Mallorca vs Almeria Prediction

Mallorca
0-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Almeria
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Parma·Daniel Palencia Caballero 27/09/2026
MallorcaMallorca
0-1
Finished
AlmeriaAlmeria

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.27
SignalHIGHModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+1.1%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.70
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+7.2%
Mallorca Rest
8 days
Almeria Rest
6 days

Mallorca vs Almeria: the result in context

Almeria beat Mallorca 1-0 in the Segunda División on 27 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 6 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%2.05
X
30%3.20
2
19%3.70
Double Chance
1X
82%1.27
X2
49%1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.70
No
49%2.01
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.55 + 0.69 = 2.24
Over 1.5
71%1.29
Over 2.5
46%1.95
Over 3.5
25%3.30
Under 1.5
29%3.40
Under 2.5
54%1.84
Under 3.5
75%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 3.7 = 9.9
Over 8.5
67%1.57
Over 9.5
55%1.97
Over 10.5
44%2.54
Under 8.5
33%2.20
Under 9.5
45%1.73
Under 10.5
56%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.5 = 4.6
Over 3.5
67%-
Over 4.5
48%1.69
Under 3.5
33%-
Under 4.5
52%2.08

Match Events

26'Miguel Calatayud GarcíaFoul
32'Antoniu Roca INJosep Cerda out
35'Miguel De La Fuente
37'Javier Muñoz JiménezFoul
45'Manuel Morlanes INSergi Darder out
62'Adrian Liso INArnau Puigmal out
64'Josep Cerda
65'Adrián Embarba INMarcos Luna out
71'Aboubaka SoumahoroFoul
74'Aboubaka Soumahoro INAlberto Moreno out
74'Miguel Calatayud García INAdam Buksa out
79'Quim junyent INNicolás Melamed Ribaudo out
79'Daijiro Chirino INÁlex Sola out
83'Andrés FernándezTime wasting
86'Red card cancelledAntonio José Raíllo Arenas
86'Antonio José Raíllo ArenasFoul
90+4'Pablo TorreFoul
90+6'Federico BoniniFoul
90+8'John DonaldDissent

Lineups

Mallorca
4-1-4-1Coach: Luis García
Almeria
4-2-3-1Coach: Xavier García Pimienta
Avg rating6.40
Avg rating7.04
Arnau Tenas6.91A. Tenas
M. Calatayud6.134M. Calatayud
John Nwankwo6.815J. Nwankwo
Raíllo6.721Raíllo
A. Souhmahoro6.422A. Souhmahoro
Manu Morlanes6.58M. Morlanes
Antoniu Roca6.323A. Roca
Pablo Torre6.220P. Torre
Álex Sala7.27Á. Sala
Adrian Liso5.933A. Liso
Fuentes6.518Fuentes
Andrés Fernández8.21A. Fernández
D. Chirino7.022D. Chirino
Chumi7.521Chumi
F. Bonini7.018F. Bonini
Álex Muñoz7.13Á. Muñoz
Javi Muñoz7.214J. Muñoz
Mikel Vesga6.26M. Vesga
Quim Junyent6.933Q. Junyent
Sergio Arribas6.611S. Arribas
Adri Embarba6.523A. Embarba
Miguel de la Fuente8.024M. de la Fuente

Mallorca Substitutes

2Guille Fernández
16A. Buksa74'for Miguel Calatayud García6.4
3Toni Lato
4David López
5Alberto Moreno74'for Aboubaka Soumahoro6.6
9Abdón Prats
17Arnau Puigmal62'for Adrian Liso6.4
6Antonio Sánchez
37Toni Dols
10Darder45'for Manuel Morlanes5.8
25Iván Cuéllar
19Josep Cerdà32'for Antoniu Roca64'6.0

Almeria Substitutes

12Léo Baptistão
2Marcos Luna65'for Adrián Embarba7.2
13Fernando Martínez
10Nico Melamed79'for Quim junyent6.8
7Jon Morcillo
32A. Popov
5Jorge Pulido
20Álex Sola79'for Daijiro Chirino6.5
9Thalys
31Á. Yaakobishvili
26K. Kone
15Leonardo Lelo

Match Stats

MallorcaAlmeria
54%Ball Possession46%
6Corner Kicks2
6Yellow Cards3
18Total Shots12
5Shots on Goal3
8Shots off Goal5
10Shots Inside Box8
8Shots Outside Box4
5Blocked Shots4
20Fouls17
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves5
442Total Passes375
377Passes Accurate319
17Free Kicks18

Team Comparison

MallorcaMallorca
AlmeriaAlmeria
1736Elo Rating 1727
1.08Attack 2.51
2.17Defense 1.84
19%Hit Rate 73%
12.7Shots per Game 12.8
3.8Shots on Target 5.0
6.1Corners per Game 4.7
3.9Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

MallorcaMallorca
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AlmeriaAlmeria
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

MallorcaMallorca3Wins · 50%
Draws233%
AlmeriaAlmeria1Wins · 17%
1.8Avg Goals
17%Both teams scored1 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6

Previous meetings

La Liga19/05/2024
MallorcaAlmeria
22
La Liga17/12/2023
AlmeriaMallorca
00
La Liga20/05/2023
AlmeriaMallorca
30
La Liga17/09/2022
MallorcaAlmeria
10
Segunda División21/02/2021
MallorcaAlmeria
20
Segunda División03/12/2020
AlmeriaMallorca
01

Recent Form

MallorcaMallorca
7W2D1L
19/09/2026
Real Sociedad IIMallorca
01
W
13/09/2026
MallorcaSabadell
20
W
05/09/2026
EldenseMallorca
00
D
30/08/2026
MallorcaAD Ceuta FC
30
W
24/08/2026
Granada CFMallorca
20
L
15/08/2026
MallorcaValladolid
20
W
08/08/2026
MallorcaSV Elversberg
11
D
05/08/2026
MallorcaParis Saint Germain
30
W
30/07/2026
MallorcaAl-Ittihad FC
42
W
25/07/2026
MallorcaAl-Fateh
30
W
AlmeriaAlmeria
6W0D4L
20/09/2026
AlmeriaCelta de Vigo II
20
W
12/09/2026
CordobaAlmeria
02
W
06/09/2026
AlmeriaCadiz
32
W
29/08/2026
SabadellAlmeria
10
L
23/08/2026
TenerifeAlmeria
10
L
17/08/2026
AlmeriaEldense
30
W
07/08/2026
CordobaAlmeria
04
W
04/08/2026
Al-NassrAlmeria
02
W
01/08/2026
Real BetisAlmeria
10
L
29/07/2026
Granada CFAlmeria
20
L

Referee Profile

Daniel Palencia Caballero103 matches

5.73Cards per match
5.35Yellow cards per match
0.38Red cards per match
28.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Daniel Palencia Caballero5.73
Other referees5.24

5.73 cards a match, 0.49 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.24).

Cards come from 48 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AlmeriaAlmeria1181222:9+1325DWWWW
2CastellónCastellón1072118:4+1423WLDWW
3EibarEibar1171320:13+722LDLWW
4GironaGirona1163222:10+1221WWDDW
5Granada CFGranada CF1162318:14+420WWWWL
6MallorcaMallorca1154213:6+719DDWDL
7Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1061311:9+219WWWLW
8OviedoOviedo1153315:12+318DWWLW
9BurgosBurgos1052313:10+317WLLWW
10SabadellSabadell1145211:9+217DLWDD
11CordobaCordoba1150617:20-315WWLWL
12TenerifeTenerife1135313:15-214DDDLD
13EldenseEldense1142513:15-214LWWWL
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1142514:19-514WLLDL
15ValladolidValladolid1133516:16012LLWDW
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1133516:21-512LDWLD
17LeganesLeganes113357:16-912DLLLL
18CadizCadiz1124514:14010WLLWD
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1031613:17-410LWDWL
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1122714:22-88LLLLL
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1112810:25-155LLLDW
22AlbaceteAlbacete111198:22-144WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AlmeriaAlmeria1122:925
2CastellónCastellón1018:423
3EibarEibar1120:1322
4GironaGirona1122:1021
5Granada CFGranada CF1118:1420
6MallorcaMallorca1113:619
7Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1011:919
8OviedoOviedo1115:1218
9BurgosBurgos1013:1017
10SabadellSabadell1111:917
11CordobaCordoba1117:2015
12TenerifeTenerife1113:1514
13EldenseEldense1113:1514
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1114:1914
15ValladolidValladolid1116:1612
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1116:2112
17LeganesLeganes117:1612
18CadizCadiz1114:1410
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1013:1710
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1114:228
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1110:255
22AlbaceteAlbacete118:224
PromotionRelegation

About the Mallorca vs Almeria forecast

The forecasts for this Segunda División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Mallorca and Almeria in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Almeria are 1st and Mallorca 6th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Mallorca 13-6, Almeria 22-9. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Almeria have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.