Japan vs Sweden Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 3
Cup
Japan
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Sweden
AT&T Stadium, Arlington· Iván Barton, El Salvador 26/06/2026
JapanJapan
1-1
Finished
SwedenSweden

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
85%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.24
SignalGOODModel73%RiskMediumGap+4.7%
Value Analysis
61%Trust
1X2
Home Win
2.00
SignalSTRONGModel66%RiskMediumGap+11.3%
Japan Rest
4 days
Sweden Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
61%2.00
X
24%3.35
2
15%4.02
Double Chance
1X
85%1.24
X2
39%1.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.72
No
49%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.21 + 0.85 = 3.06
Over 1.5
73%1.29
Over 2.5
47%1.93
Over 3.5
26%3.25
Under 1.5
27%3.40
Under 2.5
53%1.90
Under 3.5
74%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.9 + 2.4 = 9.3
Over 8.5
52%1.69
Over 9.5
43%2.10
Over 10.5
33%2.77
Under 8.5
48%2.06
Under 9.5
57%1.67
Under 10.5
67%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.1 + 1.7 = 2.9
Over 3.5
45%2.51
Over 4.5
26%3.80
Under 3.5
55%1.50
Under 4.5
74%1.24

Match Events

32'Isak HienFoul
37'Isak Hien INLucas Bergvall out
39'Ko Itakura INShogo Taniguchi out
56'Daizen MaedaAssist: Ritsu Doan
62'Anthony ElangaAssist: Viktor Gyökeres
66'Ayase Ueda INKoki Ogawa out
67'Ritsu Doan INJunya Ito out
75'Alexander Bernhardsson INDaniel Svensson out
75'Elliot Stroud INKen Sema out
75'Keito Nakamura INYuto Nagatomo out
75'Ayumu Seko INTsuyoshi Watanabe out
77'Shogo TaniguchiFoul
85'Viktor GyökeresFoul
87'Victor Lindelöf INCarl Starfelt out
88'Gabriel Gudmundsson INBenjamin Nygren out

Lineups

Japan
3-4-3Coach: H. Moriyasu
Sweden
3-4-1-2Coach: G. Potter
Z. Suzuki1Z. SuzukiZ. Suzuki
A. Seko20A. SekoA. Seko
K. Itakura4K. ItakuraK. Itakura
H. Ito21H. ItoH. Ito
Y. Sugawara2Y. SugawaraY. Sugawara
D. Kamada15D. KamadaD. Kamada
A. Tanaka7A. TanakaA. Tanaka
Keito Nakamura13K. NakamuraKeito Nakamura
R. Dōan10R. DōanR. Dōan
A. Ueda18A. UedaA. Ueda
D. Maeda11D. MaedaD. Maeda
J. Widell Zetterström1J. Widell ZetterströmJ. Widell Zetterström
G. Lagerbielke2G. LagerbielkeG. Lagerbielke
I. Hien4I. HienI. Hien
V. Lindelöf3V. LindelöfV. Lindelöf
A. Bernhardsson21A. BernhardssonA. Bernhardsson
E. Stroud24E. StroudE. Stroud
Y. Ayari18Y. AyariY. Ayari
G. Gudmundsson5G. GudmundssonG. Gudmundsson
A. Elanga11A. ElangaA. Elanga
V. Gyökeres17V. GyökeresV. Gyökeres
A. Isak9A. IsakA. Isak

Japan Substitutes

3S. TaniguchiD
5Y. NagatomoD
14J. ItoF
22T. TomiyasuD
19Koki OgawaF
12K. OsakoG
24K. SanoM
16T. WatanabeD
17Y. SuzukiM
23T. HayakawaG
25J. SuzukiD
9K. GotoF
26K. ShiogaiF
6S. MachinoF

Sweden Substitutes

22B. ZeneliM
7L. BergvallM
8D. SvenssonD
6H. JohanssonD
26T. AliF
10B. NygrenF
12V. JohanssonG
14H. EkdalD
19M. SvanbergM
25G. NilssonF
20E. SmithD
15C. StarfeltD
13K. SemaM
16J. KarlströmM
23K. NordfeldtG

Match Stats

JapanSweden
51%Ball Possession49%
2Corner Kicks8
1Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots10
3Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal2
2Blocked Shots3
20Fouls11
3Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves2
11Free Kicks19

Team Comparison

JapanJapan
SwedenSweden
1804Elo Rating 1604
2.45Attack 1.67
1.90Defense 0.54
34%Hit Rate 31%
9.9Shots per Game 10.3
4.2Shots on Target 4.9
3.8Corners per Game 3.8
1.6Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+200 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.06 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

JapanJapan
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SwedenSweden
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

JapanJapan
3W1D1L
21/06/2026
TunisiaJapan
04
W
14/06/2026
NetherlandsJapan
22
D
31/05/2026
JapanIceland
10
W
10/06/2025
JapanIndonesia
60
W
05/06/2025
AustraliaJapan
10
L
SwedenSweden
2W1D2L
20/06/2026
NetherlandsSweden
51
L
15/06/2026
SwedenTunisia
51
W
04/06/2026
SwedenGreece
22
D
01/06/2026
NorwaySweden
31
L
31/03/2026
SwedenPoland
32
W

Referee Profile

Iván Barton, El Salvador · 5 matches analysed

3.8Avg Yellows
4.0Avg Cards
27.1Avg Fouls
Stricter than 47% of referees analysed

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group F

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NetherlandsNetherlands321010:4+67WWD
2JapanJapan31207:3+45DWD
3SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
4TunisiaTunisia30032:12-100LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NetherlandsNetherlands310:47
2JapanJapan37:35
3SwedenSweden37:74
4TunisiaTunisia32:120

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0
Canada0
Morocco3
Paraguay0
France1
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland04
Colombia03
On penalties
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway10
England11
After extra time
Argentina12
Switzerland10
After extra time
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Spain01
Argentina00
After extra time
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0

Japan vs Sweden Prediction

As a knockout-stage World Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Japan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Japan and Sweden have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.