Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction

Castellón
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
AD Ceuta FC
Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon·Marta Huerta de Aza 04/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.22
SignalHIGHModel80%SurpriseMediumGap-3.1%
Castellón Rest
5 days
AD Ceuta FC Rest
8 days

Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC: result, form and history

Castellón and AD Ceuta FC drew 1-1 in the Segunda División on 4 Oct 2026. Castellón had gone in with the better form, having won 5 of their previous five against 1 for AD Ceuta FC.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 4 previous meetings averaged 4.0 goals, and both sides scored in 4 of them. AD Ceuta FC tend to win more corners, 7.8 a game to 4.5 for Castellón.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
78%1.22
X
15%6.00
2
7%9.80
Double Chance
1X
93%1.04
X2
22%3.90
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.67
No
46%2.06
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.31 + 0.86 = 3.17
Over 1.5
86%1.08
Over 2.5
68%1.33
Over 3.5
46%1.89
Under 1.5
14%7.00
Under 2.5
32%3.10
Under 3.5
54%1.90
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 3.9 = 9.8
Over 8.5
63%1.52
Over 9.5
50%1.93
Over 10.5
39%2.42
Under 8.5
37%2.29
Under 9.5
50%1.85
Under 10.5
61%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.6 = 4.4
Over 3.5
63%-
Over 4.5
44%1.67
Under 3.5
37%-
Under 4.5
56%2.10

Match Events

2'Israel Suero FernándezAssist: Álvaro García Arana
6'Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroFoul
45'Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro INMarino Illesca out
49'Carlos HernándezFoul
53'Jordi EscobarAssist: Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez
55'Alberto JiménezFoul
63'Federico Ceccherini INLucas Alcázar out
63'Íñigo Córdoba INantonio gala out
69'Kialy Abdoul Kone INEdgar Sevikyan out
77'Kuki Zalazar INOmar Sadik out
77'Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez INAlejandro Meléndez out
79'Alvaro Martin INHamza Bellari out
84'José MatosFoul
85'Alejandro Camacho Ramírez INAlexander Petxarroman Eizagirre out
86'Pablo Santiago INRaúl Sánchez out
86'Álvaro García Arana INDavid Muale Nzanza out

Lineups

Castellón
3-4-2-1Coach: Pablo Hernández
AD Ceuta FC
3-4-2-1Coach: José Juan Romero
Avg rating6.62
Avg rating6.62
R. Matthys6.713R. Matthys
F. Ceccherini6.911F. Ceccherini
Alberto Jiménez6.45A. Jiménez
A. Sienra6.14A. Sienra
Pablo Santiago6.318P. Santiago
Barri6.68Barri
Álvaro Martín6.921Á. Martín
Iñigo Córdoba6.114I. Córdoba
Israel Suero8.210I. Suero
A. Jakobsen6.616A. Jakobsen
Varo García6.923V. García
Guille Vallejo6.113G. Vallejo
Albert Caparrós6.84A. Caparrós
Carlos Hernández6.06C. Hernández
D. Mas6.934D. Mas
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez6.77A. Camacho Ramírez
Joaquín7.215Joaquín
3232C. Gabriel Okoro
José Matos6.53J. Matos
Kuki6.68Kuki
K. Koné6.422K. Koné
Jordi Escobar8.29J. Escobar

Castellón Substitutes

30M. Willmann
7Raúl Sánchez86'for Pablo Santiago6.5
35Sergi Torner
31Óscar Albiol Giner
12Lucas Alcázar63'for Federico Ceccherini6.1
19Hamza Bellari79'for Alvaro Martin6.3
20Martín Conde
33Miguel Ferrer Alarte
27A. Gala63'for Íñigo Córdoba6.8
15I. Kostis
24D. Muale Nzanza86'for Álvaro García Arana6.5
32Axel Perez

AD Ceuta FC Substitutes

26Arick Betancourt
14Y. Bodiger
28Abraham Bueno Espinosa
36José Miguel Gómez Bapori
10Marino Illescas45'replaced by Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro6.7
27U. Konare
1Pedro López
20Álex Meléndez77'for Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez6.4
17Mawuli Mensah
18Alex Petxarroman85'for Alejandro Camacho Ramírez6.3
29O. Sadik77'for Kuki Zalazar6.6
19E. Sevikyan69'for Kialy Abdoul Kone6.5

Match Stats

CastellónAD Ceuta FC
72%Ball Possession28%
3Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards3
10Total Shots13
2Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box11
3Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots3
14Fouls16
5Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves1
580Total Passes222
521Passes Accurate156
16Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

CastellónCastellón
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
1726Elo Rating 1503
2.04Attack 1.33
2.58Defense 1.50
58%Hit Rate 17%
13.7Shots per Game 20.1
4.8Shots on Target 5.3
4.5Corners per Game 7.8
1.3Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+223 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.17 goals
📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CastellónCastellón
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.7 in second half)
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

CastellónCastellón1Wins · 25%
Draws375%
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC0Wins · 0%
4.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored4 of 4
75%3+ goals3 of 4

Previous meetings

Segunda División09/05/2026
AD Ceuta FCCastellón
11
Segunda División14/09/2025
CastellónAD Ceuta FC
33
Primera División RFEF - Group 211/02/2024
CastellónAD Ceuta FC
22
Primera División RFEF - Group 215/10/2023
AD Ceuta FCCastellón
13

Recent Form

CastellónCastellón
7W1D2L
28/09/2026
LeganesCastellón
02
W
19/09/2026
CastellónTenerife
50
W
12/09/2026
GironaCastellón
12
W
06/09/2026
CastellónAlbacete
20
W
31/08/2026
Celta de Vigo IICastellón
12
W
23/08/2026
CastellónSabadell
00
D
14/08/2026
Real Sociedad IICastellón
01
W
08/08/2026
CastellónLevante
13
L
07/08/2026
HérculesCastellón
4050
W
31/07/2026
AlavesCastellón
30
L
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
3W1D6L

Referee Profile

Marta Huerta de Aza85 matches

4.82Cards per match
4.55Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Marta Huerta de Aza4.82
Other referees5.15

4.82 cards a match, 0.33 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.15).

Cards come from 44 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Segunda División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CastellónCastellón1182122:4+1826WWLDW
2AlmeriaAlmeria1181222:9+1325DWWWW
3EibarEibar1171320:13+722LDLWW
4GironaGirona1163222:10+1221WWDDW
5Granada CFGranada CF1162318:14+420WWWWL
6BurgosBurgos1162316:12+420WWLLW
7MallorcaMallorca1154213:6+719DDWDL
8Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1161411:13-219LWWWL
9OviedoOviedo1153315:12+318DWWLW
10SabadellSabadell1145211:9+217DLWDD
11CordobaCordoba1150617:20-315WWLWL
12TenerifeTenerife1135313:15-214DDDLD
13EldenseEldense1142513:15-214LWWWL
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1142514:19-514WLLDL
15ValladolidValladolid1133516:16012LLWDW
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1133516:21-512LDWLD
17LeganesLeganes113357:16-912DLLLL
18CadizCadiz1124514:14010WLLWD
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1131715:20-510LLWDW
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1122714:22-88LLLLL
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1112810:25-155LLLDW
22AlbaceteAlbacete111198:22-144WLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1CastellónCastellón1122:426
2AlmeriaAlmeria1122:925
3EibarEibar1120:1322
4GironaGirona1122:1021
5Granada CFGranada CF1118:1420
6BurgosBurgos1116:1220
7MallorcaMallorca1113:619
8Sporting GijonSporting Gijon1111:1319
9OviedoOviedo1115:1218
10SabadellSabadell1111:917
11CordobaCordoba1117:2015
12TenerifeTenerife1113:1514
13EldenseEldense1113:1514
14Las PalmasLas Palmas1114:1914
15ValladolidValladolid1116:1612
16Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II1116:2112
17LeganesLeganes117:1612
18CadizCadiz1114:1410
19FC AndorraFC Andorra1115:2010
20Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II1114:228
21AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC1110:255
22AlbaceteAlbacete118:224
PromotionRelegation

About the Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Castellón and AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División table

The table shows a wide gap: Castellón are 1st in the Segunda División, while AD Ceuta FC sit 21st, 21 points behind. League goal record so far: Castellón 22-4, AD Ceuta FC 10-25. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Castellón have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.