Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Prediction
World · Qualifying Round 3
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.64
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+14.9%
Sturm Graz Rest
3 days
Fenerbahçe Rest
6 days
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe: the result in context
Fenerbahçe beat Sturm Graz 1-0 in the UEFA Champions League on 11 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 3 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Referee A. Hernandez averages 5.38 cards a game, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
131%4.10
X21%3.85
248%1.76
Double Chance
1X52%2.00
X269%1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes50%1.60
No50%2.17
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.53 + 1.45 = 2.98
Over 1.577%1.20
Over 2.554%1.65
Over 3.531%2.60
Under 1.523%4.33
Under 2.546%2.21
Under 3.569%1.46
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.1 = 9
Over 8.538%1.49
Over 9.528%1.85
Over 10.521%2.29
Under 8.562%2.36
Under 9.572%1.88
Under 10.579%1.54
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 3.9
Over 3.530%1.27
Over 4.519%1.62
Under 3.570%3.00
Under 4.581%2.07
Match Events
40'N. SemedoTripping
45'A. BrownTripping
61'A. Kayombo INN. Weiper out
61'S. Jatta INB. Beganovic out
61'A. Malic INJ. Heil out
62'N. Semedo INM. Muldur out
63'M. Greenwood INO. Aydin out
63'M. Asensio INFred out
66'Talisca(Penalty)
70'J. Gorenc Stankovic INR. Fosso out
73'N. Kante INI. Yuksek out
77'Talisca INV. Muriqi out
79'P. Petrovic INP. Koller out
80'F. IngolitschUnsportsmanlike conduct
84'J. MitchellRoughing
89'K. AkturkogluTripping
90+3'R. FossoUnsportsmanlike conduct
Lineups
Sturm GrazFenerbahçe
4-2-3-1Coach: Ismail KartalAvg ratingAvg rating
53D. Khudyakov
23A. Malić
2J. Mitchell
21P. Petrović
18E. Soglo
19S. Seidl
C4J. Gorenc Stanković
39L. Weinhandl
43J. Hödl
11A. Kayombo
20S. Jatta
34M. Günok
27N. Semedo
C37M. Škriniar
15N. Aké
3A. Brown
6M. Guendouzi
91N. Kanté
11M. Greenwood
10M. Asensio
9K. Aktürkoğlu
94TaliscaSturm Graz Substitutes
28Jurgen Heil61'for A. Malic
26Belmin Beganović61'for S. Jatta
44Nelson Weiper61'for A. Kayombo
80Ryan Fosso70'for J. Gorenc Stankovic90+3'
30Paul Koller79'for P. Petrovic
22Ammar Helac
41Elias Lorenz
5Albert Vallci
27Luís Balbo
15Gizo Mamageishvili
40Julian Halwachs
17Szymon Włodarczyk
Fenerbahçe Substitutes
18Mert Müldür62'for N. Semedo
7Fred63'for M. Asensio
70Oğuz Aydın63'for M. Greenwood
5İsmail Yüksek73'for N. Kante
19Vedat Muriqi77'for Talisca
13Tarık Çetin
75Kuzey Sapaz
14Yiğit Efe Demir
4Çağlar Söyüncü
17İrfan Can Kahveci
26Sidiki Cherif
Match Stats
Sturm GrazFenerbahçe 50%Ball Possession50%
7Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards3
19Total Shots11
2Shots on Goal6
8Shots off Goal3
6Shots Inside Box8
13Shots Outside Box3
9Blocked Shots2
12Fouls13
1Offsides0
5Goalkeeper Saves2
383Total Passes397
311Passes Accurate318
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Team Comparison
Sturm GrazFenerbahçe1720Elo Rating 1833
2.19Attack 1.73
1.14Defense 1.01
36%Hit Rate 34%
18.3Shots per Game 13.5
5.7Shots on Target 4.5
5.2Corners per Game 4.4
2.8Cards per Game 3.0
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.98 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Sturm Graz- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Fenerbahçe- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings, all competitions
Sturm Graz0Wins · 0%Draws133%
Fenerbahçe2Wins · 67%
2Wins · 67%2.3Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3
Previous meetings
Recent Form
Sturm Graz7W2D1L
08/08/2026
TSV HartbergSturm GrazFenerbahçeSturm Graz
WSG WattensSturm Graz
Heart Of MidlothianSturm GrazSturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
TSV HartbergSturm Graz02
W05/08/2026FenerbahçeSturm Graz20
L01/08/2026WSG WattensSturm Graz11
D28/07/2026Heart Of MidlothianSturm Graz02
W24/07/2026
SeekirchenSturm Graz
21/07/2026SeekirchenSturm Graz03
WSturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian40
W15/07/2026Sturm Graz
Pogon Szczecin
Sturm GrazPogon Szczecin10
W11/07/2026Sturm Graz
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sturm GrazSanfrecce Hiroshima41
W08/07/2026Sturm Graz
Kalsdorf
Sturm GrazKalsdorf41
W03/07/2026Sturm Graz
FK Košice
Sturm GrazFK Košice22
DFenerbahçe7W2D1L
05/08/2026FenerbahçeSturm Graz
Gornik ZabrzeFenerbahçeFenerbahçeGornik Zabrze
FenerbahçeSturm Graz20
W29/07/2026Gornik ZabrzeFenerbahçe11
D21/07/2026FenerbahçeGornik Zabrze10
W14/07/2026
Lask LinzFenerbahçe
Lask LinzFenerbahçe12
W11/07/2026FenerbahçePogon Szczecin
FenerbahçePogon Szczecin40
W08/07/2026
Admira WackerFenerbahçe
Admira WackerFenerbahçe05
W17/05/2026Fenerbahçe
Eyüpspor
FenerbahçeEyüpspor33
D09/05/2026
KonyasporFenerbahçe
KonyasporFenerbahçe03
W02/05/2026Fenerbahçe
Başakşehir
FenerbahçeBaşakşehir31
W26/04/2026
GalatasarayFenerbahçe
GalatasarayFenerbahçe30
LReferee Profile
5.38Cards per match
5.15Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.38 cards a match, 0.68 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.70).
Cards come from 188 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Manchester United | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Bracket
Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
VikingAEK Athens FC
CelticLask Linz
Union St. GilloiseBodo/Glimt
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
Sparta Praha
LyonSlovan Bratislava
Mjallby AIF
Aarhus
Lech PoznanFenerbahçeGornik Zabrze
FC Thun
Dinamo ZagrebSturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
FK Crvena Zvezda
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Omonia Nicosia
CeljeVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzUnion St. GilloiseBodo/GlimtOlympiakos PiraeusNEC NijmegenSparta PrahaLyonVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzVikingAEK Athens FCCelticLask LinzExplore more predictions
This match
- Sturm Graz Predictions
- Fenerbahçe Predictions
- UEFA Champions League Predictions
- UEFA Champions League Standings
- UEFA Champions League Stats 2026
- UEFA Champions League top scorers
- UEFA Champions League Knockout Rounds
- UEFA Champions League Winners and Finals History
- Football Tournaments: Predictions, Brackets and History
More UEFA Champions League matches
About the Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe forecast
This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About UEFA Champions League
More UEFA Champions League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Champions League Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
Fenerbahçe have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.