Marseille vs Strasbourg Prediction

Marseille
4-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Strasbourg
CEPAC Vélodrome, Marseille·Ruddy Buquet, France 21/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Over 3.5
1.73
SignalSOLIDModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+9.5%
Marseille Rest
7 days
Strasbourg Rest
5 days

Marseille vs Strasbourg: result, form and history

Marseille beat Strasbourg 4-0 in the Ligue 1 on 21 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Marseille had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Strasbourg.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%1.73
X
27%4.05
2
24%4.34
Double Chance
1X
76%1.22
X2
50%2.12
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.53
No
43%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.44 + 1.43 = 2.87
Over 1.5
77%1.16
Over 2.5
59%1.53
Over 3.5
34%2.33
Under 1.5
23%5.00
Under 2.5
41%2.47
Under 3.5
66%1.61
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.3 = 9.1
Over 8.5
57%1.54
Over 9.5
46%1.94
Over 10.5
32%2.46
Under 8.5
43%2.30
Under 9.5
54%1.80
Under 10.5
68%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.1 = 4.5
Over 3.5
63%1.73
Over 4.5
47%2.42
Under 3.5
37%2.02
Under 4.5
53%1.50

Match Events

46'A. GouiriAssist: A. Gomes
48'Samuel Amo-AmeyawFoul
58'Card upgradeSamir El Mourabet
59'Samir El MourabetViolent conduct
61'Sékou MaraFoul
65'Penalty confirmedIgor Paixão
68'A. Gouiri(Penalty)
69'S. Amo-Ameyaw ING. Reyna out
69'D. Sousa INP. Demba out
69'S. Mara INJ. Ortega out
75'C. Egan-Riley INN. Aguerd out
79'Nayef AguerdFoul
79'G. Antwi INM. Del Blanco out
79'S. Nanasi INF. Balde out
83'G. Kondogbia IND. Cornelius out
83'H. Abdelli INT. Nnadi out
83'A. Harit INK. Abdallah out
89'K. Abdallah
90'P. Hojbjerg
90+1'A. Gomes INN. Maupay out

Lineups

Marseille
4-2-3-1Coach: Bruno Genesio
Strasbourg
4-2-3-1Coach: Hugo Oliveira
Avg rating7.21
Avg rating6.14
J. De Lange6.912J. De Lange
T. WeahC6.622T. Weah
C. Egan-Riley7.24C. Egan-Riley
G. Kondogbia7.319G. Kondogbia
Emerson7.233Emerson
H. Abdelli7.58H. Abdelli
P. Hojbjerg8.323P. Hojbjerg
A. Harit6.377A. Harit
A. Gomes7.67A. Gomes
I. Paixao7.014I. Paixao
A. Gouiri8.09A. Gouiri
F. Jorgensen6.31F. Jorgensen
G. DoueC5.322G. Doue
A. Omobamidele6.52A. Omobamidele
L. Hogsberg6.024L. Hogsberg
G. Antwi6.316G. Antwi
D. Sousa5.923D. Sousa
S. El Mourabet5.329S. El Mourabet
S. Amo-Ameyaw6.27S. Amo-Ameyaw
S. Nanasi6.311S. Nanasi
G. Yassine6.580G. Yassine
S. Mara6.214S. Mara

Marseille Substitutes

92T. Vermot
21N. Aguerd75'for C. Egan-Riley79'6.9
13D. Cornelius83'for G. Kondogbia6.6
74K. Bezahaf
25U. Garcia
6T. Nnadi83'for H. Abdelli6.9
43T. Mmadi
48K. Abdallah83'for A. Harit89'7.9
11N. Maupay90+1'for A. Gomes

Strasbourg Substitutes

12M. Piekutowski
4J. Mitchell
10G. Reyna69'for S. Amo-Ameyaw6.3
21P. Demba69'for D. Sousa6.3
17M. Amougou
15M. Del Blanco79'for G. Antwi5.9
19F. Balde79'for S. Nanasi6.3
37G. Kodia
30J. Ortega69'for S. Mara6.7

Match Stats

MarseilleStrasbourg
67%Ball Possession33%
3Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
14Total Shots5
8Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box3
5Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots0
6Fouls12
2Goalkeeper Saves4
687Total Passes337
626Passes Accurate286
91%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

MarseilleMarseille
StrasbourgStrasbourg
1799Elo Rating 1744
2.21Attack 1.72
1.97Defense 0.60
83%Hit Rate 23%
12.6Shots per Game 13.5
3.5Shots on Target 5.0
3.6Corners per Game 3.3
2.1Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.88 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

MarseilleMarseille
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
StrasbourgStrasbourg
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

MarseilleMarseille3Wins · 30%
Draws660%
StrasbourgStrasbourg1Wins · 10%
2.8Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10

Previous meetings

Ligue 114/02/2026
MarseilleStrasbourg
22
Ligue 126/09/2025
StrasbourgMarseille
12
Ligue 119/01/2025
MarseilleStrasbourg
11
Ligue 129/09/2024
StrasbourgMarseille
10
Ligue 112/01/2024
MarseilleStrasbourg
11
Ligue 125/11/2023
StrasbourgMarseille
11
Ligue 112/03/2023
MarseilleStrasbourg
22
Ligue 129/10/2022
StrasbourgMarseille
22
Ligue 121/05/2022
MarseilleStrasbourg
40
Ligue 112/12/2021
StrasbourgMarseille
02

Recent Form

MarseilleMarseille
5W1D4L
14/08/2026
MarseilleAtletico Madrid
12
L
09/08/2026
MarseilleAthletic Club
31
W
30/07/2026
MarseilleNimes
21
W
17/05/2026
MarseilleRennes
31
W
10/05/2026
Le HavreMarseille
01
W
02/05/2026
NantesMarseille
30
L
26/04/2026
MarseilleNice
11
D
18/04/2026
LorientMarseille
20
L
10/04/2026
MarseilleMetz
31
W
05/04/2026
MonacoMarseille
21
L
StrasbourgStrasbourg
3W1D6L
16/08/2026
NewcastleStrasbourg
2131
W
08/08/2026
SC FreiburgStrasbourg
20
L
04/08/2026
StrasbourgSV Elversberg
25
L
01/08/2026
BrightonStrasbourg
43
L
25/07/2026
StrasbourgBlackburn
02
L
20/07/2026
Sporting CPStrasbourg
70
L
17/05/2026
StrasbourgMonaco
54
W
13/05/2026
Stade Brestois 29Strasbourg
12
W
10/05/2026
AngersStrasbourg
11
D
07/05/2026
StrasbourgRayo Vallecano
01
L

Referee Profile

Ruddy Buquet187 matches

4.10Cards per match
3.86Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
23.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ruddy Buquet4.10
Other referees3.97

4.10 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.97).

Cards come from 173 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1072122:10+1223WWWWW
2LilleLille1063114:7+721WWDDW
3Paris FCParis FC1062217:10+720WWLWL
4MarseilleMarseille1060422:14+818WWWWW
5LyonLyon1052315:9+617LWLWL
6NiceNice1052315:12+317WWWLW
7MonacoMonaco1044213:11+216DLDLD
8RennesRennes1051421:21016LLWLW
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291043318:12+615WWLDW
10LorientLorient104339:8+115WLDWW
11LensLens1041517:15+213LLWWW
12ToulouseToulouse1034315:14+113WLDWD
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1031618:22-410LWLLL
14AuxerreAuxerre1031613:24-1110LLDWL
15Le MansLe Mans1015412:19-78DLDLL
16AngersAngers102269:19-108LLDLL
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes102267:17-108LWDLL
18Le HavreLe Havre100289:22-132LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1022:1023
2LilleLille1014:721
3Paris FCParis FC1017:1020
4MarseilleMarseille1022:1418
5LyonLyon1015:917
6NiceNice1015:1217
7MonacoMonaco1013:1116
8RennesRennes1021:2116
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291018:1215
10LorientLorient109:815
11LensLens1017:1513
12ToulouseToulouse1015:1413
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1018:2210
14AuxerreAuxerre1013:2410
15Le MansLe Mans1012:198
16AngersAngers109:198
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes107:178
18Le HavreLe Havre109:222
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Marseille vs Strasbourg forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Marseille and Strasbourg in the Ligue 1 table

In the Ligue 1 table, Marseille are 4th and Strasbourg 13th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Marseille 22-14, Strasbourg 18-22. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Marseille have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.