USA vs Australia Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 2
Cup
USA
2-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Australia
Lumen Field, Seattle·Felix Zwayer, Germany 19/06/2026
USAUSA
2-0
Finished
AustraliaAustralia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel28%SurpriseMediumGap+5.0%
USA Rest
6 days
Australia Rest
5 days

USA vs Australia: result, form and history

USA beat Australia 2-0 in the World Cup on 19 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Felix Zwayer averages 4.95 cards a game, 0.76 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
46%1.64
X
24%4.20
2
30%5.00
Double Chance
1X
70%1.18
X2
54%2.27
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.92
No
47%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.23 + 1.3 = 2.53
Over 1.5
73%1.28
Over 2.5
46%1.91
Over 3.5
24%3.25
Under 1.5
27%3.61
Under 2.5
54%1.92
Under 3.5
76%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
52%1.81
Over 9.5
47%2.27
Over 10.5
34%3.04
Under 8.5
48%1.95
Under 9.5
53%1.58
Under 10.5
66%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 1.7 = 3.8
Over 3.5
59%2.25
Over 4.5
35%3.52
Under 3.5
41%1.57
Under 4.5
65%1.25

Match Events

11'C. BurgessOG
16'J. BosRoughing
32'A. CircatiTripping
43'A. Freeman
46'C. Burgess INJ. Geria out
46'N. Velupillay INC. Metcalfe out
46'M. Toure INN. Irankunda out
56'A. RobinsonTripping
61'M. Leckie INC. Volpato out
74'R. Pepi INS. Berhalter out
78'P. Okon-Engstler INJ. Irvine out
80'S. Dest INJ. Scally out
80'A. Robinson INA. Trusty out
88'H. SouttarUnsportsmanlike conduct
89'F. BalogunUnsportsmanlike conduct
89'J. ItalianoUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+3'C. RichardsImpeding an opponent
90+6'F. Balogun INH. Wright out
90+6'W. McKennie ING. Reyna out

Lineups

USA
3-5-2Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Australia
5-4-1Coach: Tony Popovic
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.43
Matthew Freese6.624M. Freese
Alexander Freeman8.216A. Freeman
Chris Richards7.23C. Richards
Tim ReamC6.913T. Ream
Sergiño Dest6.92S. Dest
Weston McKennie6.98W. McKennie
Tyler Adams6.94T. Adams
Malik Tillman7.317M. Tillman
Antonee Robinson7.35A. Robinson
Folarin Balogun6.520F. Balogun
Ricardo Pepi6.29R. Pepi
Patrick Beach6.318P. Beach
Jacob Italiano6.04J. Italiano
Alessandro Circati7.53A. Circati
Harry SouttarC6.319H. Souttar
Cameron Burgess5.321C. Burgess
Jordan Bos6.35J. Bos
Mathew Leckie6.27M. Leckie
Aiden O'Neill6.613A. O'Neill
Paul Okon-Engstler6.624P. Okon-Engstler
Nishan Velupillay6.223N. Velupillay
Mohamed Touré6.69M. Touré

USA Substitutes

1Matt Turner
25Chris Brady
6Auston Trusty80'for A. Robinson6.3
12Miles Robinson
22Mark McKenzie
23Joe Scally80'for S. Dest6.6
18Maximilian Arfsten
7Giovanni Reyna90+6'for W. McKennie
14Sebastian Berhalter74'for R. Pepi6.6
15Cristian Roldán
11Brenden Aaronson
21Tim Weah
26Alex Zendejas
19Haji Wright90+6'for F. Balogun

Australia Substitutes

6Jason Geria46'for C. Burgess6.7
8Connor Metcalfe46'for N. Velupillay6.3
17Nestory Irankunda46'for M. Toure6.7
20Cristian Volpato61'for M. Leckie6.9
1Mathew Ryan
12Paul Izzo
2Miloš Degenek
16Aziz Behich
25Lucas Herrington
15Kai Trewin
14Cameron Devlin
22Jackson Irvine78'for P. Okon-Engstler6.3
10Ajdin Hrustić
11Awer Mabil
26Tete Yengi

Match Stats

USAAustralia
62%Ball Possession38%
7Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards4
10Total Shots5
2Shots on Goal2
2Shots off Goal3
8Shots Inside Box3
2Shots Outside Box2
6Blocked Shots0
12Fouls16
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves1
523Total Passes310
444Passes Accurate219
85%Pass Accuracy71%

Team Comparison

USAUSA
AustraliaAustralia
1698Elo Rating 1742
2.01Attack 0.88
1.20Defense 2.20
54%Hit Rate 31%
11.1Shots per Game 9.0
3.5Shots on Target 2.9
5.1Corners per Game 3.7
1.6Cards per Game 1.1

AI Insights

📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

USAUSA
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.6 in second half)
AustraliaAustralia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

USAUSA
7W0D3L
13/06/2026
USAParaguay
41
W
06/06/2026
USAGermany
12
L
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
L
03/07/2025
USAGuatemala
21
W
30/06/2025
USACosta Rica
4232
W
23/06/2025
USAHaiti
21
W
20/06/2025
Saudi ArabiaUSA
01
W
16/06/2025
USATrinidad and Tobago
50
W
22/03/2025
CanadaUSA
21
L
AustraliaAustralia
5W4D1L
14/06/2026
AustraliaTürkiye
20
W
06/06/2026
SwitzerlandAustralia
11
D
31/05/2026
MexicoAustralia
10
L
10/06/2025
Saudi ArabiaAustralia
12
W
05/06/2025
AustraliaJapan
10
W
25/03/2025
ChinaAustralia
02
W
20/03/2025
AustraliaIndonesia
51
W
19/11/2024
BahrainAustralia
22
D
14/11/2024
AustraliaSaudi Arabia
00
D
15/10/2024
JapanAustralia
11
D

Referee Profile

Felix Zwayer250 matches

4.95Cards per match
4.79Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Felix Zwayer4.95
Other referees4.19

4.95 cards a match, 0.76 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.19).

Cards come from 245 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1USAUSA32018:4+46LWW
2AustraliaAustralia31112:204DLW
3ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
4TürkiyeTürkiye31023:5-23WLL
#TeamMPGPts
1USAUSA38:46
2AustraliaAustralia32:24
3ParaguayParaguay32:44
4TürkiyeTürkiye33:53

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About the USA vs Australia forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

USA and Australia in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: USA are 1st in the World Cup, 2 points ahead of Australia in 2nd. League goal record so far: USA 8-4, Australia 2-2. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. USA have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. USA and Australia have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.