Spain vs Saudi Arabia Prediction

Spain
4-0
Finished
HT 3-0
Saudi Arabia
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, AtlantaĀ·Raphael Claus, Brazil 21/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.61
SignalGOODModel90%SurpriseMediumGap+9.3%
Spain Rest
6 days
Saudi Arabia Rest
5 days

Spain vs Saudi Arabia: result, form and history

Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4-0 in the World Cup on 21 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Raphael Claus averages 4.34 cards a game, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
76%1.10
X
19%11.00
2
5%23.50
Double Chance
1X
95%1.01
X2
24%7.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.63
No
47%1.44
Goals
Projected Goals: 3.09 + 0.83 = 3.92
Over 1.5
75%1.08
Over 2.5
54%1.35
Over 3.5
34%1.90
Under 1.5
25%6.80
Under 2.5
46%3.15
Under 3.5
66%1.90
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.7 + 2.2 = 8.9
Over 8.5
53%1.45
Over 9.5
44%1.80
Over 10.5
33%2.20
Under 8.5
47%2.58
Under 9.5
56%2.00
Under 10.5
67%1.61
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.5 = 3
Over 3.5
50%2.92
Over 4.5
28%4.20
Under 3.5
50%1.36
Under 4.5
72%1.24

Match Events

10'Lamine YamalAssist: Mikel Oyarzabal
21'Mikel OyarzabalAssist: Aymeric Laporte
24'Mikel OyarzabalAssist: Dani Olmo
30'Salem Al-DawsariFoul
46'Mikel Oyarzabal INFerran Torres out
46'Lamine Yamal INYƩremy Pino out
46'Musab Al Juwayr INAbdullah Al-Hamdan out
46'Abdullah Al-Khaibari INMohamed Kanno out
49'Hassan TambaktiOG
60'Mohamed KannoFoul
60'Abdulelah Al-Amri INAla'a Al-Hejji out
60'Firas Al-Buraikan INMohammed Abu Al-Shamat out
61'Alex Baena INNico Williams out
61'Dani Olmo INMikel Merino out
70'Pedri INFabiƔn Ruiz out
90'Nasser Al-Dawsari INKhalid Al-Ghannam out
90+5'Goal cancelledFerran Torres

Lineups

Spain
4-3-3Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Saudi Arabia
5-4-1Coach: Georgios Donis
Avg rating7.35
Avg rating6.31
Unai Simón7.223U. Simón
Pedro Porro7.312P. Porro
Pau CubarsĆ­7.622P. CubarsĆ­
Aymeric Laporte7.914A. Laporte
Marc Cucurella7.324M. Cucurella
Dani Olmo7.510D. Olmo
RodriC8.316Rodri
Pedri7.020Pedri
Lamine Yamal8.219L. Yamal
Mikel Oyarzabal9.321M. Oyarzabal
Alex Baena7.015A. Baena
Mohammed Al-Owais7.221M. Al-Owais
Saud Abdulhamid6.212S. Abdulhamid
Abdulelah Al-Amri5.34A. Al-Amri
Ali Lajami6.33A. Lajami
Hassan Tambakti5.95H. Tambakti
Moteb Al-Harbi5.324M. Al-Harbi
Musab Al Juwayr6.27M. Al Juwayr
Abdullah Al-Khaibari6.215A. Al-Khaibari
Nasser Al-Dawsari6.36N. Al-Dawsari
Salem Al-DawsariC6.610S. Al-Dawsari
Firas Al-Buraikan6.59F. Al-Buraikan

Spain Substitutes

7Ferran Torres46'for Mikel Oyarzabal6.7
11YƩremy Pino46'for Lamine Yamal6.2
6Mikel Merino61'for Dani Olmo6.7
17Nico Williams61'for Alex Baena6.2
8FabiƔn Ruiz70'for Pedri7.2
1David Raya
13Joan GarcĆ­a
2Marc Pubill
4Eric GarcĆ­a
5Marcos Llorente
3Alejandro Grimaldo
9Pablo Gavi
18MartĆ­n Zubimendi
25Vƭctor MuƱoz
26Borja Iglesias

Saudi Arabia Substitutes

23Mohamed Kanno46'for Abdullah Al-Khaibari60'6.5
19Abdullah Al-Hamdan46'for Musab Al Juwayr6.3
26Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat60'for Firas Al-Buraikan6.9
18Ala'a Al-Hejji60'for Abdulelah Al-Amri6.7
17Khalid Al-Ghannam90'for Nasser Al-Dawsari6.5
1Nawaf Al-Aqidi
22Ahmed Al-Kassar
2Ali Majrashi
13Nawaf Boushal
14Hassan Kadesh
25Jehad Thakri
16Ziyad Aljohani
8Ayman Yahya
11Saleh Al-Shehri
20Sultan Mandash

Match Stats

SpainSaudi Arabia
67%Ball Possession33%
6Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards2
22Total Shots3
8Shots on Goal1
12Shots off Goal1
13Shots Inside Box0
9Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots1
10Fouls2
2Offsides3
1Goalkeeper Saves5
726Total Passes364
668Passes Accurate294
92%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

SpainSpain
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
1983Elo Rating 1671
2.50Attack 1.57
1.98Defense 3.00
86%Hit Rate 77%
14.5Shots per Game -
6.7Shots on Target -
5.7Corners per Game -
1.0Cards per Game -

AI Insights

šŸ Strong Home Advantage+312 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.92 goals
šŸ“ˆBTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

SpainSpain
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)

Recent Form

SpainSpain
6W3D1L
15/06/2026
SpainCape Verde Islands
00
D
09/06/2026
PeruSpain
13
W
04/06/2026
SpainIraq
11
D
18/11/2025
SpainTürkiye
22
D
15/11/2025
GeorgiaSpain
04
W
14/10/2025
SpainBulgaria
40
W
11/10/2025
SpainGeorgia
20
W
07/09/2025
TürkiyeSpain
06
W
04/09/2025
BulgariaSpain
03
W
08/06/2025
PortugalSpain
5232
L
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
3W4D3L
16/06/2026
Saudi ArabiaUruguay
11
D
10/06/2026
Saudi ArabiaSenegal
00
D
06/06/2026
Puerto RicoSaudi Arabia
03
W
31/05/2026
EcuadorSaudi Arabia
21
L
14/10/2025
Saudi ArabiaIraq
00
D
08/10/2025
IndonesiaSaudi Arabia
23
W
29/06/2025
MexicoSaudi Arabia
20
L
23/06/2025
Saudi ArabiaTrinidad and Tobago
11
D
20/06/2025
Saudi ArabiaUSA
01
L
16/06/2025
HaitiSaudi Arabia
01
W

Referee Profile

Raphael Claus297 matches

4.34Cards per match
4.09Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
24.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Raphael Claus4.34
Other referees5.05

4.34 cards a match, 0.71 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 289 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SpainSpain32105:0+57WWD
2Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands30302:203DDD
3UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia30211:5-42DLD
#TeamMPGPts
1SpainSpain35:07
2Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands32:23
3UruguayUruguay33:42
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia31:52

About the Spain vs Saudi Arabia forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Spain and Saudi Arabia in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Spain are 1st in the World Cup, 5 points ahead of Saudi Arabia in 4th. League goal record so far: Spain 5-0, Saudi Arabia 1-5. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Spain and Saudi Arabia have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.