Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction

Merkur-Arena, Graz·Julian Weinberger, Austria 22/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.60
SignalGOODModel61%SurpriseMediumGap+8.9%
Sturm Graz Rest
7 days
Austria Lustenau Rest
7 days

Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau: the result in context

Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga on 22 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Sturm Graz have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 1.8 goals a game. Sturm Graz tend to win more corners, 7.2 a game to 3.8 for Austria Lustenau.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
69%1.35
X
19%5.00
2
12%7.50
Double Chance
1X
88%1.08
X2
31%3.02
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.73
No
45%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.99 + 0.83 = 2.82
Over 1.5
83%1.14
Over 2.5
60%1.50
Over 3.5
33%2.25
Under 1.5
17%5.00
Under 2.5
40%2.45
Under 3.5
67%1.60
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3.7 = 10
Over 8.5
64%1.33
Over 9.5
53%1.59
Over 10.5
41%1.97
Under 8.5
36%2.92
Under 9.5
47%2.21
Under 10.5
59%1.76
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.7 = 4.3
Over 3.5
55%-
Over 4.5
34%-
Under 3.5
45%-
Under 4.5
66%-

Match Events

10'D. WeixelbraunAssist: Danilo Soares
46'S. Wlodarczyk INN. Weiper out
53'L. AfrifaFoul
65'S. Jatta(Penalty)
66'N. WeiperUnsportsmanlike conduct
67'E. Soglo INL. Balbo out
67'A. Gashi INL. Jastremski out
67'S. Seidl ING. Mamageishvili out
73'F. GmeinerFoul
77'D. Weixelbraun INH. Ismailcebioglu out
77'L. Afrifa INS. Delaye out
79'P. Petrovic INP. Koller out
79'S. Jatta INB. Beganovic out
88'D. Kacuri INP. Grabher out
89'A. Verinac INP. Benjamin out
90+2'G. MamageishviliFoul
90+5'H. IsmailcebiogluFoul
90+8'D. SchierlUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Sturm Graz
4-4-2Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Austria Lustenau
4-1-4-1Coach: Markus Mader
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.91
Ammar Helac6.922A. Helac
Jurgen Heil6.928J. Heil
Petar Petrović6.921P. Petrović
Albert Vallci7.75A. Vallci
Emran Soglo6.318E. Soglo
Jacob Hödl6.943J. Hödl
Jon Gorenc StankovićC6.64J. Gorenc Stanković
Luca Weinhandl7.539L. Weinhandl
Simon Seidl6.919S. Seidl
Szymon Włodarczyk6.517S. Włodarczyk
Seedy Jatta6.320S. Jatta
Domenik SchierlC6.727D. Schierl
Fabian Gmeiner6.97F. Gmeiner
Chukwu Emmanuel6.915C. Emmanuel
Niklas Pertlwieser7.329N. Pertlwieser
Danilo Soares7.93D. Soares
Dion Kacuri7.28D. Kacuri
Dominik Weixelbraun7.211D. Weixelbraun
Lord Afrifa7.020L. Afrifa
Albin Gashi6.717A. Gashi
Seydou Diarra6.324S. Diarra
Antonio Verinac6.239A. Verinac

Sturm Graz Substitutes

32Christoph Wiener-Pucher
23Arjan Malić
27Luís Balbo67'for E. Soglo6.7
30Paul Koller79'for P. Petrovic
15Gizo Mamageishvili67'for S. Seidl90+2'6.7
40Julian Halwachs
44Nelson Weiper46'for S. Wlodarczyk66'6.5
26Belmin Beganović79'for S. Jatta
11Axel Kayombo

Austria Lustenau Substitutes

30Phillip Bohm
26Lukas Ibertsberger
18Robin Voisine
31Matthias Maak
19Sacha Delaye77'for L. Afrifa
23Pius Grabher88'for D. Kacuri
61Haris Ismailcebioglu77'for D. Weixelbraun90+5'
9Lenn Jastremski67'for A. Gashi6.6
14Precious Benjamin89'for A. Verinac

Match Stats

Sturm GrazAustria Lustenau
63%Ball Possession37%
10Corner Kicks8
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
13Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal6
7Shots off Goal7
11Shots Inside Box8
2Shots Outside Box9
2Blocked Shots4
10Fouls10
3Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves2
459Total Passes261
372Passes Accurate185
81%Pass Accuracy71%

Team Comparison

Sturm GrazSturm Graz
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau
1690Elo Rating 1534
1.63Attack 1.57
1.05Defense 0.00
14%Hit Rate 23%
21.5Shots per Game 9.8
5.3Shots on Target 3.7
7.2Corners per Game 3.8
1.8Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+156 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Sturm GrazSturm Graz
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

Sturm GrazSturm Graz4Wins · 100%
Draws00%
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau0Wins · 0%
1.8Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 4
0%3+ goals0 of 4

Previous meetings

Bundesliga25/11/2023
Sturm GrazAustria Lustenau
20
Bundesliga19/08/2023
Austria LustenauSturm Graz
01
Bundesliga04/03/2023
Austria LustenauSturm Graz
02
Bundesliga18/09/2022
Sturm GrazAustria Lustenau
20

Recent Form

Sturm GrazSturm Graz
7W1D2L
Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau
4W3D3L
15/08/2026
Austria LustenauWolfsberger AC
21
W
08/08/2026
Grazer AKAustria Lustenau
21
L
02/08/2026
Austria LustenauRied
11
D
25/07/2026
Krems / RehbergAustria Lustenau
01
W
16/07/2026
Nürnberg IIAustria Lustenau
10
L
15/07/2026
Schwarz-Weiß BregenzAustria Lustenau
11
D
10/07/2026
Austria LustenauFC Aarau
10
W
04/07/2026
FC VaduzAustria Lustenau
10
L
01/07/2026
Austria LustenauBSC Young Boys
00
D
26/06/2026
Austria LustenauFC WIL 1900
20
W

Referee Profile

Julian Weinberger166 matches

4.50Cards per match
4.28Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Julian Weinberger4.50
Other referees4.43

4.50 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.43).

Cards come from 130 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna12110139:9+3033WWWWW
2Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg1293033:9+2430WWWWD
3Lask LinzLask Linz1281330:15+1525WWLWL
4TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg1262423:19+420WWWLW
5Sturm GrazSturm Graz1254322:17+519LDDWW
6RiedRied1244421:22-116LDDWW
7WSG WattensWSG Wattens1234515:18-313DLDWL
8Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau1232715:30-1511WLLLL
9SCR AltachSCR Altach1231811:20-910LDWLW
10Grazer AKGrazer AK122469:29-2010LLDLD
11Austria ViennaAustria Vienna1222811:23-128DLLLL
12Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC121388:26-186LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna1239:933
2Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg1233:930
3Lask LinzLask Linz1230:1525
4TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg1223:1920
5Sturm GrazSturm Graz1222:1719
6RiedRied1221:2216
7WSG WattensWSG Wattens1215:1813
8Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau1215:3011
9SCR AltachSCR Altach1211:2010
10Grazer AKGrazer AK129:2910
11Austria ViennaAustria Vienna1211:238
12Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC128:266
PromotionRelegation

About the Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, Sturm Graz are 5th and Austria Lustenau 8th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Sturm Graz 22-17, Austria Lustenau 15-30. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.