Sturm Graz vs Ried Prediction

Sturm Graz
2-2
Finished
HT 1-1
Ried
Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz·Safak Barmaksiz 25/10/2026
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
2-2
Finished
RiedRied

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalSTRONGModel66%SurpriseMediumGap-4.4%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.45
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+3.6%
Sturm Graz Rest
2 days
Ried Rest
7 days

Sturm Graz vs Ried: the result in context

Sturm Graz and Ried drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Sturm Graz have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.65
X
22%4.20
2
18%4.50
Double Chance
1X
82%1.18
X2
40%2.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%1.47
No
38%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.25 + 1.05 = 3.30
Over 1.5
85%1.11
Over 2.5
67%1.41
Over 3.5
46%2.10
Under 1.5
15%5.75
Under 2.5
33%2.70
Under 3.5
54%1.67
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.1 = 10.1
Over 8.5
66%1.45
Over 9.5
55%1.83
Over 10.5
43%2.28
Under 8.5
34%2.40
Under 9.5
45%1.87
Under 10.5
57%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.2 = 4
Over 3.5
56%-
Over 4.5
37%-
Under 3.5
44%-
Under 4.5
63%-

Match Events

25'Luka CapanFoul
31'Simon Seidl
45'Card upgrade confirmedArjan Malić
45+2'Arjan MalićViolent conduct
45+4'Jon Gorenc StankovićDissent
45+5'Philipp Pomer(Penalty)
47'Fabian Hubert RossdorferFoul
55'Isaac ThelinAssist: Fabian Hubert Rossdorfer
63'Lukas Malicsek INMartin Rasner out
64'Jussef Nasrawe INStefan Schwab out
67'Luis Balbo INPetar Petrović out
67'Simon Seidl INBelmin Beganovic out
78'Oumar Diakité INSzymon Wlodarczyk out
78'Jon Gorenc Stanković INJulian Halwachs out
80'Isaac Thelin INEvan Eghosa Aisowieren out
80'J. Rhodes INJoris Boguo out
87'Luka Capan INOliver Steurer out
89'Valmir Matoshi INNiklas Geyrhofer out
90+2'Belmin BeganovicAssist: Jacob Peter Hödl
90+2'Szymon WlodarczykDissent

Lineups

Sturm Graz
3-4-2-1Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Ried
3-4-1-2Coach: M. Despotović
Avg rating6.46
Avg rating6.47
A. Helac6.122A. Helac
A. Malic5.123A. Malic
J. Quarshie6.22J. Quarshie
P. Koller6.430P. Koller
Jacob Peter Hödl7.143J. Peter Hödl
J. Gorenc Stankovič6.74J. Gorenc Stankovič
Luca Weinhandl6.439L. Weinhandl
L. Balbo6.527L. Balbo
S. Seidl8.219S. Seidl
V. Matoshi5.778V. Matoshi
O. Diakité6.514O. Diakité
A. Leitner6.51A. Leitner
D. Radonjic5.85D. Radonjic
S. Chukwudi6.828S. Chukwudi
L. Capan5.929L. Capan
F. Rossdorfer7.318F. Rossdorfer
Y. Maart6.16Y. Maart
L. Malicsek6.44L. Malicsek
P. Pomer6.617P. Pomer
J. Nasrawe6.310J. Nasrawe
I. Kiese Thelin8.192I. Kiese Thelin
J. Rhodes6.511J. Rhodes

Sturm Graz Substitutes

26B. Beganović67'for Simon Seidl90+2'8.1
35N. Geyrhofer89'for Valmir Matoshi6.1
40J. Halwachs78'for Jon Gorenc Stanković6.1
11A. Kayombo
41E. Lorenz
99Kelechi Nnamdi
21P. Petrović67'for Luis Balbo6.1
5A. Vallci
17S. Włodarczyk78'for Oumar Diakité90+2'6.3

Ried Substitutes

21T. Kusanovic
19T. Lund Jensen
8M. Rasner63'for Lukas Malicsek6.2
22S. Schwab64'for Jussef Nasrawe6.2
9N. Sissoko
30O. Steurer87'for Luka Capan6.1
13H. Hankič
47Evan Eghosa Aisowieren80'for Isaac Thelin6.0
15J. Boguo80'for J. Rhodes6.9

Match Stats

Sturm GrazRied
44%Ball Possession56%
8Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
27Total Shots10
6Shots on Goal4
13Shots off Goal5
19Shots Inside Box5
8Shots Outside Box5
8Blocked Shots1
8Fouls14
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves4
327Total Passes437
245Passes Accurate357
75%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

Sturm GrazSturm Graz
RiedRied
1744Elo Rating 1625
1.98Attack 2.92
1.76Defense 1.73
66%Hit Rate 83%
14.1Shots per Game 12.7
5.1Shots on Target 6.1
5.3Corners per Game 3.6
2.5Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+120 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.3 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sturm GrazSturm Graz
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
RiedRied
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.1 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Sturm GrazSturm Graz7Wins · 70%
Draws220%
RiedRied1Wins · 10%
2.7Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Bundesliga08/02/2026
Sturm GrazRied
10
Bundesliga16/08/2025
RiedSturm Graz
13
Cup28/08/2024
RiedSturm Graz
13
Bundesliga30/10/2022
Sturm GrazRied
21
Bundesliga06/08/2022
RiedSturm Graz
11
Bundesliga06/03/2022
RiedSturm Graz
22
Cup27/10/2021
Sturm GrazRied
12
Bundesliga17/10/2021
Sturm GrazRied
10
Bundesliga09/02/2021
Sturm GrazRied
21
Bundesliga24/10/2020
RiedSturm Graz
02

Recent Form

RiedRied
5W2D3L
17/10/2026
RiedAustria Vienna
32
W
10/10/2026
WSG WattensRied
12
W
02/10/2026
RiedSKU Amstetten
33
D
20/09/2026
RiedWolfsberger AC
41
W
11/09/2026
RiedRed Bull Salzburg
11
D
04/09/2026
Wallern / MarienkirchenRied
15
W
30/08/2026
TSV HartbergRied
32
L
21/08/2026
RiedGrazer AK
10
W
14/08/2026
Lask LinzRied
41
L
09/08/2026
RiedRapid Vienna
12
L

Referee Profile

Safak Barmaksiz98 matches

4.84Cards per match
4.64Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
24.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Safak Barmaksiz4.84
Other referees4.60

4.84 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.60).

Cards come from 55 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna1090131:9+2227WWWWW
2Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg1073024:5+1924WWDWD
3Lask LinzLask Linz1061324:12+1219LWLDL
4Sturm GrazSturm Graz1053218:12+618DWWLW
5RiedRied1043318:17+115DWWWD
6TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg1042416:19-314WLWDD
7WSG WattensWSG Wattens1033413:15-212DWLLD
8Grazer AKGrazer AK102448:23-1510DLDDW
9SCR AltachSCR Altach1030710:16-69WLWLL
10Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau1022612:24-128LLLWL
11Austria ViennaAustria Vienna1021710:20-107LLLDW
12Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC101277:19-125LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna1031:927
2Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg1024:524
3Lask LinzLask Linz1024:1219
4Sturm GrazSturm Graz1018:1218
5RiedRied1018:1715
6TSV HartbergTSV Hartberg1016:1914
7WSG WattensWSG Wattens1013:1512
8Grazer AKGrazer AK108:2310
9SCR AltachSCR Altach1010:169
10Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau1012:248
11Austria ViennaAustria Vienna1010:207
12Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC107:195
PromotionRelegation

About the Sturm Graz vs Ried forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sturm Graz and Ried in the Bundesliga table

Sturm Graz and Ried are close in the Bundesliga table, 4th and 5th, with 3 points between them. League goal record so far: Sturm Graz 18-12, Ried 18-17. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Sturm Graz have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Ried have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.