liverpool MontevideoBoston River01
L31/08/2026
Cerro LargoLiverpool Montevideo
Cerro LargoLiverpool Montevideo11
D27/08/2026
FenixLiverpool Montevideo
FenixLiverpool Montevideo02
W22/08/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
Liverpool MontevideoCerro40
W16/08/2026
Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo
Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo04
WProgreso4W0D6L
26/09/2026ProgresoRacing MontevideoBoston RiverProgreso
Albion FCProgresoProgreso
Deportivo Maldonado
ProgresoRacing Montevideo21
W19/09/2026Boston RiverProgreso12
W16/09/2026Progreso
Club Nacional
ProgresoClub Nacional01
L13/09/2026ProgresoCerro
07/09/2026ProgresoCerro13
LAlbion FCProgreso01
W03/09/2026Albion FCProgreso
Albion FCProgreso21
L29/08/2026Progreso
Danubio
ProgresoDanubio10
W26/08/2026Progreso
CA River Plate
ProgresoCA River Plate02
L23/08/2026Club NacionalProgreso
16/08/2026Club NacionalProgreso10
LProgresoDeportivo Maldonado02
LReferee Profile
5.42Cards per match
5.05Yellow cards per match
0.37Red cards per match
22.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.39 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.26).
Cards come from 100 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 64 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 62 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 57:40 | +17 | 60 | DLDLL |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 51:41 | +10 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:30 | +12 | 57 | DWWWD |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 45:31 | +14 | 56 | LWLDD |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 41:43 | -2 | 50 | LLLWL |
| 8 | Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 46 | WWDDW |
| 9 |  Juventud | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 37:41 | -4 | 41 | DWLLL |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 | LDWWD |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:38 | -6 | 37 | LDDWL |
| 12 | Boston River | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33:45 | -12 | 37 | WLWWL |
| 13 | Cerro | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 28:51 | -23 | 37 | DDWLW |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 33:43 | -10 | 36 | DWLDD |
| 15 | Progreso | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 31:47 | -16 | 35 | WLLDD |
| 16 | Danubio | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 28:43 | -15 | 32 | DDDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 34 | 51:27 | 64 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 34 | 57:40 | 60 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 34 | 51:41 | 58 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 34 | 42:30 | 57 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 34 | 45:31 | 56 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 34 | 41:43 | 50 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 34 | 47:44 | 46 |
| 9 | Juventud | 34 | 37:41 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 34 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 34 | 32:38 | 37 |
| 12 | Boston River | 34 | 33:45 | 37 |
| 13 | Cerro | 34 | 28:51 | 37 |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 34 | 33:43 | 36 |
| 15 | Progreso | 34 | 31:47 | 35 |
| 16 | Danubio | 34 | 28:43 | 32 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 71 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 117:61 | +56 | 143 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 71 | 42 | 14 | 15 | 127:74 | +53 | 137 | WLLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 62 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 71 | 33 | 22 | 16 | 96:68 | +28 | 121 | LWLDD |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 29 | 23 | 19 | 81:68 | +13 | 110 | DWWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 71 | 31 | 16 | 24 | 111:91 | +20 | 109 | DLDLL |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 28 | 18 | 25 | 82:80 | +2 | 102 | DWLLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 26 | 19 | 26 | 75:81 | -6 | 97 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 46 | WWDDW |
| 10 | Boston River | 71 | 24 | 20 | 27 | 83:84 | -1 | 92 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 71 | 21 | 23 | 27 | 73:79 | -6 | 86 | LDDWL |
| 12 | Cerro | 71 | 22 | 18 | 31 | 61:93 | -32 | 83 | DDWLW |
| 13 | Wanderers | 71 | 20 | 21 | 30 | 66:90 | -24 | 81 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 | LDWWD |
| 15 | Danubio | 71 | 16 | 27 | 28 | 69:84 | -15 | 75 | DDDLD |
| 16 | Progreso | 71 | 20 | 14 | 37 | 69:107 | -38 | 74 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 71 | 117:61 | 143 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 71 | 127:74 | 137 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 71 | 96:68 | 121 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 81:68 | 110 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 71 | 111:91 | 109 |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 82:80 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 75:81 | 97 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 34 | 47:44 | 46 |
| 10 | Boston River | 71 | 83:84 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 71 | 73:79 | 86 |
| 12 | Cerro | 71 | 61:93 | 83 |
| 13 | Wanderers | 71 | 66:90 | 81 |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 15 | Danubio | 71 | 69:84 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 71 | 69:107 | 74 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | LDDWL |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | DDWLW |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | DWLDD |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | WLWWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 15 | LLLWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 13 | WLLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | +6 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 0 | 12 | DLDLL |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 6 | WWDDW |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | -5 | 6 | WLLDD |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | -4 | 4 | DDDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 7 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 5:9 | 4 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | DWWWD |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WWDDW |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | DLDLL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | WLLWW |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | LWLDD |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | LLLWL |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | DDDLD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | LDDWL |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | DWLLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | WLLDD |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | DDWLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20:8 | +12 | 27 | LWLDD |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 24:13 | +11 | 25 | DLDLL |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17:12 | +5 | 23 | WLLWW |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:10 | +8 | 21 | DWWLW |
| 5 | Penarol | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:8 | +8 | 21 | DLWLW |
| 6 | Progreso | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13:13 | 0 | 19 | WLLDD |
| 7 | Juventud | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 12:8 | +4 | 18 | DWLLL |
| 8 | Cerro | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 18 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | +2 | 16 | DWWWD |
| 10 | Boston River | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14:15 | -1 | 15 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Wanderers | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 15 | LLLWL |
| 12 | Albion FC | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 12 | WWDDW |
| 13 | Danubio | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6:13 | -7 | 10 | DDDLD |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 15 | Defensor Sporting | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14:23 | -9 | 9 | DWLDD |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6:21 | -15 | 5 | LDWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 12 | 20:8 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 12 | 24:13 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 12 | 17:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 18:10 | 21 |
| 5 | Penarol | 12 | 16:8 | 21 |
| 6 | Progreso | 12 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 7 | Juventud | 12 | 12:8 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro | 12 | 14:17 | 18 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 12 | 15:13 | 16 |
| 10 | Boston River | 12 | 14:15 | 15 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 12 | 13:18 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 12 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 | Danubio | 12 | 6:13 | 10 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 12 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 15 | Defensor Sporting | 12 | 14:23 | 9 |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 12 | 6:21 | 5 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera División matches
- Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado 27/09/26
- Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo 27/09/26
- Defensor Sporting vs Danubio 27/09/26
- Wanderers vs Albion FC 29/09/26
- Albion FC vs Defensor Sporting 03/10/26
- Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol 03/10/26
- Danubio vs Cerro Largo 04/10/26
- Racing Montevideo vs Penarol 05/10/26
About the Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso in the Primera División table
In the Primera División table, Liverpool Montevideo are 6th and Progreso 15th, 21 points apart. League goal record so far: Liverpool Montevideo 45-31, Progreso 31-47. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Progreso have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.