Norway vs Senegal Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 2
Cup
Norway
3-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Senegal
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford·Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil 23/06/2026
NorwayNorway
3-2
Finished
SenegalSenegal

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.32
SignalHIGHModel12%SurpriseHighGap+4.6%
Norway Rest
6 days
Senegal Rest
6 days

Norway vs Senegal: result, form and history

Norway beat Senegal 3-2 in the World Cup on 23 Jun 2026. It was in line with recent form: Norway had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Senegal.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
40%2.25
X
26%3.40
2
34%3.23
Double Chance
1X
66%1.34
X2
60%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.70
No
47%2.08
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.43 + 1.17 = 2.60
Over 1.5
73%1.28
Over 2.5
46%1.91
Over 3.5
25%3.30
Under 1.5
27%3.60
Under 2.5
54%1.91
Under 3.5
75%1.32
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4 = 8.7
Over 8.5
53%1.67
Over 9.5
44%2.10
Over 10.5
33%2.69
Under 8.5
47%2.12
Under 9.5
56%1.68
Under 10.5
67%1.41
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.5 = 3.2
Over 3.5
51%2.22
Over 4.5
29%3.40
Under 3.5
49%1.62
Under 4.5
71%1.28

Match Events

13'J. Ryerson INM. Pedersen out
43'M. Pedersen
46'F. Aursnes INP. Berg out
48'E. HaalandAssist: M. Odegaard
53'I. SarrAssist: S. Mane
54'M. Diouf INI. Jakobs out
54'P. Gueye INI. Mbaye out
58'E. HaalandAssist: P. Berg
63'E. Mendy INM. Diaw out
63'L. Camara INP. Ciss out
71'A. Nusa INA. Schjelderup out
72'K. Koulibaly INP. M. Sarr out
84'T. Heggem INL. Ostigard out
84'A. Sorloth INO. Bobb out
90+3'I. SarrAssist: N. Jackson

Lineups

Norway
4-3-3Coach: Stale Solbakken
Senegal
4-2-3-1Coach: Bouna Thiaw Pape
Avg rating6.92
Avg rating6.74
Ørjan Nyland6.61Ø. Nyland
Julian Ryerson6.926J. Ryerson
Kristoffer Ajer6.73K. Ajer
Torbjørn Heggem7.017T. Heggem
David Møller Wolfe6.75D. Møller Wolfe
Martin ØdegaardC7.210M. Ødegaard
Sander Berge6.78S. Berge
Fredrik Aursnes6.714F. Aursnes
Alexander Sørloth6.77A. Sørloth
Erling Haaland8.79E. Haaland
Antonio Nusa6.620A. Nusa
Edouard Mendy6.016E. Mendy
Krépin Diatta6.315K. Diatta
Kalidou KoulibalyC5.23K. Koulibaly
Moussa Niakhaté7.919M. Niakhaté
El Hadji Malick Diouf6.025E. Hadji Malick Diouf
Idrissa Gana Gueye7.35I. Gana Gueye
Pape Gueye6.526P. Gueye
Ismaïla Sarr8.218I. Sarr
Lamine Camara6.28L. Camara
Sadio Mané7.010S. Mané
Nicolas Jackson6.911N. Jackson

Norway Substitutes

16Marcus Pedersen13'for J. Ryerson43'7.5
6Patrick Berg46'for F. Aursnes7.2
21Andreas Schjelderup71'for A. Nusa6.9
4Leo Østigård84'for T. Heggem6.3
22Oscar Bobb84'for A. Sorloth6.3
12Sander Tangvik
13Egil Selvik
15Fredrik André Bjørkan
24Sondre Langås
25Henrik Sælebakke Falchener
19Thelo Aasgaard
18Kristian Thorstvedt
2Morten Thorsby
11Jørgen Strand Larsen
23Jens Petter Hauge

Senegal Substitutes

14Ismail Jakobs54'for M. Diouf6.7
20Ibrahim Mbaye54'for P. Gueye7.2
23Mory Diaw63'for E. Mendy6.9
6Pathé Ismaël Ciss63'for L. Camara7.3
17Pape Matar Sarr72'for K. Koulibaly6.3
1Yehvann Diouf
2Mamadou Sarr
4Abdoulaye Seck
24Antoine Mendy
22Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
13Iliman Ndiaye
21Habib Diarra
7Assane Diao
9Ahmadou Bamba Dieng
12Cherif Ndiaye

Match Stats

NorwaySenegal
42%Ball Possession58%
5Corner Kicks4
13Total Shots16
7Shots on Goal4
3Shots off Goal7
11Shots Inside Box10
2Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots5
13Fouls5
0Offsides4
2Goalkeeper Saves3
353Total Passes489
282Passes Accurate430
80%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

NorwayNorway
SenegalSenegal
1783Elo Rating 1773
1.33Attack 2.17
1.14Defense 1.62
17%Hit Rate 46%
12.9Shots per Game 13.8
4.6Shots on Target 5.0
4.5Corners per Game 4.3
1.2Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

NorwayNorway
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.4 in second half)
SenegalSenegal
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

NorwayNorway
9W1D0L
17/06/2026
IraqNorway
14
W
07/06/2026
MoroccoNorway
11
D
01/06/2026
NorwaySweden
31
W
16/11/2025
ItalyNorway
14
W
13/11/2025
NorwayEstonia
41
W
11/10/2025
NorwayIsrael
50
W
09/09/2025
NorwayMoldova
111
W
09/06/2025
EstoniaNorway
01
W
06/06/2025
NorwayItaly
30
W
25/03/2025
IsraelNorway
24
W
SenegalSenegal
5W2D3L
16/06/2026
FranceSenegal
31
L
10/06/2026
Saudi ArabiaSenegal
00
D
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
L
18/01/2026
SenegalMorocco
0030
L
14/01/2026
SenegalEgypt
10
W
09/01/2026
MaliSenegal
01
W
03/01/2026
SenegalSudan
31
W
30/12/2025
BeninSenegal
03
W
27/12/2025
SenegalCongo DR
11
D
23/12/2025
SenegalBotswana
30
W

Referee Profile

Wilton Pereira Sampaio312 matches

5.06Cards per match
4.84Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Wilton Pereira Sampaio5.06
Other referees5.05

5.06 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 255 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group I

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance330010:2+89WWW
2NorwayNorway32018:7+16LWW
3SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
4IraqIraq30031:12-110LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance310:29
2NorwayNorway38:76
3SenegalSenegal38:63
4IraqIraq31:120

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

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About the Norway vs Senegal forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Norway and Senegal in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Norway are 2nd in the World Cup, 3 points ahead of Senegal in 3rd. League goal record so far: Norway 8-7, Senegal 8-6. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Senegal have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Norway and Senegal have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.