Serbia vs Netherlands Prediction

Serbia
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Netherlands
Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade·Szymon Marciniak 27/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
65%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.38
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap-7.0%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.51
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+7.2%
Serbia Rest
2 days
Netherlands Rest
2 days

Serbia vs Netherlands: the result in context

Netherlands beat Serbia 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 27 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Netherlands tend to win more corners, 6.9 a game to 4.1 for Serbia.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
14%7.50
X
19%5.00
2
67%1.38
Double Chance
1X
33%3.00
X2
86%1.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.72
No
49%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.77 + 1.44 = 2.21
Over 1.5
81%1.14
Over 2.5
59%1.50
Over 3.5
39%2.34
Under 1.5
19%5.25
Under 2.5
41%2.48
Under 3.5
61%1.62
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.3 + 5.4 = 9.7
Over 8.5
56%1.79
Over 9.5
46%2.32
Over 10.5
34%3.10
Under 8.5
44%1.97
Under 9.5
54%1.55
Under 10.5
66%1.30
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.6 = 3.4
Over 3.5
44%1.82
Over 4.5
26%2.65
Under 3.5
56%1.99
Under 4.5
74%1.45

Match Events

12'Saša LukićFoul
17'Cody Gakpo INRuben van Bommel out
30'Mexx Meerdink(Penalty)
45'Dejan Joveljić INLuka Jovic out
45'Sergej Milinković-Savić INDušan Tadić out
46'Luka JovicAssist: Saša Lukić
59'Aleksandar Stankovic INNemanja Maksimović out
59'Kosta Nedeljkovic INStrahinja Erakovic out
67'Ryan Gravenberch INGuus Til out
67'Tijjani Reijnders INKenneth Taylor out
69'Mexx MeerdinkAssist: Guus Til
71'Strahinja Pavlovic INFilip Kostić out
80'Denzel Dumfries INJurriën Timber out
80'Mexx Meerdink INQuinten Timber out
85'Jurriën TimberNot retreating

Lineups

Serbia
5-4-1Coach: V. Paunovic
Netherlands
4-3-3Coach: Xavi
Avg rating6.42
Avg rating6.91
V. Milinković-Savić6.723V. Milinković-Savić
K. Nedeljković6.22K. Nedeljković
N. Gudelj6.46N. Gudelj
S. Babić6.415S. Babić
S. Pavlović5.63S. Pavlović
A. Terzić5.917A. Terzić
A. Živković6.114A. Živković
A. Stanković6.17A. Stanković
S. Lukić7.122S. Lukić
S. Milinković-Savić6.520S. Milinković-Savić
D. Joveljić6.39D. Joveljić
B. Verbruggen7.81B. Verbruggen
D. Dumfries7.322D. Dumfries
J. van Hecke7.16J. van Hecke
V. van Dijk6.94V. van Dijk
M. van de Ven6.615M. van de Ven
R. Gravenberch6.68R. Gravenberch
J. Veerman7.218J. Veerman
T. Reijnders7.414T. Reijnders
C. Summerville6.57C. Summerville
M. Meerdink8.217M. Meerdink
C. Gakpo6.711C. Gakpo

Serbia Substitutes

5N. Maksimović59'for Aleksandar Stankovic6.0
11F. Kostić71'for Strahinja Pavlovic6.2
1Đ. Petrović
21L. Samardžić
13N. Simić
12F. Stanković
10D. Tadić45'for Sergej Milinković-Savić7.2
18M. Cvetković
4V. Dragojević
19S. Džodić
16S. Eraković59'for Kosta Nedeljkovic6.1
8L. Jović45'for Dejan Joveljić46'7.8

Netherlands Substitutes

23M. Flekken
3J. Hato
20T. Koopmeiners
10N. Lang
13R. Roefs
12K. Taylor67'for Tijjani Reijnders6.0
16G. Til67'for Ryan Gravenberch7.0
19Q. Timber80'for Mexx Meerdink6.2
2J. Timber80'for Denzel Dumfries85'6.0
9J. Zirkzee
21R. van Bommel17'for Cody Gakpo7.0
5N. Aké

Match Stats

SerbiaNetherlands
33%Ball Possession67%
3Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards1
11Total Shots25
6Shots on Goal8
4Shots off Goal7
10Shots Inside Box15
1Shots Outside Box10
1Blocked Shots10
7Fouls10
4Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves5
303Total Passes634
234Passes Accurate572
9Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

SerbiaSerbia
NetherlandsNetherlands
1598Elo Rating 1820
0.91Attack 1.69
1.14Defense 1.77
14%Hit Rate 46%
10.3Shots per Game 19.6
4.1Shots on Target 6.5
4.1Corners per Game 6.9
2.1Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

SerbiaSerbia
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
NetherlandsNetherlands
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

SerbiaSerbia
4W0D6L
24/09/2026
SerbiaGreece
12
L
05/06/2026
MexicoSerbia
51
L
31/05/2026
Cape Verde IslandsSerbia
30
L
16/11/2025
SerbiaLatvia
21
W
13/11/2025
EnglandSerbia
20
L
14/10/2025
AndorraSerbia
13
W
11/10/2025
SerbiaAlbania
01
L
09/09/2025
SerbiaEngland
05
L
06/09/2025
LatviaSerbia
01
W
10/06/2025
SerbiaAndorra
30
W
NetherlandsNetherlands
5W3D2L
24/09/2026
NetherlandsGermany
11
D
30/06/2026
NetherlandsMorocco
2131
L
26/06/2026
TunisiaNetherlands
13
W
20/06/2026
NetherlandsSweden
51
W
14/06/2026
NetherlandsJapan
22
D
08/06/2026
NetherlandsUzbekistan
21
W
03/06/2026
NetherlandsAlgeria
01
L
17/11/2025
NetherlandsLithuania
40
W
14/11/2025
PolandNetherlands
11
D
12/10/2025
NetherlandsFinland
40
W

Referee Profile

Szymon Marciniak297 matches

4.22Cards per match
4.09Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Szymon Marciniak4.19
Other referees4.28

4.19 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.28).

Cards come from 269 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NetherlandsNetherlands42207:5+28WDWD
2GreeceGreece42205:3+28DDWW
3GermanyGermany41213:2+15DWLD
4SerbiaSerbia40043:8-50LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NetherlandsNetherlands47:58
2GreeceGreece45:38
3GermanyGermany43:25
4SerbiaSerbia43:80

About the Serbia vs Netherlands forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Serbia and Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Netherlands are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 8 points ahead of Serbia in 4th. League goal record so far: Serbia 3-8, Netherlands 7-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Serbia and Netherlands have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.