Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction
Uruguay · Clausura - 2
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.36
SignalHIGHModel32%SurpriseHighGap+6.4%
Progreso Rest
8 days
Deportivo Maldonado Rest
5 days
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: the result in context
Deportivo Maldonado beat Progreso 2-0 in the Primera División on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their history points to a close game: 5 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game. Referee Mathias De Armas averages 4.72 cards a game, 1.22 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
130%3.68
X26%3.20
244%1.98
Double Chance
1X56%1.75
X270%1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%1.90
No47%1.81
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.02 + 1.68 = 2.70
Over 1.574%1.36
Over 2.551%2.11
Over 3.529%3.73
Under 1.526%2.94
Under 2.549%1.67
Under 3.571%1.23
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
2'H. Menosse
20'R. Cristobal
32'M. Gonzalez
46'C. Bolzan INC. Mayada out
50'M. Martin ING. Trasante out
62'F. De Leon INM. Copelotti out
62'A. Ocampo INN. Acosta out
68'M. Gonzalez
71'S. Cartagena INL. Nunez out
71'S. Ramirez ING. Larrazabal out
73'M. Juambeltz INL. Viana out
73'R. Cristobal INS. Bruschi out
80'H. Petryk INJ. M. Ginzo out
84'R. Cesar INA. Vila out
90'C. Tabo
Lineups
ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado
4-3-1-2Coach: Joaquin Boghossian
1R. Bacchia
24E. Álvarez
6M. Saravia
13H. Carroso
15M. Martín
5A. Pinheiro
25R. Cristobal
17F. de León
7A. Ocampo
10N. López
8M. Juambeltz
25D. Segovia
32H. Petrik
3H. Menosse
19F. Tealde
22J. Ramos
28S. Cartagena
8M. González
17S. Ramírez
9C. Bolzan
16R. César
14C. TabóProgreso Substitutes
16Gianfranco Trasante50'for M. Martin
11Nahuel Acosta62'for A. Ocampo
23Matteo Copelotti62'for F. De Leon
21Santino Bruschi Díaz73'for R. Cristobal
14Lucas Viana Gauna73'for M. Juambeltz
12Lautaro Fernández
3Federico García
2Sebastian Cardozo
4Lorenzo Couture
19Joaquin Solleiro
Deportivo Maldonado Substitutes
15Camilo Mayada46'for C. Bolzan
5Lucas Núñez71'for S. Cartagena
7Gonzalo Larrazabal
1Adriano Freitas
4Juan Martin Ginzo80'for H. Petryk
42Joaquín Fernández
20Sebastian Tormo
2Nicolás Fuica
23Adrián Vila84'for R. Cesar
29Emiliano Mozzone
Team Comparison
ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado1468Elo Rating 1669
1.77Attack 2.43
1.88Defense 1.77
58%Hit Rate 54%
8.7Shots per Game 5.5
4.4Shots on Target 2.7
3.3Corners per Game 6.4
2.3Cards per Game 2.7
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Progreso- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Deportivo Maldonado- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0.4 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings, all competitions
Progreso2Wins · 40%Draws120%
Deportivo Maldonado2Wins · 40%
2Wins · 40%2.0Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
20%3+ goals1 of 5
Previous meetings
18/07/2026ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado10
14/02/2026Deportivo MaldonadoProgreso20
21/07/2024ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado01
31/03/2024ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado31
24/06/2021Deportivo MaldonadoProgreso11
Recent Form
Progreso2W0D8L
08/08/2026
Central EspanolProgresoProgresoDeportivo Maldonado
WanderersProgreso
Central EspanolProgreso10
L02/08/2026
Club NacionalProgreso
18/07/2026Club NacionalProgreso21
LProgresoDeportivo Maldonado10
W11/07/2026WanderersProgreso20
L07/06/2026Progreso
Albion FC
ProgresoAlbion FC12
L30/05/2026
DanubioProgreso
DanubioProgreso12
W23/05/2026Progreso
Atletico Torque
ProgresoAtletico Torque12
L16/05/2026
JuventudProgreso
JuventudProgreso20
L10/05/2026Atletico TorqueProgreso
Atletico TorqueProgreso21
L03/05/2026Progreso
Cerro Largo
ProgresoCerro Largo01
LDeportivo Maldonado5W4D1L
11/08/2026Deportivo Maldonado
Racing MontevideoDeportivo MaldonadoJuventudProgresoDeportivo MaldonadoDeportivo MaldonadoAlbion FC
Deportivo MaldonadoRacing Montevideo22
D01/08/2026Deportivo MaldonadoJuventud00
D18/07/2026ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado10
L11/07/2026Deportivo MaldonadoAlbion FC11
D06/06/2026Atletico TorqueDeportivo Maldonado
Atletico TorqueDeportivo Maldonado24
W31/05/2026Deportivo MaldonadoClub Nacional
Deportivo MaldonadoClub Nacional30
W24/05/2026WanderersDeportivo Maldonado
WanderersDeportivo Maldonado11
D18/05/2026Deportivo MaldonadoDanubio
Deportivo MaldonadoDanubio31
W11/05/2026Deportivo Maldonado
Boston River
Deportivo MaldonadoBoston River21
W02/05/2026
CerroDeportivo Maldonado
CerroDeportivo Maldonado01
WReferee Profile
4.72Cards per match
4.52Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.72 cards a match, 1.22 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.94).
Cards come from 25 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 64 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 62 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 57:40 | +17 | 60 | DLDLL |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 33 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 51:40 | +11 | 58 | LLWWL |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:30 | +12 | 57 | DWWWD |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 44:31 | +13 | 53 | WLDDL |
| 7 | Wanderers | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 41:43 | -2 | 50 | LLLWL |
| 8 | Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 46 | WWDDW |
| 9 | Juventud | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 37:41 | -4 | 41 | DWLLL |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 | LDWWD |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:38 | -6 | 37 | LDDWL |
| 12 | Boston River | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33:45 | -12 | 37 | WLWWL |
| 13 | Cerro | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 28:51 | -23 | 37 | DDWLW |
| 14 |  Defensor Sporting | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 33:43 | -10 | 36 | DWLDD |
| 15 | Progreso | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 31:47 | -16 | 35 | WLLDD |
| 16 | Danubio | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 28:43 | -15 | 32 | DDDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 34 | 51:27 | 64 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 34 | 57:40 | 60 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 33 | 51:40 | 58 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 34 | 42:30 | 57 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 33 | 44:31 | 53 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 34 | 41:43 | 50 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 34 | 47:44 | 46 |
| 9 | Juventud | 34 | 37:41 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 34 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 34 | 32:38 | 37 |
| 12 | Boston River | 34 | 33:45 | 37 |
| 13 | Cerro | 34 | 28:51 | 37 |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 34 | 33:43 | 36 |
| 15 | Progreso | 34 | 31:47 | 35 |
| 16 | Danubio | 34 | 28:43 | 32 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 71 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 117:61 | +56 | 143 | DLWLW |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 70 | 42 | 14 | 14 | 127:73 | +54 | 137 | LLWWL |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 62 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 70 | 32 | 22 | 16 | 95:68 | +27 | 118 | WLDDL |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 29 | 23 | 19 | 81:68 | +13 | 110 | DWWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 71 | 31 | 16 | 24 | 111:91 | +20 | 109 | DLDLL |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 28 | 18 | 25 | 82:80 | +2 | 102 | DWLLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 26 | 19 | 26 | 75:81 | -6 | 97 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Albion FC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 46 | WWDDW |
| 10 | Boston River | 71 | 24 | 20 | 27 | 83:84 | -1 | 92 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 71 | 21 | 23 | 27 | 73:79 | -6 | 86 | LDDWL |
| 12 | Cerro | 71 | 22 | 18 | 31 | 61:93 | -32 | 83 | DDWLW |
| 13 | Wanderers | 71 | 20 | 21 | 30 | 66:90 | -24 | 81 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 | LDWWD |
| 15 | Danubio | 71 | 16 | 27 | 28 | 69:84 | -15 | 75 | DDDLD |
| 16 | Progreso | 71 | 20 | 14 | 37 | 69:107 | -38 | 74 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 71 | 117:61 | 143 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 70 | 127:73 | 137 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 34 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 70 | 95:68 | 118 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 71 | 81:68 | 110 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 71 | 111:91 | 109 |
| 7 | Juventud | 71 | 82:80 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 71 | 75:81 | 97 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 34 | 47:44 | 46 |
| 10 | Boston River | 71 | 83:84 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 71 | 73:79 | 86 |
| 12 | Cerro | 71 | 61:93 | 83 |
| 13 | Wanderers | 71 | 66:90 | 81 |
| 14 | Central Espanol | 34 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 15 | Danubio | 71 | 69:84 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 71 | 69:107 | 74 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 15 | LLLWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 13 | LLWWL |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | +6 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:11 | 0 | 12 | DLDLL |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 6 | WWDDW |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:11 | -5 | 6 | WLLDD |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:9 | -4 | 4 | DDDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 8:8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 12:6 | 12 |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 7 | 11:11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 8:11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 6:8 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 5:9 | 4 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | DWWWD |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WWDDW |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | DLWLW |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | DLDLL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | LLWWL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | WLDDL |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | LLLWL |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | DDDLD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | LDDWL |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | DWLLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | WLLDD |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | DDWLW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 24:13 | +11 | 25 | DLDLL |
| 2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | +11 | 24 | WLDDL |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | +6 | 23 | LLWWL |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:10 | +8 | 21 | DWWLW |
| 5 | Penarol | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16:8 | +8 | 21 | DLWLW |
| 6 | Progreso | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13:13 | 0 | 19 | WLLDD |
| 7 | Juventud | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 12:8 | +4 | 18 | DWLLL |
| 8 | Cerro | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 18 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | +2 | 16 | DWWWD |
| 10 | Boston River | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14:15 | -1 | 15 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Wanderers | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 15 | LLLWL |
| 12 | Albion FC | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 12 | WWDDW |
| 13 | Danubio | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6:13 | -7 | 10 | DDDLD |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 15 | Defensor Sporting | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14:23 | -9 | 9 | DWLDD |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6:21 | -15 | 5 | LDWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 12 | 24:13 | 25 |
| 2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 11 | 19:8 | 24 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 11 | 17:11 | 23 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 18:10 | 21 |
| 5 | Penarol | 12 | 16:8 | 21 |
| 6 | Progreso | 12 | 13:13 | 19 |
| 7 | Juventud | 12 | 12:8 | 18 |
| 8 | Cerro | 12 | 14:17 | 18 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 12 | 15:13 | 16 |
| 10 | Boston River | 12 | 14:15 | 15 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 12 | 13:18 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 12 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 | Danubio | 12 | 6:13 | 10 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 12 | 9:14 | 9 |
| 15 | Defensor Sporting | 12 | 14:23 | 9 |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 12 | 6:21 | 5 |
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About the Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado in the Primera División table
The table shows a wide gap: Deportivo Maldonado are 2nd in the Primera División, while Progreso sit 15th, 27 points behind. League goal record so far: Progreso 31-47, Deportivo Maldonado 54-32. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Progreso have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.