River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction

Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentina Argentina · Clausura - 6
River Plate
2-2
Finished
HT 2-0
Velez Sarsfield
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires·D. Herrera 24/08/2026
River PlateRiver Plate
2-2
Finished
Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Under 5.5
1.86
SignalNEUTRALModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
River Plate Rest
3 days
Velez Sarsfield Rest
6 days

River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield: the result in context

River Plate and Velez Sarsfield drew 2-2 in the Liga Profesional Argentina on 23 Aug 2026. Velez Sarsfield had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for River Plate.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Referee D. Herrera averages 5.85 cards a game, 0.72 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.67
X
29%3.45
2
21%5.75
Double Chance
1X
79%1.13
X2
51%2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%2.25
No
50%1.58
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.23 + 0.94 = 2.17
Over 1.5
68%1.44
Over 2.5
37%2.40
Over 3.5
19%4.60
Under 1.5
32%2.70
Under 2.5
63%1.57
Under 3.5
81%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.7 = 9.1
Over 8.5
55%1.67
Over 9.5
40%2.09
Over 10.5
29%2.67
Under 8.5
45%2.08
Under 9.5
60%1.66
Under 10.5
71%1.38
Cards
Projected Cards: 3 + 3.5 = 6.6
Over 3.5
91%-
Over 4.5
75%1.35
Under 3.5
9%-
Under 4.5
25%2.75

Match Events

11'A. CorreaAssist: L. Martinez Quarta
41'A. MorenoFoul
43'T. SilveroOG
58'S. Escobar IND. Valdes out
58'T. Aguirre IND. Godoy out
61'D. ValdesAssist: M. Pellegrini
70'A. Correa INR. Borre out
74'E. GomezFoul
79'M. LanziniAssist: E. Gomez
80'L. Martinez QuartaFoul
84'J. Freitas INL. Pereyra out
84'L. Beltran INS. Driussi out
87'M. Lanzini INA. Veron out
90+3'R. Aliendro INL. Feler out

Lineups

River Plate
4-2-3-1Coach: Eduardo Coudet
Velez Sarsfield
4-2-3-1Coach: Guilermo Barros Schelotto
Avg rating6.73
Avg rating6.56
S. Beltran6.741S. Beltran
G. Gonzalez7.020G. Gonzalez
L. Martinez Quarta7.028L. Martinez Quarta
N. OtamendiC6.930N. Otamendi
F. Ortega6.63F. Ortega
A. Moreno7.06A. Moreno
T. Andrada7.050T. Andrada
J. Freitas6.735J. Freitas
A. Correa7.310A. Correa
T. Almada6.723T. Almada
L. Beltran6.218L. Beltran
T. Marchiori6.21T. Marchiori
J. Garcia6.34J. Garcia
T. Silvero5.632T. Silvero
L. Magallan6.716L. Magallan
E. GomezC6.73E. Gomez
L. Robertone6.58L. Robertone
R. Aliendro7.329R. Aliendro
M. Pellegrini6.611M. Pellegrini
M. Lanzini7.622M. Lanzini
S. Escobar6.018S. Escobar
T. Aguirre6.239T. Aguirre

River Plate Substitutes

33E. Centurion
21M. Acuna
29G. Montiel
13L. Rivero
8M. Arambarri
24J. Meza
15Fausto Vera
26T. Galvan
25L. Pereyra84'for J. Freitas6.5
44L. Silva
9S. Driussi84'for L. Beltran6.3
19R. Borre70'for A. Correa6.3

Velez Sarsfield Substitutes

23F. Sanguinetti
2E. Mammana
19L. Cristaldo
47A. Pereyra
10D. Valdes58'for S. Escobar61'7.5
5C. Baeza
48L. Feler90+3'for R. Aliendro
17A. Veron87'for M. Lanzini6.3
35M. Arias
15D. Godoy58'for T. Aguirre6.3
37J. Policella
30L. Piola

Match Stats

River PlateVelez Sarsfield
57%Ball Possession43%
3Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal4
7Shots off Goal4
6Shots Inside Box8
7Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots3
13Fouls13
4Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
567Total Passes427
470Passes Accurate329
83%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

River PlateRiver Plate
Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
1769Elo Rating 1732
1.37Attack 2.16
2.63Defense 1.85
63%Hit Rate 42%
14.9Shots per Game 16.6
5.7Shots on Target 6.2
6.0Corners per Game 6.5
2.0Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend44% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

River PlateRiver Plate
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

River PlateRiver Plate2Wins · 22%
Draws556%
Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield2Wins · 22%
2.1Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
33%3+ goals3 of 9

Previous meetings

Liga Profesional Argentina22/02/2026
Velez SarsfieldRiver Plate
10
Liga Profesional Argentina16/11/2025
Velez SarsfieldRiver Plate
00
Liga Profesional Argentina05/05/2025
River PlateVelez Sarsfield
41
Liga Profesional Argentina19/10/2024
River PlateVelez Sarsfield
11
Liga Profesional Argentina30/05/2023
Velez SarsfieldRiver Plate
22
Liga Profesional Argentina18/07/2022
Velez SarsfieldRiver Plate
22
CONMEBOL Libertadores07/07/2022
River PlateVelez Sarsfield
00
CONMEBOL Libertadores30/06/2022
Velez SarsfieldRiver Plate
10
Liga Profesional Argentina14/08/2021
River PlateVelez Sarsfield
20

Recent Form

River PlateRiver Plate
2W2D6L
20/08/2026
Santa FeRiver Plate
00
D
16/08/2026
River PlateArgentinos JRS
20
W08/08/2026
TigreRiver Plate
10
L03/08/2026
River PlateRosario Central
01
L30/07/2026
Gimnasia L.P.River Plate
10
L26/07/2026
River PlateBarracas Central
01
L18/07/2026
River PlateAldosivi
13
L
03/07/2026
FlamengoRiver Plate
22
D
28/05/2026
River PlateBlooming
30
W
24/05/2026
River PlateBelgrano Cordoba
23
L
Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield
4W5D1L
18/08/2026
Velez SarsfieldDefensa Y Justicia
11
D09/08/2026
Boca JuniorsVelez Sarsfield
11
D04/08/2026
Velez SarsfieldIndependiente
10
W31/07/2026
Talleres CordobaVelez Sarsfield
13
W25/07/2026
Velez SarsfieldInstituto Cordoba
10
W
11/05/2026
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia L.P.
01
L
05/05/2026
Velez SarsfieldNewells Old Boys
11
D
01/05/2026
Velez SarsfieldGimnasia Y Tiro
20
W
27/04/2026
Velez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
22
D
21/04/2026
San LorenzoVelez Sarsfield
00
D

Referee Profile

D. Herrera263 matches

5.85Cards per match
5.49Yellow cards per match
0.36Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

D. Herrera5.85
Other referees5.13

5.85 cards a match, 0.72 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.13).

Cards come from 246 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Apertura - Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1694319:7+1231DDLLD
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1686222:9+1330WWWWD
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1677218:12+628LDWWL
4Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1675417:13+426DWLLD
5IndependienteIndependiente1666424:20+424WDLDD
6LanusLanus1666418:15+324DDDWW
7San LorenzoSan Lorenzo1657414:14022LDDWW
8Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1656524:20+421WDWDL
9Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1663717:17021DDWWD
10Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1647518:21-319LDWLW
11Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1654714:22-819DDLLW
12PlatensePlatense1637610:15-516WWWLD
13Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1644811:21-1016DLLLD
14Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1636715:27-1215DDDWL
15Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra161875:12-711LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1619:731
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1622:930
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1618:1228
4Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1617:1326
5IndependienteIndependiente1624:2024
6LanusLanus1618:1524
7San LorenzoSan Lorenzo1614:1422
8Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1624:2021
9Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1617:1721
10Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1618:2119
11Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1614:2219
12PlatensePlatense1610:1516
13Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1611:2116
14Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1615:2715
15Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra165:1211

Apertura - Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia16104229:15+1434DWLDL
2River PlateRiver Plate1692522:12+1029WLWWD
3Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS1685317:13+429LWWWD
4Rosario CentralRosario Central1684420:16+428WWWWW
5Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba1675417:13+426LDLLW
6Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.1682619:19026WWWWD
7HuracanHuracan1657417:13+422WLLLL
8Racing ClubRacing Club1656517:15+221LWLDL
9Barracas CentralBarracas Central1656515:15021WDWDW
10TigreTigre1648418:15+320WWLDL
11Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin1661913:20-719LLLDD
12BanfieldBanfield1653817:19-218DLDLW
13Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman1635815:20-514DLWLD
14AldosiviAldosivi160886:19-138LLWLL
15Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto1612135:24-195LLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia1629:1534
2River PlateRiver Plate1622:1229
3Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS1617:1329
4Rosario CentralRosario Central1620:1628
5Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba1617:1326
6Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.1619:1926
7HuracanHuracan1617:1322
8Racing ClubRacing Club1617:1521
9Barracas CentralBarracas Central1615:1521
10TigreTigre1618:1520
11Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin1613:2019
12BanfieldBanfield1617:1918
13Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman1615:2014
14AldosiviAldosivi166:198
15Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto165:245

Clausura - Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba16104226:15+1134DDWWD
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1696124:14+1033WWWWD
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1677225:17+828LDWWL
4Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1684421:15+628LDWLW
5LanusLanus1675419:12+726DDDWW
6Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1658316:13+323DDDWL
7IndependienteIndependiente1665515:16-123WDLDD
8Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1664618:17+122DDLLW
9Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1663724:24021WDWDL
10PlatensePlatense1655618:20-220WWWLD
11San LorenzoSan Lorenzo165479:16-719LDDWW
12Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1644821:22-116DDLLD
13Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1634917:23-613DWLLD
14Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra1626811:19-812LLLDL
15Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1625912:26-1411DLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba1626:1534
2Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1624:1433
3Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield1625:1728
4Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia1621:1528
5LanusLanus1619:1226
6Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys1616:1323
7IndependienteIndependiente1615:1623
8Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.1618:1722
9Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe1624:2421
10PlatensePlatense1618:2020
11San LorenzoSan Lorenzo169:1619
12Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1621:2216
13Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba1617:2313
14Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra1611:1912
15Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago1612:2611

Clausura - Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Rosario CentralRosario Central16104226:12+1434WWWWW
2Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS1694320:14+631LWWWD
3Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.1694325:20+531WWWWD
4River PlateRiver Plate1682621:14+726WLWWD
5Barracas CentralBarracas Central1675417:13+426WDWDW
6Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba1665517:15+223LDLLW
7Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia1665521:24-323DWLDL
8HuracanHuracan1664614:16-222WLLLL
9Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin1663723:24-121LLLDD
10TigreTigre1654716:16019WWLDL
11Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman1646616:17-118DLWLD
12BanfieldBanfield1636718:25-715DLDLW
13Racing ClubRacing Club1643916:24-815LWLDL
14AldosiviAldosivi16321116:26-1011LLWLL
15Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto16231110:23-139LLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Rosario CentralRosario Central1626:1234
2Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS1620:1431
3Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.1625:2031
4River PlateRiver Plate1621:1426
5Barracas CentralBarracas Central1617:1326
6Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba1617:1523
7Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia1621:2423
8HuracanHuracan1614:1622
9Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin1623:2421
10TigreTigre1616:1619
11Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman1616:1718
12BanfieldBanfield1618:2515
13Racing ClubRacing Club1616:2415
14AldosiviAldosivi1616:2611
15Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto1610:239

Liga Profesional Argentina

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors321712346:23+2363WWWWD
2Rosario CentralRosario Central32188646:28+1862WWWWW
3Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS32179637:27+1060LWWWD
4Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia32169750:39+1157DWLDL
5Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.32176944:39+557WWWWD
6Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield321414443:29+1456LDWWL
7River PlateRiver Plate321741143:26+1755WLWWD
8Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba32167943:32+1155DDWWD
9LanusLanus321311837:27+1050DDDWW
10Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba321310934:28+649LDLLW
11Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.321381140:29+1147DDLLD
12Barracas CentralBarracas Central321211932:28+447WDWDW
13IndependienteIndependiente321211939:36+347WDLDD
14Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia321211939:36+347LDWLW
15HuracanHuracan3211111031:29+244WLLLL
16Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe321191248:44+442WDWDL
17Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.321181332:39-741DDLLW
18San LorenzoSan Lorenzo3210111123:30-741LDDWW
19Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin321241636:44-840LLLDD
20TigreTigre329121134:31+339WWLDL
21Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba321091334:36-239DWLLD
22Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys328141031:40-938DDDWL
23Racing ClubRacing Club32991433:39-636LWLDL
24PlatensePlatense328121228:35-736WWWLD
25BanfieldBanfield32891535:44-933DLDLW
26Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman327111431:37-632DLWLD
27Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago32691723:47-2427DLLLD
28Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra323141516:31-1523LLLDL
29AldosiviAldosivi323101922:45-2319LLWLL
30Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto32352415:47-3214LLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors3246:2363
2Rosario CentralRosario Central3246:2862
3Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS3237:2760
4Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia3250:3957
5Gimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P.3244:3957
6Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield3243:2956
7River PlateRiver Plate3243:2655
8Instituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba3243:3255
9LanusLanus3237:2750
10Belgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba3234:2849
11Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.3240:2947
12Barracas CentralBarracas Central3232:2847
13IndependienteIndependiente3239:3647
14Defensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia3239:3647
15HuracanHuracan3231:2944
16Union Santa FeUnion Santa Fe3248:4442
17Gimnasia M.Gimnasia M.3232:3941
18San LorenzoSan Lorenzo3223:3041
19Sarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin3236:4440
20TigreTigre3234:3139
21Talleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba3234:3639
22Newells Old BoysNewells Old Boys3231:4038
23Racing ClubRacing Club3233:3936
24PlatensePlatense3228:3536
25BanfieldBanfield3235:4433
26Atletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman3231:3732
27Central Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago3223:4727
28Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra3216:3123
29AldosiviAldosivi3222:4519
30Estudiantes de Rio CuartoEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto3215:4714
Relegation

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About the River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield forecast

The forecasts for this Liga Profesional Argentina match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

River Plate and Velez Sarsfield in the Liga Profesional Argentina table

Velez Sarsfield and River Plate are close in the Liga Profesional Argentina table, 6th and 7th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: River Plate 43-26, Velez Sarsfield 43-29. The full standings are on the Liga Profesional Argentina Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.