Machida Zelvia vs Urawa Prediction

Machida Zelvia
3-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Urawa
National Olympic Stadium, Tokyo·Hiroki Kasahara, Japan 23/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
Value Analysis
57%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams NOT to Score
1.77
SignalNEUTRALModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+4.9%
Machida Zelvia Rest
8 days
Urawa Rest
8 days

Machida Zelvia vs Urawa: the result in context

Machida Zelvia beat Urawa 3-1 in the J1 League on 23 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Machida Zelvia had won 4 of their previous five, compared with none for Urawa.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them. Urawa tend to win more corners, 7.5 a game to 5.1 for Machida Zelvia.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%1.83
X
29%3.40
2
22%4.40
Double Chance
1X
78%1.19
X2
50%1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%1.95
No
57%1.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.97 + 0.69 = 2.66
Over 1.5
73%1.36
Over 2.5
44%2.15
Over 3.5
24%3.80
Under 1.5
27%3.00
Under 2.5
56%1.67
Under 3.5
76%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3.6 = 9.9
Over 8.5
61%1.60
Over 9.5
50%1.99
Over 10.5
37%2.62
Under 8.5
39%2.19
Under 9.5
50%1.74
Under 10.5
63%1.42
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 3.8
Over 3.5
53%-
Over 4.5
31%-
Under 3.5
47%-
Under 4.5
69%-

Match Events

8'H. NakamuraAssist: M. Duke
45+1'R. WatanabeAssist: T. Kaneko
46'M. Duke INT. Nishimura out
54'T. NishimuraAssist: Y. Soma
61'N. Lavi
68'Matheus Savio INH. Minamino out
68'H. Ueki INT. Seko out
74'R. Watanabe INJ. Hayakawa out
74'K. Hayashi INM. Yamane out
80'N. Lavi INR. Shirasaki out
80'H. Komori INR. Hidano out
83'Y. NaganumaFoul
88'Y. Soma INY. Matsuo out
90+1'H. Mae INH. Shimoda out
90+2'G. Shoji INI. Dresevic out

Lineups

Machida Zelvia
3-4-2-1Coach: Go Kuroda
Urawa
4-4-2Coach: Kwi-jae Cho
Avg rating7.09
Avg rating6.55
Kosei Tani6.91K. Tani
Gen ShojiC7.23G. Shoji
Daihachi Okamura6.250D. Okamura
Yuta Nakayama6.919Y. Nakayama
Hotaka Nakamura7.388H. Nakamura
Hiroyuki Mae7.016H. Mae
Neta Lavi8.231N. Lavi
Takahiro Akimoto6.733T. Akimoto
Mitchell Duke6.915M. Duke
Yuki Soma7.27Y. Soma
Tete Yengi6.999T. Yengi
Shusaku Nishikawa6.91S. Nishikawa
Kotaro Hayashi6.218K. Hayashi
Danilo Boza6.33D. Boza
Yuta MiyamotoC6.52Y. Miyamoto
Yoichi Naganuma5.988Y. Naganuma
Takuro Kaneko7.27T. Kaneko
Kaito Yasui6.725K. Yasui
Ueki Hayate6.537U. Hayate
Ryoma Watanabe6.913R. Watanabe
Hiiro Komori6.017H. Komori
Matheus Sávio6.710M. Sávio

Machida Zelvia Substitutes

13Tatsuya Morita
5Ibrahim Drešević90+2'for G. Shoji
34Futa Tokumura
6Henry Heroki Mochizuki
14Yusuke Matsuo88'for Y. Soma
8Keiya Sento
23Ryohei Shirasaki80'for N. Lavi
18Hokuto Shimoda90+1'for H. Mae
20Takuma Nishimura46'for M. Duke54'7.7

Urawa Substitutes

23Koki Fukui
32Eiichi Katayama
6Miki Yamane74'for K. Hayashi6.5
39Jumpei Hayakawa74'for R. Watanabe6.7
12Tatsuki Seko68'for H. Ueki6.9
8Kota Mizunuma
42Harumi Minamino68'for Matheus Savio6.3
36Renji Hidano80'for H. Komori
45Ado Onaiwu

Match Stats

Machida ZelviaUrawa
38%Ball Possession62%
1Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots22
7Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal12
9Shots Inside Box10
4Shots Outside Box12
0Blocked Shots7
10Fouls9
2Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves4
346Total Passes586
266Passes Accurate504
77%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
UrawaUrawa
1755Elo Rating 1610
1.44Attack 1.06
2.73Defense 1.36
61%Hit Rate 50%
14.6Shots per Game 19.4
5.7Shots on Target 3.6
5.1Corners per Game 7.5
1.1Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+145 Elo
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
UrawaUrawa
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia3Wins · 50%
Draws233%
UrawaUrawa1Wins · 17%
2.2Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

J1 League22/05/2026
Machida ZelviaUrawa
10
J1 League22/03/2026
UrawaMachida Zelvia
12
J1 League25/10/2025
UrawaMachida Zelvia
00
J1 League13/04/2025
Machida ZelviaUrawa
02
J1 League31/08/2024
Machida ZelviaUrawa
22
J1 League26/05/2024
UrawaMachida Zelvia
12

Recent Form

Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
8W1D1L
15/08/2026
JEF United ChibaMachida Zelvia
04
W
08/08/2026
FC TokyoMachida Zelvia
15
W
18/07/2026
Machida ZelviaFujieda MYFC
21
W
06/06/2026
Machida ZelviaNagoya Grampus
2010
W
30/05/2026
Nagoya GrampusMachida Zelvia
22
D
22/05/2026
Machida ZelviaUrawa
10
W
17/05/2026
Kawasaki FrontaleMachida Zelvia
5141
L
13/05/2026
Machida ZelviaTokyo Verdy
4020
W
10/05/2026
JEF United ChibaMachida Zelvia
02
W
06/05/2026
Machida ZelviaYokohama F. Marinos
20
W
UrawaUrawa
2W2D6L
15/08/2026
UrawaSanfrecce Hiroshima
14
L
07/08/2026
Gamba OsakaUrawa
43
L
01/08/2026
UrawaOmiya Ardija
22
D
17/07/2026
FC RyukyuUrawa
54
L
06/06/2026
UrawaFagiano Okayama
02
L
31/05/2026
Fagiano OkayamaUrawa
11
D
22/05/2026
Machida ZelviaUrawa
10
L
16/05/2026
UrawaFC Tokyo
90100
L
09/05/2026
Mito HollyhockUrawa
14
W
06/05/2026
Kashiwa ReysolUrawa
01
W

Referee Profile

Hiroki Kasahara148 matches

2.91Cards per match
2.78Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
22.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Hiroki Kasahara2.91
Other referees2.47

2.91 cards a match, 0.44 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.47).

Cards come from 101 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC TokyoFC Tokyo14103133:8+2533WWWDW
2Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol14101331:20+1131WWWDL
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1493232:10+2230DWWLW
4Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1485130:10+2029DDDWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1483323:14+927DWDLW
6KashimaKashima1472529:24+523LWLDW
7Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1457221:15+622DWDDD
8Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1464428:24+422LLWWW
9UrawaUrawa1471623:29-622DLWWW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1452716:22-617DLLWL
11Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1445516:25-917WLDDL
12Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1444619:23-416WWDDL
13Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1442815:23-814LLDDW
14Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy1435612:22-1014WWWDL
15Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1442810:23-1314LLLLD
16V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1434717:22-513DLLWL
17JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1434716:24-813WWDLD
18Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1426616:24-812LDDWD
19Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1423912:26-149LLLLL
20Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka14221014:25-118DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC TokyoFC Tokyo1433:833
2Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1431:2031
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1432:1030
4Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1430:1029
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1423:1427
6KashimaKashima1429:2423
7Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1421:1522
8Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1428:2422
9UrawaUrawa1423:2922
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1416:2217
11Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1416:2517
12Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1419:2316
13Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1415:2314
14Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy1412:2214
15Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1410:2314
16V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1417:2213
17JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1416:2413
18Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1416:2412
19Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1412:269
20Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1414:258
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Machida Zelvia vs Urawa forecast

The forecasts for this J1 League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Machida Zelvia and Urawa in the J1 League table

In the J1 League table, Machida Zelvia are 4th and Urawa 9th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Machida Zelvia 30-10, Urawa 23-29. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Machida Zelvia have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.