Lens vs Auxerre Prediction

Lens
5-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Auxerre
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens·Mathieu Vernice, France 22/08/2026
LensLens
5-2
Finished
AuxerreAuxerre

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.59
SignalSOLIDModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+3.1%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.59
SignalHIGHModel65%SurpriseMediumGap+12.6%
Lens Rest
5 days
Auxerre Rest
13 days

Lens vs Auxerre: the result in context

Lens beat Auxerre 5-2 in the Ligue 1 on 22 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Lens have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 2.8 goals a game. Referee Mathieu Vernice averages 4.50 cards a game, 0.64 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
69%1.59
X
18%4.32
2
13%5.25
Double Chance
1X
87%1.17
X2
31%2.37
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.67
No
43%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.18 + 0.91 = 3.09
Over 1.5
84%1.19
Over 2.5
59%1.64
Over 3.5
36%2.58
Under 1.5
16%4.45
Under 2.5
41%2.25
Under 3.5
64%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 4 = 9.4
Over 8.5
60%1.44
Over 9.5
46%1.75
Over 10.5
35%2.21
Under 8.5
40%2.57
Under 9.5
54%2.00
Under 10.5
65%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.6 = 4.2
Over 3.5
57%1.35
Over 4.5
35%1.80
Under 3.5
43%2.86
Under 4.5
65%1.93

Match Events

12'F. Thauvin(Penalty)
35'C. MakossoTripping
49'F. IvanovicAssist: A. Sima
54'S. AbdulhamidAssist: F. Thauvin
61'D. Namaso(Penalty)
62'S. Abdulhamid INM. Skoras out
62'F. Ivanovic INT. Hazard out
66'I. GaniouAssist: M. Skoras
67'R. Faivre INL. Dioubate out
67'A. Zossou INR. Mandengue out
69'L. SyAssist: R. Mandengue
71'A. Sima INO. Edouard out
71'M. Cuisance INA. Haidara out
77'N. Ahamada INE. Legros out
77'D. Namaso INL. Coulibaly out
79'I. Ganiou INA. Bulatovic out
84'M. NawrockiHolding
86'L. DioubateUnsportsmanlike conduct
87'A. Piedfort INJ. Casimir out
88'F. Thauvin(Penalty)

Lineups

Lens
3-4-2-1Coach: Dino Toppmoller
Auxerre
4-3-3Coach: Christophe Pelissier
Avg rating6.97
Avg rating6.27
Robin Risser6.940R. Risser
Maik Nawrocki6.33M. Nawrocki
Ismaelo Ganiou7.525I. Ganiou
Souleymane Sagnan7.231S. Sagnan
Saud Abdulhamid6.723S. Abdulhamid
Michaël Cuisance6.627M. Cuisance
Yassine Titraoui6.68Y. Titraoui
Matthieu Udol6.914M. Udol
Florian ThauvinC6.910F. Thauvin
Franjo Ivanović8.229F. Ivanović
Abdallah Sima6.919A. Sima
Mamadou Diop6.523M. Diop
Lamine Sy5.327L. Sy
Sinaly Diomandé6.520S. Diomandé
Christ Makosso5.215C. Makosso
Clement Akpa6.792C. Akpa
Naouirou Ahamada6.78N. Ahamada
Arthur Piedfort6.546A. Piedfort
Kévin DanoisC6.75K. Danois
Romain Faivre5.921R. Faivre
Danny Namaso6.310D. Namaso
Aristide Zossou6.777A. Zossou

Lens Substitutes

16Mathieu Gorgelin
38Mezian Mesloub
5Andrija Bulatović79'for I. Ganiou
22Michał Skóraś62'for S. Abdulhamid
21Amadou Haidara71'for M. Cuisance
9Thorgan Hazard62'for F. Ivanovic
18Rayan Fofana
7Florian Sotoca
11Odsonne Édouard71'for A. Sima

Auxerre Substitutes

1Paul Nardi
22Fredrik Oppegård
35Elikya Legros77'for N. Ahamada
45Salimou Danfakha
18Lasso Coulibaly77'for D. Namaso
7Josué Casimir87'for A. Piedfort
32Rayan Mandengue
36Tidiane Devernois
34Lamfia Dioubaté67'for R. Faivre86'

Match Stats

LensAuxerre
53%Ball Possession47%
4Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
12Total Shots10
9Shots on Goal4
2Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box5
2Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots3
6Fouls21
1Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves4
470Total Passes416
415Passes Accurate338
88%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

LensLens
AuxerreAuxerre
1800Elo Rating 1689
1.08Attack 1.53
0.00Defense 0.42
34%Hit Rate 34%
10.8Shots per Game 10.7
3.7Shots on Target 4.2
4.4Corners per Game 4.3
2.0Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+111 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.09 goals
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

LensLens
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AuxerreAuxerre
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

LensLens4Wins · 66%
Draws117%
AuxerreAuxerre1Wins · 17%
2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
67%3+ goals4 of 6

Previous meetings

Ligue 117/01/2026
LensAuxerre
10
Ligue 104/10/2025
AuxerreLens
12
Ligue 127/04/2025
LensAuxerre
04
Ligue 114/12/2024
AuxerreLens
22
Ligue 103/06/2023
AuxerreLens
13
Ligue 114/01/2023
LensAuxerre
10

Recent Form

LensLens
6W2D2L
16/08/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
10
W
08/08/2026
LensSunderland
02
L
01/08/2026
LensVillarreal
31
W
25/07/2026
LensCharleroi
22
D
18/07/2026
LensBoulogne
41
W
22/05/2026
LensNice
31
W
17/05/2026
LyonLens
04
W
13/05/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
02
L
08/05/2026
LensNantes
10
W
02/05/2026
NiceLens
11
D
AuxerreAuxerre
4W4D2L
08/08/2026
AuxerreEstac Troyes
11
D
01/08/2026
SochauxAuxerre
11
D
25/07/2026
AuxerreOrleans
12
L
18/07/2026
AuxerreSt Maur Lusitanos
52
W
17/05/2026
LilleAuxerre
02
W
10/05/2026
AuxerreNice
21
W
03/05/2026
AuxerreAngers
31
W
25/04/2026
LyonAuxerre
32
L
19/04/2026
MonacoAuxerre
22
D
11/04/2026
AuxerreNantes
00
D

Referee Profile

Mathieu Vernice140 matches

4.50Cards per match
4.21Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
28.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mathieu Vernice4.50
Other referees3.86

4.50 cards a match, 0.64 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.86).

Cards come from 127 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1072122:10+1223WWWWW
2LilleLille1063114:7+721WWDDW
3Paris FCParis FC1062217:10+720WWLWL
4MarseilleMarseille1060422:14+818WWWWW
5LyonLyon1052315:9+617LWLWL
6NiceNice1052315:12+317WWWLW
7MonacoMonaco1044213:11+216DLDLD
8RennesRennes1051421:21016LLWLW
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291043318:12+615WWLDW
10LorientLorient104339:8+115WLDWW
11LensLens1041517:15+213LLWWW
12ToulouseToulouse1034315:14+113WLDWD
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1031618:22-410LWLLL
14AuxerreAuxerre1031613:24-1110LLDWL
15Le MansLe Mans1015412:19-78DLDLL
16AngersAngers102269:19-108LLDLL
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes102267:17-108LWDLL
18Le HavreLe Havre100289:22-132LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1022:1023
2LilleLille1014:721
3Paris FCParis FC1017:1020
4MarseilleMarseille1022:1418
5LyonLyon1015:917
6NiceNice1015:1217
7MonacoMonaco1013:1116
8RennesRennes1021:2116
9Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291018:1215
10LorientLorient109:815
11LensLens1017:1513
12ToulouseToulouse1015:1413
13StrasbourgStrasbourg1018:2210
14AuxerreAuxerre1013:2410
15Le MansLe Mans1012:198
16AngersAngers109:198
17Estac TroyesEstac Troyes107:178
18Le HavreLe Havre109:222
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Lens vs Auxerre forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Lens and Auxerre in the Ligue 1 table

In the Ligue 1 table, Lens are 11th and Auxerre 14th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Lens 17-15, Auxerre 13-24. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.